OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Louied]

I was listening to GEN (Ret) Wesley Clark, a former commander of NATO, on CNN the other day. (Yes, I know what some of you think of CNN; let's not go into that right now.) He said that while the troops and equipment are enough to make a wreck of Ukraine right now, to properly subjugate Ukraine, Russia would need on the order of 800,000 troops with attendant armor and vehicle to move the supply chain, and enough aircraft to gain air superiority over Ukraine.

The Russians don't have this right now. Mass conscription would be necessary, and the first task of the new troops would be to get currently POS vehicles running. While training for combat.

However, the invasion of Ukraine is going badly for the Russians. Even Russian commanders (secretly) acknowledge that they are overwhelmed at how badly the campaign is going. The war is also very unpopular in Russia herself, and conscription is going to go over like a lead balloon. You'll need loyal troops to provide armed guards over the conscripts to make sure they don't desert, and in general start a reign of terror over the conscripts.

You're also going to have a situation like in the 1960s-70s in the US, where conscripts "burn their draft cards" and generally don't show up when they are conscripted. They'll join the antiwar effort instead. Where they will be arrested, and then conscripted. There will be press gangs roaming Russia.

It's going to be a mess.

Excellent observations Paul! I guess the question now is does Putin look to save face and take over the two eastern regions and make Ukraine say "uncle" then withdraw and start a huge revamp of its forces Strategy wise I would think (at I could be completely wrong) that was the best option. Then tag team with China as they make a move somewhere. Though I have a feeling China is taking some hard lessons from this themselves.

[Raellus]

How might the war end Five scenarios (from the BBC)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936

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[swaghauler]

Excellent observations Paul! I guess the question now is does Putin look to save face and take over the two eastern regions and make Ukraine say "uncle" then withdraw and start a huge revamp of its forces Strategy wise I would think (at I could be completely wrong) that was the best option. Then tag team with China as they make a move somewhere. Though I have a feeling China is taking some hard lessons from this themselves.

My concern is that Russia will decide that the city of Kyiv is "too tough a nut to crack" with infantry and pull a Grozny in the circa 2000 Second Chechen War. He's already moving in the rockets and tube "grid square removers" (I love that term by the way) and attempting to surround the city and force capitulation. IF he decides to pull a Grozny, then he will move in the thermobaric weapons, and everyone in Kyiv will get a free cremation on Russia. My hope is that his advisors can talk him out of it based on the political and economic repercussions for doing so.

[swaghauler]

I was listening to GEN (Ret) Wesley Clark, a former commander of NATO, on CNN the other day. (Yes, I know what some of you think of CNN; let's not go into that right now.) He said that while the troops and equipment are enough to make a wreck of Ukraine right now, to properly subjugate Ukraine, Russia would need on the order of 800,000 troops with attendant armor and vehicle to move the supply chain, and enough aircraft to gain air superiority over Ukraine.

The Russians don't have this right now. Mass conscription would be necessary, and the first task of the new troops would be to get currently POS vehicles running. While training for combat.

However, the invasion of Ukraine is going badly for the Russians. Even Russian commanders (secretly) acknowledge that they are overwhelmed at how badly the campaign is going. The war is also very unpopular in Russia herself, and conscription is going to go over like a lead balloon. You'll need loyal troops to provide armed guards over the conscripts to make sure they don't desert, and in general start a reign of terror over the conscripts.

You're also going to have a situation like in the 1960s-70s in the US, where conscripts "burn their draft cards" and generally don't show up when they are conscripted. They'll join the antiwar effort instead. Where they will be arrested, and then conscripted. There will be press gangs roaming Russia.

It's going to be a mess.

As far as I know, Russia has universal conscription. Every male serves from 18 to 20 and then goes into the equivalent of America's IRR (inactive ready reserve). That means every Russian male is going to "get a taste of Hell." I just don't know how a sustained occupation would be affordable to Russia's military. I'm not even sure the US could do it now with our debt load.

[unipus]

As I've stated in other threads, your information on this is out of date.

There is still conscription, but it is now on a one year term (although many conscripts enter with at least some training in militarily useful experience already, due to "patriotic training" that has no real Western equivalent). Since 2016, conscripts have the option to instead sign on immediately to a two (maybe three) year volunteer contract, which offers better pay and preferential treatment.

At least on paper, most of these conscripts serve in support roles, while combat roles are comprised primarily of voluntary contract soldiers.

In any case, conscripts make up only about a third of manpower. However, the inequalities in pay, status, and authority between contract and conscript soldiers has been a noted point of friction and low morale even within any given unit, and it's likely we're seeing that here.

