OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Vespers War]

Regarding the Switchblade, I saw 100 were included in the most recent assistance package, but I haven't seen whether they're the 300 or 600 (the latter is quite a bit larger). Other items include 8,000 Stingers; 6,000 AT-4; 2,000 Javelin; 1,000 LAW; 25,000 each of body armor and helmets; and miscellaneous small arms plus more than 20 million rounds of ammunition.

[Tegyrius]

I don't know how many Javelins are in current NATO inventory, but when I see thousands being shipped out, that feels not-insignificant. Has anyone seen any info on Raytheon (or other defense manufacturers) scoring any contracts to replenish depleted stocks

- C.

[Jason]

I don't know how many Javelins are in current NATO inventory, but when I see thousands being shipped out, that feels not-insignificant. Has anyone seen any info on Raytheon (or other defense manufacturers) scoring any contracts to replenish depleted stocks

- C.

IDK NATO inventory levels, but about 45,000 Javelin missles (of all types) have been produced.

Javelin missle use by Ukraine is outstripping production, but that is not a huge suprise as it looks like Ukrainian soldiers are scoring kills on MBT's.

I don't think we will see any immediate need to ramp up Javelin production, unless the war expands.

[bash]

Something I've been surprised about is it doesn't look like Russia has much in the way of MALE UCAVs. They've got recon UAVs but all the information on Russian UCAVs I can find is is they're in prototype or testing phases with nothing really deployed. I may have missed something, I'd never looked into their UCAVs before so I may have definitely missed something.

Ukraine seems to have been making great use of the Turkish TB2 even in an environment without air superiority.

[bash]

Regarding the Switchblade, I saw 100 were included in the most recent assistance package, but I haven't seen whether they're the 300 or 600 (the latter is quite a bit larger). Other items include 8,000 Stingers; 6,000 AT-4; 2,000 Javelin; 1,000 LAW; 25,000 each of body armor and helmets; and miscellaneous small arms plus more than 20 million rounds of ammunition.

I thought I had seen a thing claiming the Switchblades were 300 models but I can't find where I read it. If I understand right the 300 is about equivalent to a 40mm grenade while the 600 is closer to a Javelin in damage output.

[Raellus]

Ukraine seems to have been making great use of the Turkish TB2 even in an environment without air superiority.

This article from yesterday sheds light on the surprising success of the the TB2 and how tactics for its use have evolved since the early days of the invasion.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-africa-libya-europe-ecb9e820ea4bddb4464d7e8cb40e82fc

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[Vespers War]

I don't know how many Javelins are in current NATO inventory, but when I see thousands being shipped out, that feels not-insignificant. Has anyone seen any info on Raytheon (or other defense manufacturers) scoring any contracts to replenish depleted stocks

- C.

The last domestic production contract I'm aware of was issued in 2019 for 2,100 Javelin-F to be produced over 4 years. There have been a handful of international orders as well. The last capacity estimate I saw from the Army was that with current tooling and an increase in staffing, up to 6500 missiles could be produced in a year. As mentioned, tens of thousands of Javelins have been produced, and I'd expect to see more contracts to upgrade older missiles to the newer standards first, over increased production of entirely new missiles.

[Vespers War]

I thought I had seen a thing claiming the Switchblades were 300 models but I can't find where I read it. If I understand right the 300 is about equivalent to a 40mm grenade while the 600 is closer to a Javelin in damage output.

Yeah, Switchblade 300 is a 6 pound drone with 10 minutes of endurance and a 10 kilometer control range, with a blast roughly equal to a 40mm grenade. Switchblade 600 is 50 pounds with up to 80 kilometer range (if all its loiter time is used on linear flight), and the warhead might actually be from a Javelin missile based on one of AeroVironment's PR bits.

[kato13]

AeroVironment_Switchblade

Figured I would save a few google searches.

[Raellus]

Girls & Guns

Ukrainian women are badass.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/19/1087712539/ukrainian-women-are-volunteering-to-fight-and-history-shows-they-always-haveutm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR12yM3bS2kCAIJ_SQeILp_kRLenFo6wUm67ghIExitZLUuC7urBdc63qG4

And I'm not sure how much 9mm semi-automatic "folding carbines" are going to help the Ukrainians, but I suppose every little bit counts.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-03-18/american-gunmakers-help-ukrainians-fight-back-against-putin-5392390.html

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[bash]

Ukrainian women are badass.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/19/1087712539/ukrainian-women-are-volunteering-to-fight-and-history-shows-they-always-haveutm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR12yM3bS2kCAIJ_SQeILp_kRLenFo6wUm67ghIExitZLUuC7urBdc63qG4

And I'm not sure how much 9mm semi-automatic "folding carbines" are going to help the Ukrainians, but I suppose every little bit counts.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-03-18/american-gunmakers-help-ukrainians-fight-back-against-putin-5392390.html

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With the longer barrel on those carbines the effective range likely approaches a hundred yards. Not the worst for insurgent attacks on rear forces. Being foldable they can be hidden more easily in closets and attics than an AK pattern rifle. Definitely a "every little bit helps" weapon rather than something you're going to arm front line or even militia forces with.

[Bestbrian]

Lt. Chornoval is badass. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/w...ussia-war.html

[Raellus]

Russia Has Already Lost

I think a couple of the points made in this article might have been overstated*, but, overall, I agree with the author's assessment.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44592/russia-has-already-lost

I'm interested in your thoughts.

*For example, I still think that Putin could stop the offensive now, negotiate to keep a few key territorial gains (Donbass and a land corridor to Crimea), and then convincingly make the argument to the Russian people that the war was a success (controlling the media will help with that).

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[Vespers War]

Not thoughts about the linked article, but one thing that's come up in discussions I've been having elsewhere is that Russia's active protection systems are turning out to be largely ineffective against modern anti-tank missiles because their maximum elevation means they can't engage a pop-up top-attack missile like Javelin or Spike. None of them - not Drozd, Drozd-2, Arena, Arena-M, or Afghanit - can elevate much beyond 20 degrees. Afghanit can only engage with smoke dischargers, and none of the others can do anything. This is where Trophy ends up having an advantage because it can elevate almost to vertical.

The Russian APS systems would still be useful against the older systems being sent like LAW or AT-4, but their ERA packages can also defeat those lighter warheads, even one as light as Kontakt-1. Since Russian defensive systems generally don't work well together (I think Afghanit/Malachit are the only APS and ERA that can be on the same vehicle at the same time), the older APS may be virtually worthless on heavy armored vehicles (e.g. tanks) these days. Anything they can protect against, ERA can also protect against for similar weight, less power draw, and generally better odds against the first strike (possibly worse against follow-up attacks depending on the attacker's accuracy).

IFVs with APS systems would be useful because IFV-mounted ERA tends to be very unfriendly to dismounted troops, and soldiers are trying to use the lighter rockets against them when possible, but other than the BMP-3M and Kurganets (neither of which are in serial production AFAIK), I don't think Russia has IFVs with APS.

[swaghauler]

Our Canadian Sniper is NOT DEAD!

They just did an interview with the Canadian Sniper whom the Russians claimed to have killed in Kyiv.