OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[pmulcahy11b]

The Ukrainians have integrated HARMs onto their MiGs, with mixed success:

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=SqY9CDsOpvk

[bash]

The Ukrainians have integrated HARMs onto their MiGs, with mixed success:

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=SqY9CDsOpvk

I have been really amused by coverage about adapting US/NATO systems to Ukraine's equipment. Commentators act as if adapting NATO weapons to WP equipment is some brand new concept no one has ever tried before. Former Soviet satellites have been working to integrate old WP tech and NATO tech for thirty years.

I don't say that to disparage the Ukrainians at all, they obviously have the tech talent to do the work. I'm 100% sure they've gotten a lot of advice from all their Eastern European NATO neighbors about sticking NATO systems on their WP equipment. Between such advice and their own ingenuity they've pulled some impressive feats. I'm just amused at the breathless commentary from YouTubers.

[pmulcahy11b]

One of the interesting items I noticed from the cockpit shots was the use of a Garmin commercial GPS receiver in a jury-rigged mount.

As far as mixing the use of Russian and Western equipment, look to the Indians, who do that on a regular basis. They buy systems from everyone, and mix and match as they see fit.

[swaghauler]

Perun's Weekly Powerpoint

Here's Perun's weekly PowerPoint on the Ukraine War discussing logistics and other issues.

https://youtu.be/ce5TR-qWCk4

Swag

[swaghauler]

Strategic Aims of the Ukrainian Offensive

Here is Peter Zeihan's take on the strategic goals of the counter-offensive. While I don't always agree with Mr. Zeihan, he does make a lot of valid points and his economic expertise is far beyond my own.

https://youtu.be/Tb3U9Ydiw64

Swag

[kcdusk]

The body go pro footage was a good watch. Even without direct enemy contact, every minute was on edge.

Also, theres been a bit of talk about how far away you can see the enemy (contact ranges) on the FL site. And this video showed me, that even if you can see a T-62 tank at range 500m. Whose is it Ours (Ukraine) or theirs (Russian). My main point being sometimes range is short, and even then identifying friend or foe can be hard.

[Raellus]

Ultimate Catfish

And this video showed me, that even if you can see a T-62 tank at range 500m. Whose is it Ours (Ukraine) or theirs (Russian). My main point being sometimes range is short, and even then identifying friend or foe can be hard.

Especially when both sides are using the same gear.

Reports out of Ukraine claim that Ukrainian military personnel are claiming to be hot young women on Russian social media platforms. When Russian military personnel in Ukraine respond to said catfishing posts, Ukrainian cyber-war personnel use the geo-location data in the Russian responses to target those troops with artillery and drone strikes.

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[swaghauler]

The body go pro footage was a good watch. Even without direct enemy contact, every minute was on edge.

Also, theres been a bit of talk about how far away you can see the enemy (contact ranges) on the FL site. And this video showed me, that even if you can see a T-62 tank at range 500m. Whose is it Ours (Ukraine) or theirs (Russian). My main point being sometimes range is short, and even then identifying friend or foe can be hard.

This is exactly why I broke my Observation & Spotting Chart (before someone DMs me and asks, YES it is posted on this website) in a chance to spot people and a chance to spot vehicles by "range bands" [for the spotting chance]. Keep in mind that SPOTTING and IDENTIFYING are two separate tasks.

[Raellus]

What's Next

So Ukraine's counteroffensive seems to be going quite well, especially in the northeast. Russia's suffered another major defeat. I'm not ready to count Russia out yet, but Ukraine's recent successes are worth celebrating.

What's next I saw one breathless headline today suggesting that Putin's days in power are numbered. That's rather sanguine, and probably naively hopeful.

I'm quite surprised that I haven't seen any dire predictions of what an increasingly humiliated and desperate Putin might do in the coming days and weeks. In the first few weeks of the war, as the Russian drive on Kiev sputtered to a halt, a lot of news outlets presented the possibility that Putin might resort to tactical nukes to regain momentum and achieve his strategic goals. As more Western aid appeared in Ukraine, Putin rattled his nuclear sabre.

At present, it seems like no one's particularly worried about potential use of nuclear weapons anymore. It seems to me that if Putin were ever to authorize/order tactical nuclear strikes, it would be now, with Ukrainian forces at the border in the northeast. Is Putin going to gracefully accept defeat He missed his opportunity to declare victory a couple of months ago. Any such declaration now would ring hollow, and a strategic withdrawal or peace overture would appear to signal defeat. That doesn't strike me as Putin's style at all.