(A specific case: Conscripts are not legally allowed to serve outside of Russia. In this particular case, many conscripts had their status nonvoluntarily changed to contract prior to the invasion in order to get around this law -- certainly this is probably another sore point for morale.)

[Jason]

Blinken has green-lit the transfer of Polish fighters to Ukraine, which suggests we have reassured them of back-stopping thier loss. This does not mean any such transfer is iminent, but surely closer than it was a week ago on initial reports.

An unknown number of foriegn volunteers have entered Ukraine, which has lifted visa requirements. Ukraine suggests volunteers have fatigues and cold-weather gear.

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine

Both scenarios seem unlikely right now, but things may be much more desperate by next week.

[Bestbrian]

Blinken has green-lit the transfer of Polish fighters to Ukraine, which suggests we have reassured them of back-stopping thier loss. This does not mean any such transfer is iminent, but surely closer than it was a week ago on initial reports.

An unknown number of foriegn volunteers have entered Ukraine, which has lifted visa requirements. Ukraine suggests volunteers have fatigues and cold-weather gear.

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine

Both scenarios seem unlikely right now, but things may be much more desperate by next week.

No to both. Putin isn't going to be looking to expand the war anywhere, since he can barely handle the one he has. What he most definitely will do is utilize captured foreign fighters for propaganda purposes as proof of the western conspiracy against Russia that was the supposed pretext for the Ukrainian invasion in the first place. Allowing Ukrainian aircraft to arm/refuel at NATO airbases and then return is effectively allowing them to fly sorties which is an overt act of aggression and would certainly be construed as a NATO attack upon Russia.

As an aside, Russia has already stated that foreign fighters in Ukraine would be treated as criminals and not afforded protections due to combatants, so these folks better plan on taking that into account.

[Raellus]

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Is that Wagner Group If so, that "company" is essentially just a front for Spetsnaz (the name and PMC designation is a weak attempt at plausible deniability).

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war

He could, but it would be a fairly weak pretext. I agree with BestBrian's assessment.

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine

Not anytime soon, if ever. Doing so would give Russia a much stronger pretext for expanding the war.

What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.

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[Bestbrian]

What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.

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This is going to turn into a very active and very large insurgency actively supported by the world community and led by an extremely ticked off diaspora. I'm curious to see to what extent this spreads to Belarus. The ruling party there is only in power at the point of Russian bayonets. I could very well see a Belarus insurgency springing up (actively armed and supported by the one in Ukraine).

[Raellus]

Desperate Times...

Video circulating online today shows civilian vehicles- buses, cargo and tanker trucks, even sedans- spray-painted with Z recognition markings on Russian flatbed train cars in transit to Ukraine.

Several years ago, in the In Defense of the Red Army thread, someone pointed out that one of the Cold War Soviet army's most significant but little publicized weaknesses was its relative paucity of transport vehicles. Apparently, the post-1945 Soviet military-industrial complex learned nothing from the important role that Lend-Lease materiel played in defeating the German ground forces during WW2, and the Russian military has since inherited that gap in logistical thinking.

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[swaghauler]

Using the typical off-the-shelf Quadcopter as an armed drone. One has to wonder how many of these the Ukrainians have now

https://youtu.be/Q3KkEMxA4EQ

By the way, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND Funker Tactical 530.

Swag

[swaghauler]

An Objective Evaluation Of Russian Logistics

Here is a good analysis of Russia's logistical issues.

https://youtu.be/b4wRdoWpw0w

[Raellus]

So Nice, I Had to Post it Twice

The Russians are bringing back the armored train.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44620/a-russian-armored-train-has-joined-the-invasion-of-ukraine

Speaking of recommendations, you may have noticed that I post a lot of articles from Warzone on The Drive. It's pretty much my go-to for contemporary military-related news. If you haven't already, check it out.

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[Stackmouse]

Russian strategic culture - Why Russia does things the way it does


Presentation by Martti J. Kari, a retired intelligence colonel of the Finnish Defense Forces (03DEC18). The presentation is in Finnish, but there is English caption in the video. I recommend this to everyone who wants to see the broader cultural background of the Russian way of doing things. Col (ret) Kari has a deep understanding of the Russian way.

[Ursus Maior]

Is there a GoFundMe or something like that for the troops in the Ukraine

I don't know of crowd funding, but a couple of ammo companies have been donating a couple of million rounds, this article made news: https://www.businessinsider.com/ariz...ne-army-2022-3

Maybe such a thing could be organized the easiest way by contacting such a firm and asking them about "care packages" I don't know, never thought about this kind of stuff.