On this day 25 years ago (Commentary Thread)

[chico20854]

December 28, 1996

another day with nothing official, but unofficially:

There is a major sortie of US Pacific Fleet carriers from their homeports in Pearl Harbor, San Diego and Puget Sound. The deployments are under EMCOM (emissions control, with all radiating electronics turned off) and in the pre-dawn hours.

Soviet, Polish and Czech units make tactical withdrawals to align with the new defense line. The evacuation of civilians from Berlinn continues as the battle lines shift to the eastern side of the city and Soviet artillery bombardments intensify.

Game wardens patrolling the woods outside of Bodenmais (in Bavaria near the Czech border) report a group of armed men in the distance. A hunt by BGS Border Guards and territorial troops fails to locate the men.

The US 197th Field Artillery Brigade (New Hampshire National Guard) is declared operational in Norway.

The Pact offensive in Romania stalls as Bulgarian troops are withdrawn from the southern front (leaving it static, with three Bulgarian bridgeheads on the north bank of the Danube), allowing Romanian reinforcements to be shifted to the northeastern and northwester fronts. The Pact advance is also slowed by inadequate numbers of Soviet troops and the poor training and materiel condition of the Hungarian force.

A 757 carrying infantry replacements fresh from Ft Benning, Georgia disappears over the mid-Atlantic; postwar research reveals that it was shot down by a SAM fired by a Soviet commerce raider.

NASA announces a revamp of its launch schedule; all scientific missions are cancelled and future missions will be to support the war effort.

[chico20854]

December 29, 1996

Tehran falls to Soviet troops after paratroopers seize the airport and Pasdaran forces flee. Pasdaran leaders call for their fighters to continue fighting the Soviets and encourages those separated from their units to rally to defend the holy city of Qom.

Unofficial:

NATO defense ministers (including the Jugoslav and Romanian ministers flown out at low level but not the French, Belgian, Greek and Italians) begin a meeting at the heavily guarded NATO command bunker in Northwood, England to discuss war aims andexecution. They receive status updates from SACEUR and SACLANT as well as many of the coordinating bodies (on shipping and air transport, defense production, civil relief and allocation of vital materials).

The Polish 12th Armored Division (rebuilding after being destroyed in China) is declared "limited operational" and deployed along the German-Polish border west of its garrison in Szczecin.

German and American troops reach the outskirts of Dresden, advancing against disorganized Pact opposition. The Pact effort in Germany is hampered by NATO air attacks on its lines of communication, which are further disrupted by attacks by East German units that found themselves isolated behind enemy lines by the East German coup.

NATO air forces launch an offensive air sweep over Poland in an attempt to lure surviving Soviet and Polish fighters into dogfights and surface to air missile batteries to reveal their locations so they can be attacked by accompanying Wild Weasels.

Additional trains of tanks and other military vehicles, the prewar complement of the 1st Infantry Division, arrive at the Bayonne Military Ocean Terminal, an Army-operated port in New Jersey. The 1st ID fell in on vehicles from POMCUS storage in Europe, leaving a complete complement behind in Kansas. Those were now being sent to Europe as shipping space permitted as replacements for vehicles lost in combat.

The Panamanian flagged bulk carrier Empire Pilot, carrying a cargo of Brazilian corn to neutral Finland, is sunk by a Soviet submarine 500 km west of Gibraltar. Canadian fishing vessels report unidentified warships east of Newfoundland.

Soviet and Vietnamese troops return to their start lines along the Chinese border, ending their incursion at the cost of 1200 Soviet and 800 Vietnamese soldiers' lives. The effort tied down a dozen Chinese divisions, three of which are released for transit to the fighting to the north.

[chico20854]

December 30, 1996

Nothing official for today, but unofficially:

The Battle of Dresden. NATO forces surround the city, exploiting the boundary between Soviet and Czech troops to the south of town. As American forces rush forward, the Polish 6th Air Assault Division is landed by helicopter behind the American tanks, amidst the 2nd Armored Division's artillery and rear area. The rear area troops fight valiantly against the elite Poles, but the assault has to be broken off. The American armored and mechanized battalions turn around, and in a confused nighttime melee drive off the paratroops. The decimation of the Polish unit buys time for the withdrawal of Pact troops from the city.

