OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Ursus Maior]

As far as I know, Russia has universal conscription. Every male serves from 18 to 20 and then goes into the equivalent of America's IRR (inactive ready reserve). That means every Russian male is going to "get a taste of Hell." I just don't know how a sustained occupation would be affordable to Russia's military. I'm not even sure the US could do it now with our debt load.

That's not how it works in Russian real life. Only about half of the men available serve each year, often voluntarily, since serving as a conscript seems to enhance the chances to get an apartment funded by social welfare. Also, while the US has individual ready reserve and the Russians have something similar, they encounter problems known to me as a German from 1990s and 2000s Bundeswehr: activating reservists is expansive and thus avoided in huge numbers. It also disrupts the economy, though that might be less of an issue, once sanctions kick in and do their from work.

I absolutely agree on the idea of the Russian army - today and historically - sucking as an army of occupation. It's a vastly different job and Ukraine is a country of over 40 million people, nearly all of them, as of now, hostile to Russia.

However, comparing Russia's expenditures on the armed forces with that of Western nations is a folly. Yes, their spending was only USD 43.2 billion in 2020, down from USD 46.4 billion in 2019. However, Russia buys most of it's equipment internally and has comparatively very low costs for personnel. Also, in Ruble, the spending actually rose from 3 trillion to 3.09 trillion between 2019 and 2020, and then to 3.2 trillion in 2021.

This means, Russia can do much more with its funds than e. g. Germany, which spent the comparable sum of 46.93 billion in 2021. All in all, however, the allies of NATO outspend Russia by far, of course. This doesn't mean, though, Russia cannot create a bit of a mixed pickle on NATO's Eastern flank for some time.

[Raellus]

Plot Twist!

Poland looks to be exchanging its MiG-29s with the US, for American-built replacement fighters. This opens the door for the US to transfer said ex-Polish MiGs to Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44644/poland-agrees-to-turn-over-its-mig-29s-to-the-u-s-after-which-they-could-head-to-ukraine

It's a bit of a pass-the-buck move by Poland, but given their geo-political and military position in Europe, I can respect it.

Is this a red line for Putin We shall see.

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[swaghauler]

Farmers Having a "Field [Artillery] Day"

This is just so Twilight2000 I just had to show it. When the conscript Russians run out of fuel, they simply abandon their AFVs and just run off. Only in Twilight2000 would I have imagined seeing things like this...

https://youtu.be/KOo3U32-J_g

Swag.

[swaghauler]

Cappy is still evaluating the Russian's performance here.

https://youtu.be/FDKH_FxFdrw

[swaghauler]

The Russians are bringing back the armored train.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44620/a-russian-armored-train-has-joined-the-invasion-of-ukraine

Speaking of recommendations, you may have noticed that I post a lot of articles from Warzone on The Drive. It's pretty much my go-to for contemporary military-related news. If you haven't already, check it out.

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Actually, according to people in open source info forums, they apparently used one or both of the armored trains in Grozny too. I heard they are often used to haul Thermobaric missiles as well as larger artillery "stores" like 140mm rocket reloads. I guess they were a much-needed resource there during the siege of Grozny. Of course, Chechnya has rail lines to Russia so they were able to move in by rail. Ukraine severed her rail lines before the invasion started. That might have thrown the Russians off their game a bit too.

[swaghauler]

That's not how it works in Russian real life. Only about half of the men available serve each year, often voluntarily, since serving as a conscript seems to enhance the chances to get an apartment funded by social welfare. Also, while the US has individual ready reserve and the Russians have something similar, they encounter problems known to me as a German from 1990s and 2000s Bundeswehr: activating reservists is expansive and thus avoided in huge numbers. It also disrupts the economy, though that might be less of an issue, once sanctions kick in and do their from work.

I absolutely agree on the idea of the Russian army - today and historically - sucking as an army of occupation. It's a vastly different job and Ukraine is a country of over 40 million people, nearly all of them, as of now, hostile to Russia.

However, comparing Russia's expenditures on the armed forces with that of Western nations is a folly. Yes, their spending was only USD 43.2 billion in 2020, down from USD 46.4 billion in 2019. However, Russia buys most of it's equipment internally and has comparatively very low costs for personnel. Also, in Ruble, the spending actually rose from 3 trillion to 3.09 trillion between 2019 and 2020, and then to 3.2 trillion in 2021.

This means, Russia can do much more with its funds than e. g. Germany, which spent the comparable sum of 46.93 billion in 2021. All in all, however, the allies of NATO outspend Russia by far, of course. This doesn't mean, though, Russia cannot create a bit of a mixed pickle on NATO's Eastern flank for some time.

