OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Yeah, the Ukrainians better have something else planned besides attacking well prepared defensive positions head-on.

I really hope that the UAF HQ staff has studied the failure of Operation Citadel, and don't end up making the same mistakes that the Germans did at Kursk back in 1943.

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[Raellus]

Russian Defenses

Reuters did an awesome piece about Russian fortifications in Ukraine, featuring maps, satellite imagery, and really cool sketches (including cutaways).

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/COUNTEROFFENSIVE/mopakddwbpa/

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[bash]

Reuters did an awesome piece about Russian fortifications in Ukraine, featuring maps, satellite imagery, and really cool sketches (including cutaways).

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/COUNTEROFFENSIVE/mopakddwbpa/

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The illustrations are awesome and the piece overall was very good. I wonder though how well Russia's defenses are actually put together. I've seen a lot of videos of the fighting around Bahkmut and the Russian trenches are a far cry from the Platonic ideal of US trench warfare manuals.

Im sure not all Russian fortifications will be as bad as the more hastily dug ones in the Bahkmut region. However there's likely to be highly variable quality across the front. If Ukraine has some good intelligence on the quality of the defenses it will likely inform their avenues of attack.

All things being equal it seems you want to attack the area defended by the 401st Lazy Diggers instead of the 302nd Defensive Position Experts.

[Heffe]

I seem to recall an article a week or two ago about Cavoli stating explicitly that the US has been helping Ukraine with counteroffensive planning. Which I suppose is probably to have been expected, but it was nice to hear it called out so plainly.

As for the counteroffensive, assuming one really happens, I imagine it will be picking up speed before long.

In southern Ukraine, the soil will be dry from around mid-April, then two weeks later in the Donetsk region, and from mid-May in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region further north...

[Vespers War]

Ukraine looks like they're using the end of Mud Season to chip away at Russian logistics by striking oil depots with drones. Beyond limiting fuel availability for combat vehicles, it could also harm resupply by limiting the availability of trucks for final mile haulage from railheads to units. Logistics isn't flashy like a fighter jet or a new tank, but it's a critical function.

[Heffe]

The Ukrainian MOD has been reporting a fairly large daily uptick in destroyed Russian artillery and MLRS systems for the last couple of weeks. Seems like Ukraine is focused on counterbattery operations and destroying Russian supply lines at the moment.

There's also been reports of limited counterattacks / recon in force probes happening in various areas along the southern front, around Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Avdiivka. Efforts are likely to help shape the battlefield as Ukrainian operations continue to ramp up.

[Raellus]

Ukrainian Falcons

The UK is preparing to host a Ukrainian pilot training program, reportedly to prepare them to fly the F-16. Belgium is reportedly following suit. The latter makes more sense, as Belgium has operated Falcons since the 1980s. The UK, on the other hand, never operated the type, making their contribution somewhat curious.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/f-16s-will-be-focus-of-ukrainian-pilot-training-in-u-k

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/belgium-ready-to-train-ukrainian-pilots-to-fly-f-16s

It's still not certain that Ukraine will receive F-16s and, if so, what type and from whom. Even if the UAF is given F-16s, the transfer won't occur anytime soon- it will be several months, at the earliest- definitely too late to assist in Ukraine's long-awaited spring offensive.

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[micromachine]

F-16 availability

How many F-16 are available on the world market at the moment

I know that Norway just retired theirs at the beginning of last year and I am sure that there a quite a few at Davis-Monthan AFB under the care of the 309th. My tally from Google Maps was in the vicinity of 284 airframes. I am not sure if these are included in the Flight Global, which was 922 airframes.

The balance of the world's users have (excluding Venezuela) is 1746 airframes, and I would look at the F-16AM/BM that have spread from the RNAF worldwide as a potential source such as Chile, Jordan and Thailand for small counts of airframes in the same configuration

The real need is for pilots and platforms to fly in a short amount of time.