Elsewhere in East Germany, Allied forces continue fierce house to house fighting in East Berlin, while along the Baltic coast the remnants of the East German Navy attempt to interdict Pact evacuation and resupply efforts.

Norwegian and American troops reach the Soviet border southeast of Kirkenes, the retreating 6th Army still withdrawing over the frozen tundra to the east of town.

Convoy 109 departs Jacksonville, Florida. It will travel up the east coast before crossing the Atlantic.

The transport ship USNS Pollux, returning unescorted from Europe at its top speed of 32 knots, reports being pursued by a Soviet raider, which could not keep up with the speedy transport. A B-52 sortie from Loring AFB's 42nd Bomb Wing locates the Krivak II-class frigate Bessmennyy nearby and sinks it with 3 Harpoon missiles.

US Navy SEEBEEs arrive at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands Airport in the Indian Ocean to begin upgrading the facility to support the planned deployment of a P-3 patrol squadron.

The Akula II-class SSN K-453 is delivered in Severomorsk and rushed into Northern Fleet service. (The boat was incomplete, but the shipyard management knew that they would receive a bonus if it was delivered before year-end; the naval crew was responsible for bringing the boat up to operational standard).

Japan's foreign ministry announces the establishment of 1000 nautical mile Maritime Security Zone around its home islands. The Self Defense Forces (Air and Maritime) will actively patrol this zone and intercept hostile forces.

[Targan]

December 30, 1996

US Navy SEEBEEs arrive at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands Airport in the Indian Ocean to begin upgrading the facility to support the planned deployment of a P-3 patrol squadron.

This bit is of interest to me. The Cocos Keeling Islands are administered by my state jurisdiction (delegated authority from the federal government). The islands have a very contentious internal political history (a single white family ruled there like kings for 150 years, over a population of imported Malay workers).

There was a small military presence on the islands during WWI and a much bigger presence during WWII, including military airfields and bomber squadrons.

But the interesting part in terms of this T2K timeline is that under normal circumstances the stationing of US forces on the islands around that time would probably have been hugely contentious, but for three important factors:

1) The rapidly escalating WWIII.
2) The Liberal-National Coalition had won federal government in March of that year.
3) The Liberal-National Coalition retained government in Western Australia just 16 days before, but with an increased majority.

The new federal government was led by Liberal Party Prime Minister John Howard, who was and is hugely pro-US (the Australian Liberal Party historically has always been so to some degree). With the Liberal Party also now having an absolute majority in the Western Australian Parliament, any political opposition to the decision to station US forces on the Cocos Keeling Islands would have been totally ignored.

[chico20854]

This bit is of interest to me. The Cocos Keeling Islands are administered by my state jurisdiction (delegated authority from the federal government). The islands have a very contentious internal political history (a single white family ruled there like kings for 150 years, over a population of imported Malay workers).

There was a small military presence on the islands during WWI and a much bigger presence during WWII, including military airfields and bomber squadrons.

But the interesting part in terms of this T2K timeline is that under normal circumstances the stationing of US forces on the islands around that time would probably have been hugely contentious, but for three important factors:

1) The rapidly escalating WWIII.
2) The Liberal-National Coalition had won federal government in March of that year.
3) The Liberal-National Coalition retained government in Western Australia just 16 days before, but with an increased majority.

The new federal government was led by Liberal Party Prime Minister John Howard, who was and is hugely pro-US (the Australian Liberal Party historically has always been so to some degree). With the Liberal Party also now having an absolute majority in the Western Australian Parliament, any political opposition to the decision to station US forces on the Cocos Keeling Islands would have been totally ignored.

I'm glad I caught your itnerest! I try to put things in that will be interesting to everyone!

I read up a little on the Cocos Keeling Islands, and saw that the RAAF regularly launched P-3 patrols from there as well as a think tank proposal about 10 years ago to construct a major Diego Garcia-type facility with hardened aircraft shelters and a pair of two-mile runways. Much more than what I imagined the SEEBEEs would do, which was more oriented towards the housing, administrative and logistical upgrades needed to equip the existing airport with the minimal facilities needed to support the aircraft and their associated personnel.

