OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Back on Topic

This story's been a rollercoaster from the start. The Pentagon has apparently shot down Poland's plan for a third-party transfer of its MiG-29s to Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44675/u-s-says-it-will-not-support-high-risk-transfer-of-polish-mig-29s-to-ukraine

I'm not sure how much good two dozen MiGs would have done the UAF, militarily speaking, but it would have signaled the strength of NATO's support for Ukraine, and likely boosted morale there.

CNN reports that the White House has suggested that Putin might be prepared to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine. It's not clear what evidence this warning is based on, other than some unsupported allegations Putin supposedly made that the US was developing bio-weapons in Ukraine. To be fair, he has a well-established pattern of accusing his opponents, falsely, of things that he's about to do himself. Frankly, I don't see Russian use of chemical or biological weapons at this point in the war as likely, but I certainly wouldn't put it past Putin. He's seen Assad get away with it in Syria, and remain in power, so perhaps he's calculated that he can get away with it too. Considering the intensifying economic sanctions against Russia, he might believe he has nothing more to lose.

Finally, I've been a Sebastian Junger fan since A Perfect Storm. His book, War, which follows a platoon of the 173rd ABCT during its deployment in the Korengal Valley is a powerful portrait of men at war (the companion documentary film, Restrepo, is very good too). He recently penned a brief essay for Vanity Fair in which he asserts that Ukraine can win this war because has the three things that an underdog needs in order to defeat a more powerful foreign aggressor.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/can-ukrainian-freedom-fighters-stand-up-to-the-russian-military

Slava Ukraini!

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[Bestbrian]

Putin directed the Russian military to employ 16000 "volunteers" from the Middle East (Syria). This underscores that the Russian army has poor training/morale/leadership and is unprepared for urban combat operations, not to mention that the national leadership is casualty adverse. Vlad: Go Home.

[swaghauler]

Reviewing Russias Airwar Failure

Here is a pretty good review by Sandboxx on the Russian Air war...

https://youtu.be/eXFDc-44YeE

[chico20854]

Here is a pretty good review by Sandboxx on the Russian Air war...

https://youtu.be/eXFDc-44YeE

And there's this piece from last week on the capabilities (or lack thereof) displayed by the Russian Air Force.

[Matt W]

Putin claims that Ukraine gave Russia no choice. Invasion had to happen in order to protect the Russian state and citizens.

AFAIK, this is almost true. At least in a very cynical way.

Let me explain.

1. Russia is a petro-state. Its only real money-maker is pulling hydrocarbons out of the ground and selling the stuff to Europe.

2. A major Russian pipeline to Europe goes through Ukraine and the Ukrainians used to charge a large fee to allow this transit. So, the Russians stopped using it and have built new pipelines (and are trying to build even more). However, if Russian troops take control of this pipeline, Putin gets a much simpler/cheaper solution than building a NEW pipeline (Nordstream 2 will be eye-wateringly expensive)

3. MASSIVE oil and gas deposits have recently been discovered off the coast of Ukraine. If these were to be exploited... there would be no need for Europe to buy Russian oil. Russia would soon be bankrupt. However, Russia now has troops on most of the relevant shorelines...

4. Crimea gets 85% of its fresh water from one specific Ukrainian river. Or rather... it used to. Ukraine built a dam in revenge for the Russian takeover of Crimea. Crimea has water rationing - but its economy is being destroyed. However, Russian troops have now reached that dam...

5. Before the invasion, there was only one land-based link between Russia and Crimea. And that's a single bridge that could be easily destroyed. Of course, this is assuming that it doesn't fall down without anyone's help. (seismic activity and shoddy Russian construction are not a good combination). Russian troops have now linked Crimea with Mother Russia.

6. Putin is greedy but he's not stupid. It is quite possible that the Invasion was intended to protect the Russian hydrocarbon industry. So, if we're optimistic, it may be that Putin could be content with:
a) keeping Ukraine out of the oil and gas business,
b) seizing road and rail links to Crimea,
c) re-opening the old pipelines.

Anything else would be "nice to have" but those 3 things would protect the Russian economy and safeguard the vast wealth of Putin and the other kleptocratic Oligarchs. Oh, and the Russian citizens in Crimea (including sailors in one of the Russian Navy's two warmwater ports) wouldn't inconveniently die of thirst.