You still have to feed and cloth those conscripts and that costs money. According to Sub Brief, Cappy, and a few other YouTubers known for detailed open-source intel, Putin did do a "clemency recruitment drive" just prior to Ukraine, taking prisoners into the army in exchange for clemency. I'm guessing that these would be the majority of deserters and we know they are there because they were being interviewed after being captured by Ukraine. In some cases, they had only about a week of training before deploying.

IF all of that is true, it gives a whole new meaning to the term "canon fodder."

[kato13]

Poland looks to be exchanging its MiG-29s with the US, for American-built replacement fighters. This opens the door for the US to transfer said ex-Polish MiGs to Ukraine.
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Probably not going to happen

Pentagon response to Poland's proposal on jets: "We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Polands proposal is a tenable one.

-Pentagon spokesman John Kirby

[Jason]

Poland says they are ready to send the 28, Mig-29's to a U.S. base in Germany.

There are reports that Russian has lost a ship.

There are reports that a second Russian General has been KIA.

[swaghauler]

Probably not going to happen

Pentagon response to Poland's proposal on jets: "We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Polands proposal is a tenable one.

-Pentagon spokesman John Kirby

https://youtu.be/K6uA6a9jgjs

Biden is simply dragging his feet. We have 600+ F16s in inventory. We can give Poland 28 of them.

Biden did finally ban imports of Russian oil today. We are supposedly being told to expect $7 per gallon by next month since the current administration won't lift their ban on drilling in the national forests.

[swaghauler]

Poland says they are ready to send the 28, Mig-29's to a U.S. base in Germany.

There are reports that Russian has lost a ship.

There are reports that a second Russian General has been KIA.

That Russian ship was sunk off of Crimea. Open Source Intelligence posted a Google satellite photo of it.

[Jason]

https://youtu.be/K6uA6a9jgjs

Biden is simply dragging his feet. We have 600+ F16s in inventory. We can give Poland 28 of them.

Biden did finally ban imports of Russian oil today. We are supposedly being told to expect $7 per gallon by next month since the current administration won't lift their ban on drilling in the national forests.

The oil companies are banking record profits while gouging consumers. This is about greed.

[bash]

https://youtu.be/K6uA6a9jgjs

Biden is simply dragging his feet. We have 600+ F16s in inventory. We can give Poland 28 of them.

Biden did finally ban imports of Russian oil today. We are supposedly being told to expect $7 per gallon by next month since the current administration won't lift their ban on drilling in the national forests.

Having vehicles in inventory and having effective vehicles are not the same thing. Russia is giving the world an object lesson in this concept. If Poland gives Ukraine two dozen Migs and associated spares, compatible weapon systems, and the rest of those planes' support they need the same number of F-16s. They'd also need training for pilots and ground crews for the entirely new planes and weapon systems. Poland giving up planes is basically them taking a combat-ready squadron offline for months if not years. These aren't Hummers.

Oil companies in the US already under utilize their existing leases for drilling on federal land. More leases aren't going to reduce the price at the pump for gasoline. Opening federal land to drilling (or any land) requires the attendant infrastructure to store and move that oil. So even if oil companies got a bunch of new federal drilling leases tomorrow they wouldn't get significant amounts of oil into the market for years.

[swaghauler]

Having vehicles in inventory and having effective vehicles are not the same thing. Russia is giving the world an object lesson in this concept. If Poland gives Ukraine two dozen Migs and associated spares, compatible weapon systems, and the rest of those planes' support they need the same number of F-16s. They'd also need training for pilots and ground crews for the entirely new planes and weapon systems. Poland giving up planes is basically them taking a combat-ready squadron offline for months if not years. These aren't Hummers.

Except that Poland has already TRAINED on F16s and F35s and would need to upgrade her fleet anyway because the MIG 29s all exceed half their airframes' service lives. Why not do it now while the doing is good

[swaghauler]

Oil companies in the US already under utilize their existing leases for drilling on federal land. More leases aren't going to reduce the price at the pump for gasoline. Opening federal land to drilling (or any land) requires the attendant infrastructure to store and move that oil. So even if oil companies got a bunch of new federal drilling leases tomorrow they wouldn't get significant amounts of oil into the market for years.

Except that Biden did ban drilling in the Allegheny National Forest by banning Fracking and doubling lease fees after he promised the unions he wouldn't. Without Fracking, shale oils cannot be exploited. This cut production in the Forest down to 10k barrels a day from 30K + and idled 1200 wells overnight. As a result, 58K PA workers lost their good-paying jobs when this happened and DON'T TELL ME I DON'T KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT because yours truly was one of them. I used to haul well casings to the rigs in the Forest and now get to haul steel for peanuts compared to oilfield pay. Now, PA power companies are forced to IMPORT natural gas to make electricity because the Forest is no longer supplying it.

[Raellus]

Mod Warning

Guys, I really don't want to lock this thread. Please keep it apolitical and on-topic. The thread OP is about the war in Ukraine.

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.phpt=2961

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