I try not to delve too deeply into the political realm other than outcomes, and honestly I hadn't put a lot of thought into the domestic political implications. One additional thought I would throw out there would be - does the public (and even members of the political and military leadership) know that this is even occurring The islands are isolated and have a small population. With wartime emergency measures, the civilian population could be evacuated or the communications links turned off. As time goes on these things become more difficult to conceal, but there were lots of secret agreements and plans that had been put in place in the Cold War, and maybe this was one of them

I recently acquired a copy of "Cold War Warriors: Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion Operations 1968-1991" and hope to find time to read through it and put in some things about RAAF P-3 operations, as well as anything it may have about plans for cooperation with the US.

[chico20854]

December 31, 1996

Nothing official for the last day of 1996, but unofficially:

As the year of 1996 closes out, the world has taken an ominous turn. The Sino-Soviet War w,hich while massive, was limited to East Asia, has become a worldwide conflagration, with war all along the borders of the Soviet empire, from Kirkenes on the Norwegian Border, through Berlin, Romania and Tehran to Manchuria, with ships and aircraft on and over the high seas around the world in flames. Optimists hope that the war will reach a negotiated settlement soon, grateful that fears that nuclear war would erupted immediately had not come to pass, while pessimists see every day of the ongoing war as just a momentary pause before the inevitable holocaust.

British, American and German troops drive Soviet and Polish troops out of the city limits of Berlin, but fierce house-to-house combat continues in the eastern suburbs.

The Soviet anti-satellite complex in Zelenchukskaya (known to the West as Dushanbe) attempts its first operational mission, partially blinding a KH-17 photo reconaissance satellite with coordinated strikes from multiple lasers.

The US War Production Coordination Board compiles its list of major end items produced in the US for the year. It includes:

AH-64 attack helicopter 144
AV-8B aircraft 72
A-6F aircraft 72
F-16C/D aircraft 325
F-15E aircraft 144
F-14D aircraft 96
KC-10 conversion aircraft 24
P-7 aircraft 24
SH-2G helicopter 48
SH-60B/F helicopter 60
UH-60 helicopter 145
AH-1G helicopter 180
OH-58D helicopter conversion 145
CH-47D helicopter 48
CH-53E helicopter 24
OH-6D helicopter 125
M-2A2 Bradley IFV 792
M-1A2 tank 1,080
LAV-75 AFV 480
LAV-25 APC 606
M-109A6 howitzer 540
AAVP-7 APC 600
AMRAAM missile 3,600
Sidewinder missile 8,400
Harpoon missile 660
Patriot missile 840
HARM missile 6,500
Hellfire missile 6,720
Maverick missile 14,400
Phoenix missile 420
Standard ER missile 480
Standard MR missile 845
Stinger missile 11,500
Tomahawk cruise missile 540
TOW II missile 30,000
Peacekeeper missile 48
MLRS rocket 36,000
4.2" mortar rounds 600,000
155mm FASCAM rounds 85,000
8" HE rounds 60,000
2.75" rockets 540,000
Volcano mine canisters 48,000
AT-4 LAWs 180,000
transport ships 25
naval combatant ships 10

[Olefin]

You need to add 144 M88A2 tank retrievers - used to work at BAE in York and we could ramp the line up to 12 per month quickly with a max of 18 per month on the single production line if we went to two shifts - and we were capable of making brand new hulls instead of just upgrading old M88 hulls

If you are looking at V2.2 you would have M8 AGS Bufords being made at BAE in York PA - that line was built to make 12 per month at low rate and we could have ramped it up to as many as 36 per month if we went to two shifts

As for the Bradley's - they would have been most likely making new hulls as well as upgrading old vehicles at York PA and doing refurbs at our facility in Lemont Furnace - that plant opened in 1993 and probably would have been where damaged Bradleys would have been sent to get them repaired and back in the fight

I worked for BAE on the Bradley, M88 and M109 line from 2008 to 2014 - talked to guys who worked there in the 90's

[cawest]

as the OH-58 are moved to D's. or they are pulled out of Fort Rucker. The role of scout and trainer could fall to something like a Robinson 44. it is in production in 1993. Also, Cessna could start modifing T-37 to the A-37 Dragon fly. Also by now Davis-Monthan would have Aircraft Maintenance and Regeneration Group sending out its first craft now that this is not a short war.