[Vespers War]

I'd missed seeing this thread until today, so I'm catching up a bit and commenting on things that I think aren't duplicating anyone else's comments.

Actually, according to people in open source info forums, they apparently used one or both of the armored trains in Grozny too. I heard they are often used to haul Thermobaric missiles as well as larger artillery "stores" like 140mm rocket reloads. I guess they were a much-needed resource there during the siege of Grozny. Of course, Chechnya has rail lines to Russia so they were able to move in by rail. Ukraine severed her rail lines before the invasion started. That might have thrown the Russians off their game a bit too.

The two armored trains were both used in Grozny, and at least one was used in Georgia as well. Amur and Baikal may have been activated because of drone strikes on conventional rail transport; since Russian logistics are more rail-dependent than many other countries, the armored trains might have been called up because of their anti-air artillery and protection against light weaponry. The imagery I've seen is pretty grainy, but it looks like the electronic warfare cars have been removed from the trains, and they have just the locomotives, anti-air cars, and flatbeds for transport. That's a lot simpler and more cargo-oriented than the earlier configurations that included jammer cars and passenger cars for desantniki.

That Russian ship was sunk off of Crimea. Open Source Intelligence posted a Google satellite photo of it.

And apparently it was sunk by a truck. A BM-21 Grad was pre-ranged on a set of coordinates and a pair of speedboats lured the Vasily Bykov onto those coordinates.


One thing I've noticed with the armor in particular is that Russia's including some seriously old equipment in the invasion. There have been some T-90A, but also T-72A and T-72B, and no signs that I've seen of T-72B3M or T-90M - they're sending tanks with no ERA or with Kontakt-1 or Kontakt-5, but nothing that would be equipped with Relikt. I'm not sure what that means (if anything), but it struck me as odd.

[CraigD6er]

Whilst I like armoured trains, I wonder if these may prove vulnerable in a country that has by no means been pacified

I too wondered at the lack of much modern kit in the Russian front line. We see a lot of light vehicles, Tigr's etc, and slightly older MBT's. I wonder if the better kit is being held back. Let the Ukrainians use up their stocks of ATGW's on the older kit and even on some conscripts 'accidentally' deployed forward, then roll in with the better units once the defenders are worn down. Of course that falls apart when the west, and even neutral nations, keep topping up the defenders stocks with modern and it appears very effective weapons.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Putin directed the Russian military to employ 16000 "volunteers" from the Middle East (Syria). This underscores that the Russian army has poor training/morale/leadership and is unprepared for urban combat operations, not to mention that the national leadership is casualty adverse. Vlad: Go Home.

I'm beginning to think that Russia would lose a war against the PA, OH and/or WV National Guard(s)

[swaghauler]

Whilst I like armoured trains, I wonder if these may prove vulnerable in a country that has by no means been pacified

I too wondered at the lack of much modern kit in the Russian front line. We see a lot of light vehicles, Tigr's etc, and slightly older MBT's. I wonder if the better kit is being held back. Let the Ukrainians use up their stocks of ATGW's on the older kit and even on some conscripts 'accidentally' deployed forward, then roll in with the better units once the defenders are worn down. Of course that falls apart when the west, and even neutral nations, keep topping up the defenders stocks with modern and it appears very effective weapons.

They ARE using the modern stuff with veteran troops in the South and West and those guys are doing moderately well. The issue is that even the newest Russian equipment is underperforming. Combine that with Russia's apparent lack of C3, and you have a recipe for disaster. Modern SU fighters are being shot down because Russia appears to be afraid to put their AWACS in the air (they are sitting in Belarus right now) forcing those fighters to fly low in order to acquire targets. Putin may also be holding back his best equipment in case of a NATO intervention but I think what we are seeing is the ACTUAL PERFORMANCE of the Russian army on whole.

In the 80s and 90s, we (the US Army) were tasked with being able to "Shoot, Move, & Communicate simultaneously" on demand. It took us MANY years of training to figure that third ability out. Russia seems to be still operating on a Cold War standard. I guess something had to give in the budget and new tanks and jets can be sold abroad. We now know that Kontakt and Relikt and SHORTA systems are completely WORTHLESS against NATO missiles and that many units are equipped with reactive armor "bags" or panels stuffed with egg crates or foam (indicating a budgetary issue). The cage armor (developed in the 2nd Chechen War) is useless against JAVELIN and Ukrainian fighters have flown explosive-laden drones right under the cage into the commander's hatch cover (which causes the tank to "pop its top").

