OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Looming Stormclouds

David Axe at Forbes reported Saturday that the Russians have massed, "Five hundred tanks. More than 600 fighting vehicles. Hundreds of howitzers. Forty thousand troops. According to Ukraines eastern command, Russia has assembled a huge field army in eastern Ukraine opposite the free Ukrainian city of Kupyansk.

"Some or part of around 10 Ukrainian brigades, anchored in the north by the 3rd Tank Brigade and south by the 4th Tank Brigade, defends Kupyansk and surrounding settlements. Its a significant forces with perhaps 20,000 troops and hundreds of tanks, fighting vehicles and howitzers.

"But people and vehicles arent the problem for the Ukrainians. The problem is ammunition. The United States was one of the biggest donors of 155-millimeter shells for Ukraines best big guns"and pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress cut off aid to Ukraine last fall.

"Since then, Ukrainian forces daily allotment of shells has fallen by two-thirds to just 2,000 rounds. Russian forces meanwhile fire as many as 10,000 shells a day, thanks to a steady supply of ammo from North Korea."

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[Drgonzo2011]

Another Russian Warship Sunk

Apparently, Ukrainian naval drones (MaguraV5s) have taken out the Caezar Kunikov, a Project 775 landing craft. This is an older class of ships (the CK was commissioned in 1986) but it still highlights the vulnerability the Russians have vis a vis surface drone swarms. It will also be interesting to see how other navies learn (or fail to learn) the lessons of the Russo-Ukraine War. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update.../live-68251728

[kato13]

Always a nice surprise when this chart gets updated.

Full Size

[Vespers War]

Apparently, Ukrainian naval drones (MaguraV5s) have taken out the Caezar Kunikov, a Project 775 landing craft. This is an older class of ships (the CK was commissioned in 1986) but it still highlights the vulnerability the Russians have vis a vis surface drone swarms. It will also be interesting to see how other navies learn (or fail to learn) the lessons of the Russo-Ukraine War. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update.../live-68251728

The only newer large landing ships in the Black Sea Fleet are Yamal and Azov, also Project 775 landing ships (Azov is the improved 775M sub-class). The only newer class is Project 11711, and the two examples of that class are both in the Northern Fleet. The Black Sea Fleet still uses a pair of Project 1171 landing ships, a type which entered service in 1965 (they had three, but Saratov was sunk in 2022).

[Heffe]

I've heard that some of these ships were also tasked to help move equipment and cargo to Crimea when the Kerch Bridge suffered a strike a while back. I imagine they're probably still used in that capacity to some extent.

[Raellus]

Avdiivka Falls; R.I.P. Navalny

More disappointing and troubling stories from Ukraine these last few weeks.

Without getting too political, the US Congress is still dragging its feet on, if not downright blocking, legislation to provide Ukraine with more military aid. This boggles my mind. The party that used to be the most Hawkish vis-a-vis Containment and international intervention is fast becoming isolationist, if not pro-Russian. I imagine Nixon and Reagan spinning in their graves right now.

By all accounts, the Ukrainians are running very low on artillery ammunition. European manufacturing, despite efforts to gear up closer to wartime production levels, can't keep up with demand. On the other side, the Russians have received fresh infusions of North Korean and Iranian shells, rockets, and guided ballistic missiles.

The latter have been found to contain numerous essential, Western components. The same is true of Iranian drones and Russian missiles. Either the DPRK and Iranians have gotten really good at finding ways around sanctions that have been in place for decades, or unscrupulous Western firms are colluding with dangerous dictatorships, or both. Whatever the case, it's deeply disappointing news.

I'm also troubled by reports of Ukraine's continuing difficulties in recruiting soldiers.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-draft-b2ca1d0ecd72019be2217a653989fbc2

On the one hand, I totally get not wanting to fight in a war. After seeing photos and video of conditions on the front lines, I'd be in no hurry to enlist. On the other hand, this isn't some foreign adventure- this is a war for national survival. With Russia continuing to indiscriminately lob missiles at Ukrainian popular centers, this is an existential struggle. That said, the average age of replacement soldiers is reportedly in the 40s (WTF!). No amount of Western aid is going to save Ukraine if Ukrainians aren't willing to save their own country. That's easy for me to say, safe behind my keyboard, but I'm really struggling with the psychology of the average Ukrainian 18-35 year-old.