[chico20854]

January 1, 1997

The meeting of NATO defense ministers concludes, issuing a statement that NATO heads of state have declared support for a Polish government in exile. The London-based government had operated in exile since September 1939 (when it had been run out of Poland by the Nazis) and still retained some items that supported its legitimacy - the presidential banner, the presidential and state seals, the presidential sashes, and the original text of the 1935 Constitution.

The British 1st Airborne Brigade is formed at Aldershot, England.

Unofficial:

photo
The US Navy orders the reactivation of Forrest Sherman and Decatur-class destroyers, held in mothballs for over 10 years (including DD-933, the USS Barry, which was a museum ship at the Navy Yard in Washington, DC). The reactivation places a further burden on shipyards already overloaded with ships damaged in the fighting in the Norwegian Sea, but the 17 ships would partially replace the losses of the last month.

The declaration by NATO heads of state also includes a call for the neutralization of the Soviet threat in the high north and authorization for NATO forces to sieze Murmansk.

The last Belgian forces are repatriated from Norway, where they had fought as part of the Allied Command Europe Mobile Force (Land). Tensions between Belgium and NATO rise as disputes arise about the disposition of property, personnel and equipment in Belgium and Germany. (An example of the tit-for-tat is the Belgian refusal to allow NATO to remove office equipment from the headquarters in Mons in retaliation for the German Ministry of Transport to authorise the transportation of ammunition stocks from ammunition dumps in Germany, ammunition that happens to be increasingly needed at the front and which was partially funded by NATO).

Turkish forces break out of the mountainous terrain along the Black Sea cost, capturing the town of Grudovo (Sredets), in position to threaten the road and rail lines to the vital port of Burgas.

NATO sealift planners conclude a major effort to adjust their fleet resources, eliminating the sizeable Greek merchant fleet and other nations that have left NATO and adding in the smaller Jugoslav, East German and Romanian merchant fleets, as well as the couple dozen Pact ships seized in port or on the high seas since the outbreak of war. The Romanian fleet is the most problematic, with nearly 40 percent in the Black Sea, mostly stuck in port lest they be sunk by the superior Soviet Black Sea Fleet while racing for the Bosporus.

The US submarine Bluefish slips through the Bosporus submerged underneath a supporting Turkish navy transport, en route to start a campaign against Soviet shipping in the Black Sea.

[chico20854]

You need to add 144 M88A2 tank retrievers - used to work at BAE in York and we could ramp the line up to 12 per month quickly with a max of 18 per month on the single production line if we went to two shifts - and we were capable of making brand new hulls instead of just upgrading old M88 hulls

If you are looking at V2.2 you would have M8 AGS Bufords being made at BAE in York PA - that line was built to make 12 per month at low rate and we could have ramped it up to as many as 36 per month if we went to two shifts

As for the Bradley's - they would have been most likely making new hulls as well as upgrading old vehicles at York PA and doing refurbs at our facility in Lemont Furnace - that plant opened in 1993 and probably would have been where damaged Bradleys would have been sent to get them repaired and back in the fight

I worked for BAE on the Bradley, M88 and M109 line from 2008 to 2014 - talked to guys who worked there in the 90's

Thanks! I hadn't seen a number on the M88 line in the 1980s documents I was working off of. For the Bradley, I kept the Santa Clara plant going (it was shut down as a result of the merger of FMC and BMY in the post-Cold War defense industry consolidation), so York is concentrating on M109 and M88, plus the M8 for the v2.2 timeline. I also have a plant in Johnstown subcontracted to help with M109 hull work.