In addition, Ukraine has not only utilized the intelligence they are getting from open Russian comms, but they are also concentrating their attacks on the Russian convoys, destroying Russian resupply. A Russian tank without fuel is just a target. We may also be seeing a STRATEGIC LOGISTICS issue. Airliners landing at Moscow airport are being denied jet fuel. Cars, trucks, and buses are being requisitioned. This speaks to Russia not having enough logistics left to keep a fully functioning army on the move. BUT... this is just "phase I" of the operation. The coming "counter-insurgency operation" in Ukraine will have to be massive. I wonder what Putin is thinking now Will we see his "shirt allergy" reemerge as he tries to play tough

Anyways LASER PIG the YouTuber has a funny video on Ukraine right now. Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/ZPBU_MX1fYE

Swag

[swaghauler]

I'm beginning to think that Russia would lose a war against the PA, OH and/or WV National Guard(s)

I think so too. I ran training ranges with the 99th ARCOM and those boys can shoot. Hell, in PA, the first day of buck season is a school holiday. It is said that there are 2 MILLION hunters in the woods on the opening day of deer season. In addition, most of those Reserve and NG units have worked together for YEARS! They are NOT a bunch of conscripts with a year's experience or training.

Also, many Reserve units have members that do the same jobs in the civilian world (ie Transport units with CDL truckers in them, Medical units populated by nurses and X-ray techs, Construction units with welders, ironworkers, etc... in them). This gives US reserve units a knowledge base that they would never receive from straight military service.

[Vespers War]

They ARE using the modern stuff with veteran troops in the South and West and those guys are doing moderately well. The issue is that even the newest Russian equipment is underperforming. Combine that with Russia's apparent lack of C3, and you have a recipe for disaster. Modern SU fighters are being shot down because Russia appears to be afraid to put their AWACS in the air (they are sitting in Belarus right now) forcing those fighters to fly low in order to acquire targets. Putin may also be holding back his best equipment in case of a NATO intervention but I think what we are seeing is the ACTUAL PERFORMANCE of the Russian army on whole.

Playing devil's advocate, Russia only has something like 6 AWACS-equivalents, so they're far more valuable than the Sukhoi aircraft; on the other hand, if this isn't when you're going to risk them to make your air forces more effective, then when

In the 80s and 90s, we (the US Army) were tasked with being able to "Shoot, Move, & Communicate simultaneously" on demand. It took us MANY years of training to figure that third ability out. Russia seems to be still operating on a Cold War standard. I guess something had to give in the budget and new tanks and jets can be sold abroad. We now know that Kontakt and Relikt and SHORTA systems are completely WORTHLESS against NATO missiles and that many units are equipped with reactive armor "bags" or panels stuffed with egg crates or foam (indicating a budgetary issue). The cage armor (developed in the 2nd Chechen War) is useless against JAVELIN and Ukrainian fighters have flown explosive-laden drones right under the cage into the commander's hatch cover (which causes the tank to "pop its top").

It looks like Kontakt might still be useful against older/lighter stuff - Kontakt-5 was surviving TOW hits in previous wars, and RPGs and (older) LAWs are probably still mostly ineffective. It's almost useless against top-attack missiles, though, and those are becoming more and more common.

I haven't seen any examples of Relikt in the conflict, but it's probably going to have similar issues with top-attack. Maybe they're being used in the south and I just haven't seen pictures of them, but so far the armor I've seen has either had Kontakt or no ERA.

I also haven't seen Arena (probably because it's incompatible with ERA), but Arena can't engage Javelin anyway because of its maximum elevation angle.

Shtora has been mostly useless for a while, and the cage armor does very little against tandem-charge warheads.

The bags and foam were explained to me as the holding system for an ERA application, which seems like an odd system to me, but I don't have direct experience with them. The number that are empty makes me agree that it looks like a budgetary issue (which really shouldn't be surprising - Russia's GDP is often somewhat less than that of the State of New York).