Now, an observation. I check in on the r/UkraineWarVideoReport Subreddit every few days. In the first year-and-a-half of the war, over half the videos showed ATGMs (Saint Javelin et al) taking out Russian vehicles. Over the last 6 months, those types of videos have all but disappeared. I haven't read anything about shortages of ATGMs, but pretty much every Russian-tank-getting-killed video stars a small drone as the killer. Have I missed a story about dwindling supplies of ATGMs Also, the number of Ukrainian artillery strike videos has gone way down over the past three months- this, of course, reinforces my first point re worsening shortages re shells and rockets.

Anyway, it's looking like Putin will win this war. The Donbass will remain under Russian occupation, and a land-bridge to Crimea (stolen in 2014) has been established. Will he go for more It's hard to say, at this point. If Ukrainians have the will and Western materiel support to continue to grind down Russian military power, then Russian probably won't make any more significant territorial gains. It's hard to see a better outcome than stalemate for Ukraine at this point. On the other hand, if Ukrainian will continues to wane, this could be the beginning of the end of Ukrainian nationhood.

I can't end on a sour note, so here's a positive: Ukraine somehow managed to shoot down at least six Sukhoi fighter-bombers in the last week or so.

Slava Ukraini!

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[Vespers War]

That said, the average age of replacement soldiers is reportedly in the 40s (WTF!). No amount of Western aid is going to save Ukraine if Ukrainians aren't willing to save their own country. That's easy for me to say, safe behind my keyboard, but I'm really struggling with the psychology of the average Ukrainian 18-35 year-old. -

One factor is probably that the age limits for conscription are 27 to 60, I believe in part because Ukraine is trying to avoid future demographic issues if men who are statistically unlikely to have had children are killed in combat. There is talk of lowering the lower limit to 25, but one of the things they're trying to avoid is not having a workforce in 20-25 years because too many young men got killed and there were no children to grow up to become workers. There's a need to balance immediate needs against long-term needs, and while I have no doubt they'd drop that conscription age if there was significant advancement by the Russians, as long as things are mostly static I don't expect much change.

[Heffe]

Something else to consider that I don't think has been mentioned - Ukraine seems to be doing their damndest to actually give their soldiers rotations from the front. From what I've been reading, this is in contrast to a lot of the Russian units which have been mobilized, and stuck at the front far beyond how a more reasonable military would handle them.

[Raellus]

One factor is probably that the age limits for conscription are 27 to 60, I believe in part because Ukraine is trying to avoid future demographic issues if men who are statistically unlikely to have had children are killed in combat. There is talk of lowering the lower limit to 25, but one of the things they're trying to avoid is not having a workforce in 20-25 years because too many young men got killed and there were no children to grow up to become workers. There's a need to balance immediate needs against long-term needs, and while I have no doubt they'd drop that conscription age if there was significant advancement by the Russians, as long as things are mostly static I don't expect much change.

That's remarkable foresight. I don't envy the Ukrainians this sort of lesser-of-two-evils calculus, but if the younger generation doesn't start pulling its weight here soon, there's a good chance they'll be enjoying their middle age in Russia's westernmost province.

Speaking of Russia, at least one Russian army seems to be evolving- or remembering, since the Soviet general staff developed 'Deep Battle' doctrine prior to WW2- their operational-level warfighting, launching an offensive on multiple, mutually-supporting axes. Why they've waited two years to launch an attack like this is pretty mind-boggling.

If you don't mind rather dry reading, the ISW does some really detailed analysis of the war on a fairly regular basis. See February 22 for the article mentioned above.

https://www.understandingwar.org/

In good news, the Ukrainians are claiming another A-50 Mainstay AWACS. That makes two destroyed, at least one damaged (on the ground, by a small drone).

Slava Ukraini!

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[kcdusk]

Something that surprises me is. With all the economic sanctions in place against Russia, how is it that they are able to continue to fund the war - but the USA looks to be reducing their spend

Its almost as if Russia is winning the economic war as well as the war on the ground, which isn't what i expected.

[Vespers War]

Something that surprises me is. With all the economic sanctions in place against Russia, how is it that they are able to continue to fund the war - but the USA looks to be reducing their spend

Its almost as if Russia is winning the economic war as well as the war on the ground, which isn't what i expected.