[Raellus]

How many F-16 are available on the world market at the moment

IIRC (although it could have been a different one), one of the pieces I linked to reported that Norway has already shot down the idea of donating its Falcons, which are presently being retired, to Ukraine. AFAIK, so far, no nation has come forth and definitively declared that it will be donating/selling Falcons to Ukraine. The answer to that vital question remains up in the air. That said, I doubt that NATO members would be preparing to train UAF pilots on the F-16 as they are if a plan to provide them with the aircraft isn't already more or less in place.

Yesterday, I read somewhere that the US has dropped any objections to third party nations passing their F-16s along to Ukraine, so that's a positive development. The piece linked below has some details about what a pilot training program might look like, and puts a surprising four month timeline on the process.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/basic-f-16-training-for-ukrainian-pilots-could-take-just-four-months

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[Vespers War]

Norway only has 28 (retired) F-16 left, IIRC. They sold 12 to Draken for that company's DACT flights, and Romania bought 32 last year.

The Dutch are in the process of retiring their last 68 F-16 and have said they're open to providing aircraft to Ukraine.

Belgium is starting to retire their F-16s this summer, although that process will take until 2028 and they're not expected to sell them on because the airframes are extremely close to their maximum service lives.

The Danes were going to retire their F-16s next year, but have extended their service life through 2027.

I don't know of anyone else who's in the middle of retiring their F-16. Many (if not most) of the countries that have them don't have anything newer to serve as a replacement. Particularly for countries that aren't geographically close to the conflict, I have a hard time seeing them weakening their own defenses to bolster Ukraine without assured replacement of the provided aircraft.

[pmulcahy11b]

UAE is in the process of replacing part of their F-16s with F-35s. It may one of the reasons Zelinskyy is visiting the Arab League right now.

[micromachine]

UAE F-35

I believe the UAE government cancelled the order for the F35 in favor of the Dassualt Rafale F4. This seems to make sense as they are already a high end F16 operator (Block 60, which they funded development of), and they have experience with the Mirage 2000.

[Raellus]

Has Bakhmut Fallen

Prick-ozhin claims that Wagner forces have captured Bakhmut. The head of the UAF denies this.

https://apnews.com/article/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-da2fc05b818b3dcc39decd40b17d2d8b

Obviously, take Prick-ozhin's claims with a grain of salt. However, if what he says is true, that's not necessarily a bad thing for Ukraine, strategically-speaking. Reports earlier this week (confirmed) indicated that the UAF had gained ground on both Russian flanks, north and south of the city. If Bakhmut has indeed been captured, Wagner and the Russians may have laid a trap for themselves in the salient they've created. I'd love to see the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive slice through the shoulders of the bulge, trap Wagner and the Russian forces now in the Bakhmut salient, and tear a huge hole in the Russian's lines. From what I've read over the past couple of months, the Russians haven't fortified the front lines around Bakhmut has much as they have the neck of the Crimean peninsula. If that is indeed the case, it makes a lot of sense for Ukraine to try to breach the Russian lines around Bakhmut and exploit same with deep penetrations where their new, Leopard II-equiped maneuver brigades can take advantage of the open ground.

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[Vespers War]

Yeah, the UAE has 80 Rafale F4 on order for delivery starting in 2027. Reports from around the time the deal was signed in late 2021 were that the Rafale would replace UAE's remaining Mirage 2000 and serve alongside the F-16.

[Targan]

Reports earlier this week (confirmed) indicated that the UAF had gained ground on both Russian flanks, north and south of the city. If Bakhmut has indeed been captured, Wagner and the Russians may have laid a trap for themselves in the salient they've created. I'd love to see the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive slice through the shoulders of the bulge, trap Wagner and the Russian forces now in the Bakhmut salient, and tear a huge hole in the Russian's lines.

This is precisely what I've assumed the Ukrainians are doing. Wagner are now in complete control of... what A giant pile of rubble Meanwhile they're about to be completely cut off from resupply and quite possibly wiped out to a man. Which will no doubt be thoroughly satisfying for both the Ukrainians and the Russian Army.