I didn't know about the Lemont Furnace facility. I'll also have a lot of repairs done at the Army facilities, Mainz in Germany (plus the POMCUS sites, once emptied, the crews and faciltities there could do some repair work), Red River, Anniston and the others in CONUS.

One thing helping the US production is the massive orders for ordnance placed by the Chinese in late 1995. That pays for the activation of the second shifts at the existing munitions plants as well as the outfitting of additional mobilization plants. I have the Atlanta, Leeds, Missouri and Framingham GM plants, Bridgeport CT ammo line, DeKalb tractor plant, Indiana Army Ammunition plant, Madison TN truck plant and a few others (plus shipyards) all coming on line to meet Chinese demand. Unfortunately for the Chinese, when the US enters the war much of the output from these plants gets fed into the maw of the US military.

[chico20854]

as the OH-58 are moved to D's. or they are pulled out of Fort Rucker. The role of scout and trainer could fall to something like a Robinson 44. it is in production in 1993. Also, Cessna could start modifing T-37 to the A-37 Dragon fly. Also by now Davis-Monthan would have Aircraft Maintenance and Regeneration Group sending out its first craft now that this is not a short war.

For the OH-58Ds, I had envisioned continuing conversions of OH-58C models. When you look back at the budget & planning documents from the 80s, the goal was stated as 477 -D models converted from -A and -C models, rather than the TH-57 trainers from Rucker. The gap in scout helicopter numbers is partially filled by fielding MD-500s from the reopened production line in Long Beach to National Guard division cavalry squadrons.

I'll certainly look into the Robinson 44! Later in 1997 as things get even more desperate I even have the CH-54 flying crane go back into production, as a small company had bought the rights and design, remaining components and the complete tooling IRL and had manufactured new aircraft for the first time in decades.

I don't have a lot of additional A-37s coming out, since the USAF had been shifting the last of those aircraft out of the reserve components in the 90s. They aren't that useful in a high-threat air defense environment, and I figure there were a good quantity of them in AMARC to replace losses from the few units that still used them.

I had Davis-Monthan in high gear for all of 1996, although primarily to support sales to allies. With Iran resuming friendly relations with the US in the years prior to the war, their air force could make ready use of the F-5s and F-4s at AMARC. The Chinese are desperate for aircraft following the devastation of their air force, so the skies of the US in 1996 are full of PLAAF pilots flying older F-4s, A-7s and A-4s pulled out of AMARC. I even have the 115th Tactical Fighter Group activated as an active-duty USAF F-4E unit to augment continental air defense with airframes pulled from Davis-Monthan.

[chico20854]

January 2, 1997

Scattered workers uprisings occur across Poland as a result of the Polish government in exile gaining NATO recognition. ZOMO riot control units quickly mobilize to suppress the rioting following strong words from the Soviet ambassador.

unofficially:

Convoy 202 arrives in Honolulu/Pearl Harbor, detaching two cargo ships and gaining two others as well as the USN tanker Ponchatoula and an additional escort, the frigate USS Reasoner.

photo
The German hard rock band the Spyders announces its "Winds of Change Tour" to celebrate the liberation of East Germany and raise money for relief for East German civilians; many of the band's most ardent fans are unable to attend the concerts as they had been called up for service in the Bundeswehr.

The last Soviet troops are driven out of Norway east of Kirkenes.

photo
South Korean lines northeast of Seoul buckle and, in a handful of sectors, break. The North Korean 1st Shock Army commits its elite 820th Armored Corps to exploit the breakthrough.

Pasdaran troops continue their resistance, gradually withdrawing as the Soviet advance slows. Transcaucasian Front's supply lines are getting longer and the Front's immediate stockpiles of fuel and munitions, especially chemical weapons, has been depleted and the Front commander, Colonel General Suryakin, was forced to beg STAVKA for the trucks and supplies he needed, in competition with Front commanders from around the USSR, all needing the same resources.