Deficit spending. Their federal budget went from a 2022 surplus of 1.4 trillion rubles to a 2023 deficit of 2.9 trillion rubles. The forecast 2024 deficit is 1.6 trillion rubles, but that forecast includes selling oil for ~20% more than the $60/bbl cap that's been placed on Ural crude via sanctions.

[kato13]

Air Force: Ukraine shoots down another Russian A-50 aircraft over Azov Sea

AGAIN!


Incredibly, The Russian Air Force Has Lost Another Rare A-50 Radar Plane

This is reminding me of "Debt of Honor" with the comment about the Japanese AEW-767s. "first about how invincible they were, and more recently about how there were only a few left."


Maybe when the F-16s are finally active (with well trained pilots) they will be able to do better that we all expected.

[Ursus Maior]

Yes, again and it could have been an upgraded A-50U, though that's neither confirmed nor is the exact method of the shoot-down known. What we know is that it happened in the Krasnodar region, which is south of Rostov on the Don and quite far away from the front lines. So we can rule out any of the large premium AA missile systems Ukraine has. Logic follows that infiltrated sabotage/commando type units with drones and or MANPADs are most likely as method for the destruction of this second or third A-50 Russia has now lost. One A-50 was previously shot down and another one earlier possibly sabotaged on ground by an explosive drone attack.

To put it mildly: Russia is losing the war on controlling the skies as it keeps losing data collection, distribution and early-warning methods. Their C3ISTAR capabilites are really thin now, although EW planes with some C2ISTAR capabilites remain. It's unknown how many servicable and especially fly-worthy A-50 remain in Russian service. Before the war nine or twelve A-50 were in service, but their status was unknown in detail.

The successor to the A-50, the A-100, has faced multiple delays in its program and has yet to be introduced into service. This is allegedly planned for this year. However, losing two experienced crews within two months will certainly degrade the Russian AEW&C capabilites in total. This would certainly benefit any military operation against Russia in the foreseeable future.

[Heffe]

Yes, again and it could have been an upgraded A-50U, though that's neither confirmed nor is the exact method of the shoot-down known. What we know is that it happened in the Krasnodar region, which is south of Rostov on the Don and quite far away from the front lines. So we can rule out any of the large premium AA missile systems Ukraine has. Logic follows that infiltrated sabotage/commando type units with drones and or MANPADs are most likely as method for the destruction of this second or third A-50 Russia has now lost. One A-50 was previously shot down and another one earlier possibly sabotaged on ground by an explosive drone attack.

To put it mildly: Russia is losing the war on controlling the skies as it keeps losing data collection, distribution and early-warning methods. Their C3ISTAR capabilites are really thin now, although EW planes with some C2ISTAR capabilites remain. It's unknown how many servicable and especially fly-worthy A-50 remain in Russian service. Before the war nine or twelve A-50 were in service, but their status was unknown in detail.

The successor to the A-50, the A-100, has faced multiple delays in its program and has yet to be introduced into service. This is allegedly planned for this year. However, losing two experienced crews within two months will certainly degrade the Russian AEW&C capabilites in total. This would certainly benefit any military operation against Russia in the foreseeable future.

I suppose it depends on whether or not you want to believe the Ukrainian MOD, but they're apparently claiming it was an S-200 that shot down the most recent A-50.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/24/big-fat-missiles-to-take-down-big-fat-russian-planes-how-ukraine-brought-back-its-massive-s-200s/sh=51f6c0bc4743

This would make sense, at least in my mind, as the S-200 has some missiles with a longer range than the Patriot missiles provided to Ukraine thus far.

[Vespers War]

This may also have been a bit of a trap by the Ukrainian forces. They retired the S-200 in 2013, and brought it back during the current conflict with modifications (probably including an improved seeker) to act as a surface-to-surface missile. The speculation I've seen is that the A-50 called it in as an S-200 fired as an SSM, not realizing they were the target for an S-200 SAM.

The S-200 has to make some sacrifices for that range - it's an 8-tonne missile where PAC-2 is 0.9 tonnes and PAC-3 is around 0.3 tonnes, so an entire Patriot TEL with sixteen PAC-3 is only a little more than half the mass of a single S-200. This leads to a situation where its launchers are portable but not mobile; that is they can be transported by vehicles, but they can't move themselves and the set-up and teardown are long by modern standards. This was a smart use of a system that's not very flexible by (assuming the stories are correct) taking advantage of complacency on the other side, where they saw what they expected to see rather than what was actually happening.