OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[pmulcahy11b]

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

[Targan]

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

[Heffe]

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

Completely agreed. The mafia lieutenant just made the don look like a weak old fool - it's not going to go well for anyone involved. Also Targan, your Machiavelli quote signature is particularly apt for a number of reasons on this one.

[ToughOmbres]

Prigozhin and Wagner Group.

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

Quite correct in my view. Even in Byelorussia, Prigozhin should avoid walking by open windows, riding on escalators or eating anything lest he suffer a dreadful "accident" like so many former Kremlin plutocrats have recently.

[Raellus]

Ukraine Recaptures Territory Held by Russia Since 2014

Re Prig, he's probably a dead man walking. There's still a chance that Putin gives Prig an opportunity to redeem himself by allowing him to continue to direct Wagner forces from Belarus. That way, both parties can have their cake and eat it too.

It's really hard to see Putin keeping Prig around indefinitely, though. One article I read yesterday suggested that Prig might try to run as a candidate in the next presidential election. If Putin plans to run for reelection again (and I've seen nothing to suggest that he won't), I can't see him allowing that to happen.

Now, here's some good news:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-recaptures-territory-held-by-russia-since-2014/ar-AA1d6XhPocid=msedgntp&cvid=34a7a95020124701b87cb166bef42633&ei=17

Hopefully, this is the first of much more to come.

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[Raellus]

Cluster F'd

I'm pleased to see the US finally acquiesce to sending DPCIM shells to Ukraine. The timing could have been a lot better, though. DPCIMs are more effective against trench systems than conventional artillery rounds; some versions are deadly for masses of armored vehicles in the open. If the Ukrainians had those thousands of pledged DPCIM rounds 1-2 months ago, I suspect their summer offensive would have made even more progress by now, with fewer UAF casualties. Better late than never, I guess.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-sending-hundreds-of-thousands-of-cluster-munitions

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[kcdusk]

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

[chico20854]

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

I would generally agree except that the Ukrainians are going to dump those cluster munitions into Russian defensive lines that are already filled with unmarked minefields and UXO... that land is already going to have to be cleared before civilians enter it, whether or not there are unexploded bomblets in it.

On a practical side, DP-ICM are much more effective than HE rounds. Given that the supply of howitzer barrels is running out in the West, the cluster munitions allow the Ukrainians to keep their artillery going longer before their guns are shot out.

Just my opinion...

[Heffe]

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

I felt that way for a bit as well, but I have to keep reminding myself that Russia's aims still haven't shifted from "total subjugation and absorption of Ukraine and her people". The way I see it, Ukraine has to weigh the risk of future injury to her population, vs. Ukraine simply not existing as an independent, sovereign nation. On top of that, Russia has shown numerous times so far in the war that they're more than happy to waste Ukrainian civilians themselves, and no doubt Ukraine is already going to have to spend many year de-mining their country after this is all over.

The ugliest of calculus here breaks down to "How many lives will be lost to future UXO explosions vs. how many lives might be saved by speeding up the end of this conflict through the use of cluster munitions"

[Tegyrius]

I would generally agree except that the Ukrainians are going to dump those cluster munitions into Russian defensive lines that are already filled with unmarked minefields and UXO... that land is already going to have to be cleared before civilians enter it, whether or not there are unexploded bomblets in it.

I have a professional contact who's worked with demining and UXO teams in Syria. His analysis was much the same - any use of cluster munitions by Ukraine will be a minor incremental addition to the work already ahead.

- C.

[kcdusk]

I was thinking the long view success would be not to use them, but happy to defer to those more in the know. Its still a case of rock and hard place!

[Targan]

Ukrainian pilots will start training on the F-16 in Romania next month. Come March next year when F-16s tear into the Russian Air Force, the Russians are going to need to issue a whole lot of brown trousers.

[Ursus Maior]

The bridge over the Kerch has come under attack again. Currently, automotive traffic in both directions is down, due to the bridge having collapsed. The railtracks seem to hold, so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/traffic-stopped-crimean-bridge-due-emergency-russian-backed-governor-2023-07-17/

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1680796880551178240

[Raellus]

Counter-counter Offensive

The bridge over the Kerch has come under attack again. Currently, automotive traffic in both directions is down, due to the bridge having collapsed. The railtracks seem to hold, so far.

When I first saw the headlines, I assumed that something like Storm Shadow ASMs had been used to strike the bridge but apparently it was drone boats.

In other news, Ukrainian intel reports a build up of Russian forces (100k troops, hundreds of AFVs) near Kharkiv. This could be bad for Ukraine, as it threatens the flanks of some of their current offensive operations, and it will probably require the UAF to shift forces earmarked for, or already committed to said in order to meet the new threat. On the other hand, it might a positive for the Ukrainians as it will get a substantial number of Russians out of their fixed defensive positions and out into the open (where US cluster munitions could have a really big impact). At this point, I would bet on the Ukrainians to gain the upper hand in maneuver warfare.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-claims-massive-russian-buildup-near-kharkiv

WARNING:
If you scroll down through the article, there are links to two video clips of Anti-Russian Chechen fighters, allegedly operating in Belgorod Oblast, ambushing a lone Russian military truck. They blur out the gore (thank goodness), but it doesn't leave a whole lot to the imagination, and some viewers may find it disturbing. I only mention it here because every T2k game I've ever been involved with (as player, Ref, reader, writer, etc.) has featured at least one ambush of a "Russian" convoy of some sort.

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[Homer]

I only mention it here because every T2k game I've ever been involved with (as player, Ref, reader, writer, etc.) has featured at least one ambush of a "Russian" convoy of some sort.

Good single vehicle pickoff. There's some extended footage of the patrol moving up, presumabley before passage of lines or leaving an harbor area, and movement to the ambush position. I got a rough count of 16, with 2x PKM, an RPG launcher, a radio, and a three or more guys with LAW or RPG18/22 type weapons. Looks like an overnight at least based on the assault packs everyone was carrying and the foam mats, etc.. Understandably not a lot of detail on establishing the ambush, but it did show the go-pro guy prepping a LAW; I think he set it down again when they saw the truck and ended up engaging with his rifle. Lots of fire on the truck, but it looks like it made it some ways through the kill zone before it was stopped.

For all the good of accomplishing the presumptive mission, if your PCs walk the roads, bunch up and lollygaggle when "assaulting" across the kill zone of their linear ambush, fail to secure the far side before they start searching, or aren't moving expeditiously back to the ORP it's a good opportunity for the ambushed to rally, counterattack, and teach them a lesson. It did look like there was a man on the road able to look down the curve in the direction the truck came from. Not sure if that was PKM man, LAW guy, or if the flank security man/element had collapsed already. If they don't have flank security, anything can roll up on them.