The Commander of Frontal Aviaition sought guidance from STAVKA about the need for future pilots and the allocation of aircraft and their crew. Southwestern TVD's handful of fighter regiments had been able to suppress the Romanian and Jugoslav air forces, but were insufficient to provide air support to the bogged-down Red Army troops in Romania. Prewar plans provided that trainer aircraft assigned to pilot training colleges throughout the southwestern USSR be transferred to the Balkans, where it was expected that air defenses would be less formidable than on the Central Front. Doing so, however, meant that new pilot training would be halted. STAVKA replied than the need for pilots was intense and that the Army would have to advance using the blood of its infantry, grateful that Frontal Aviation and the PVO were keeping NATO airpower at bay. Anyone who complained was to be transferred to the German front, where NATO fighters were gradually establishing complete control of the skies over the front lines.

[Olefin]

Thanks! I hadn't seen a number on the M88 line in the 1980s documents I was working off of. For the Bradley, I kept the Santa Clara plant going (it was shut down as a result of the merger of FMC and BMY in the post-Cold War defense industry consolidation), so York is concentrating on M109 and M88, plus the M8 for the v2.2 timeline. I also have a plant in Johnstown subcontracted to help with M109 hull work.

I didn't know about the Lemont Furnace facility. I'll also have a lot of repairs done at the Army facilities, Mainz in Germany (plus the POMCUS sites, once emptied, the crews and faciltities there could do some repair work), Red River, Anniston and the others in CONUS.

One thing helping the US production is the massive orders for ordnance placed by the Chinese in late 1995. That pays for the activation of the second shifts at the existing munitions plants as well as the outfitting of additional mobilization plants. I have the Atlanta, Leeds, Missouri and Framingham GM plants, Bridgeport CT ammo line, DeKalb tractor plant, Indiana Army Ammunition plant, Madison TN truck plant and a few others (plus shipyards) all coming on line to meet Chinese demand. Unfortunately for the Chinese, when the US enters the war much of the output from these plants gets fed into the maw of the US military.

Lemont Furnace did refurb work on M109 and Bradleys - versus rebuilds at York for both - that facility wasnt there when they wrote Allegheny Uprising - so would be a nice addition where the players are sent to get parts stored there for M-109 and Bradleys and find a vehicle there that they could bring back to working status using parts stored there

[chico20854]

January 3, 1997

The US 2nd Infantry Division's 1st and 2nd Brigades (both mechanized) engage North Korean mechanized forces, composed largely of the 820th Mechanized Corps, northeast of Seoul.

unofficial:

The North Korean command commits the 815th Mechanized Corps as a follow-on force. USAF surveillance aircraft note the movement of vehicles, and G Battery, 37th Field Artillery, 2nd ID's MLRS battery, plasters the area with submunitions, slowing the North Korean reinforcements. The US commander then lands 2nd ID's 3rd (light) Brigade in rough terrain to the North Korean flank, where they unleash a hail of Viper/Tank Breaker missiles into the attacking armored troops.

Convoy 109 departs New York, bound for Newfoundland before starting the North Atlantic crossing.

The Turkish 1st Army receives reinforcements, largely taken from 2nd Army on the Mediterranean coast. Bulgarian resistance is stiffening as more troops are shifted from the Romanian front. The Bulgarian Communist Party sends an urgent request to the USSR for military assistance as the impovershed country's economy slows following the callup of so many men of prime working age and the nation's stockpiles are rapidly being depleted.

Fighting continues in the eastern oukstirks of Berlin, with NATO gains measured by hundreds of meters. Along the Baltic coast progress is more rapid, as Polish troops fall back to their border and the ports of Stralsund and Sassnitz fall, shutting down Pact supply/evacuation points.

Following a disappointing rotation at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California by the 1st Brigade, 49th Armored Division, the Department of the Army decides to pull the entire division from the deployment timeline and re-equip it with M1-series vehicles rather than the M60A4s it fielded. In a separate but related action, the brigade commander, two battalion commanders and seventeen other officers are relieved and the entire division is ordered to begin an intensive re-training regime in addition to the retraining and reorganizing needed for the transition to new Tables of Organization and Equipment with the new tanks.

[cawest]

is there a reason that 1st Brigade, 49th Armored Division did poorly at NTC and then was updated from M60A4s to M1s. i would think that the newer tanks would be used on a unit going to Germany or other combat zones.