In addition, Ukraine has not only utilized the intelligence they are getting from open Russian comms, but they are also concentrating their attacks on the Russian convoys, destroying Russian resupply. A Russian tank without fuel is just a target. We may also be seeing a STRATEGIC LOGISTICS issue. Airliners landing at Moscow airport are being denied jet fuel. Cars, trucks, and buses are being requisitioned. This speaks to Russia not having enough logistics left to keep a fully functioning army on the move. BUT... this is just "phase I" of the operation. The coming "counter-insurgency operation" in Ukraine will have to be massive. I wonder what Putin is thinking now Will we see his "shirt allergy" reemerge as he tries to play tough

Anyways LASER PIG the YouTuber has a funny video on Ukraine right now. Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/ZPBU_MX1fYE

Swag

Road logistics has always been a shortcoming of the Russian system. One estimate I saw was that their road resupply range was only around 90 miles from their supply depot, and they were heavily reliant on rail.

As far as COIN goes, Russia just flat doesn't have the number of soldiers needed. To hold all of Ukraine, following the rule of thumb that you need approximately 1 counter-insurgent per 20 inhabitants, they'd need over 2.2 million soldiers to occupy Ukraine. Their entire active army is just over 1 million on paper, and only around 3 million including all their reserve forces. Even if they got assistance from secessionist forces in Donbas and whatever Syrian troops Assad wants somewhere far away from him, I don't think they can get anywhere near the needed numbers. They might be able to split the country and hold part of it, but even that would be difficult.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

I think so too. I ran training ranges with the 99th ARCOM and those boys can shoot. Hell, in PA, the first day of buck season is a school holiday. It is said that there are 2 MILLION hunters in the woods on the opening day of deer season. In addition, most of those Reserve and NG units have worked together for YEARS! They are NOT a bunch of conscripts with a year's experience or training.

Also, many Reserve units have members that do the same jobs in the civilian world (ie Transport units with CDL truckers in them, Medical units populated by nurses and X-ray techs, Construction units with welders, ironworkers, etc... in them). This gives US reserve units a knowledge base that they would never receive from straight military service.

99th ARCOM, you must be near Pittsburgh. I'm from there and still live somewhat close, 50 miles WSW of Pittsburgh in Ohio on the river in between Steubenville and Wheeling, WV. I remember one time I was behind a Deuce and a Half where a couple of folding tables fell out. I went on the street, picked them up and Mom and I drove to the command center. I went to the front door and got a Colonial, Captain and Sergeant help me take them into the building. They thanked me for returning the tables.

[bash]

It looks like Kontakt might still be useful against older/lighter stuff - Kontakt-5 was surviving TOW hits in previous wars, and RPGs and (older) LAWs are probably still mostly ineffective. It's almost useless against top-attack missiles, though, and those are becoming more and more common.

Even if NATO is just dumping old LAWs on Ukraine, their tactics of going after relatively soft trucks and APCs seem to be having great effect. Save the Javelins for tanks but target everything else with LAWs and guns. The front lines are burning supplies every minute so even just slowing resupply convoys is helpful for Ukraine.

For their firepower Russian forces seem to have a very steep loss of strength gradient. Their lack of air superiority means their power looks like it drops off pretty significantly from behind their front lines and well traveled corridors. They do not have a secure rear area inside Ukraine anywhere but the south.

So long as the Ukrainians can keep resupplied around and behind the Russian lines, Russian advances will be very expensive. Full occupation will be even more expensive.

[swaghauler]

Economic Warefare: The Oligarchs Begin To Turn On Putin

It seems that the Russian Oligarchs are beginning to target Putin

https://youtu.be/QTQ4O4_a_Mo

Swag

[swaghauler]

99th ARCOM, you must be near Pittsburgh. I'm from there and still live somewhat close, 50 miles WSW of Pittsburgh in Ohio on the river in between Steubenville and Wheeling, WV. I remember one time I was behind a Deuce and a Half where a couple of folding tables fell out. I went on the street, picked them up and Mom and I drove to the command center. I went to the front door and got a Colonial, Captain and Sergeant help me take them into the building. They thanked me for returning the tables.

I live 100 miles north of Pittsburgh and 40 miles south of the North Shore (Lake Erie). The 99th ARCOM stretches from southern New York down to northern West Virginia and was attached to the First Army.