What do you think the coming weeks will bring

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[Tegyrius]

Has Putin made many public appearances lately The past months have seen repeated speculation that he's in poor health, with photos over the summer seeming to bear that out. His reported COVID-19 paranoia also has kept his face-to-face contact with advisors and staff rather circumscribed.

- C.

[Heffe]

I think any predictions being made right now in this regard would be little more than guesswork, all being predicated on the idea of whether or not Putin is behaving as a rational actor any longer.

In my opinion, it's only a matter of time until Kherson falls back into Ukrainian hands - the Russians there are surely running short on fuel and ammunition, with no way to resupply other than by hand across the Antonivka bridge. When they're dry on ammo, I don't see them as having much other choice than to retreat across the bridge or surrender, leaving their heavy equipment behind.

As for Putin, how will he take the situation in the northeast and in Kherson when the above scenario comes to pass If he's behaving as a rational actor, he'll sue for peace. He'll recognize that the war has failed, his military will take a generation to rebuild, and that the entire endeavor was a waste of time and resources. He'll try to keep the Donbas region through negotiations, though I think that by now he's lost the chance to hold onto the Crimean Peninsula.

If Putin isn't a rational actor (anymore) or is getting super desperate because his own life is on the line I think there's a lot of things he might try, including but not limited to targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (power plants, water processing facilities, etc), calling up the Russian reserves, instituting a draft, etc. I don't think he'd actually resort to using nukes, but so much depends on how far gone he is.

As for him potentially targeting civilian infrastructure, Russia wants people to support Russia. If he starts going after power plants just as winter is starting, he'll lose the possibility of holding Donbas as the people there will see him for the monster he is. As for the draft or calling up reserves, it's clear that his equipment stocks are on the path to depletion, which means any reserves would likely just be light infantry. Does he risk sacrificing a ton of Russians into a meat grinder and risk losing what popular support he has in Russia I don't think he'd want to go that route either, but again, who knows

[Targan]

As for the draft or calling up reserves, it's clear that his equipment stocks are on the path to depletion, which means any reserves would likely just be light infantry. Does he risk sacrificing a ton of Russians into a meat grinder and risk losing what popular support he has in Russia I don't think he'd want to go that route either, but again, who knows

Russian leaders sending vast waves of young Russian soldiers to their doom is standard operating procedure though, isn't it At least for the last couple of centuries.

[Heffe]

Russian leaders sending vast waves of young Russian soldiers to their doom is standard operating procedure though, isn't it At least for the last couple of centuries.

It certainly is, and maybe well see it again I genuinely dont know the internal situation in Russia right now. I know a large portion of the population arent fans of Putin, and surely a lot of them are willing to protest. The old timers and more conservative elements of the population though I dont know if theyd support a draft or not. And how heavy a hand would Putin take with his own people if the protesting gets bad Just a lot of unknowns there.

[Rainbow Six]

I'm quite surprised that I haven't seen any dire predictions of what an increasingly humiliated and desperate Putin might do in the coming days and weeks. In the first few weeks of the war, as the Russian drive on Kiev sputtered to a halt, a lot of news outlets presented the possibility that Putin might resort to tactical nukes to regain momentum and achieve his strategic goals. As more Western aid appeared in Ukraine, Putin rattled his nuclear sabre.

At present, it seems like no one's particularly worried about potential use of nuclear weapons anymore.
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The Times carried an article on the above subjects on Friday

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-putin-use-nuclear-weapons-these-are-his-options-t7k2vsgc5

I'm not sure if you'll be able to view it as I think it's behind a paywall (I have a subscription and checking without logging in would suggest you can't but it may be different outside the UK). Options mentioned in the article were

1. Detonate a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea as a demonstration of intent and see what happens

2. Intensified conventional attacks on major population centres, e.g. Kyiv

3. Blow up the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

4. Tactical nuclear attack on Ukrainian armed forces

[bash]

The Times carried an article on the above subjects on Friday

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-putin-use-nuclear-weapons-these-are-his-options-t7k2vsgc5

I'm not sure if you'll be able to view it as I think it's behind a paywall (I have a subscription and checking without logging in would suggest you can't but it may be different outside the UK). Options mentioned in the article were

1. Detonate a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea as a demonstration of intent and see what happens

2. Intensified conventional attacks on major population centres, e.g. Kyiv

3. Blow up the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

4. Tactical nuclear attack on Ukrainian armed forces

The problem with rattling a nuclear saber is it's only scary once unless you actually use a nuke. After nothing happened after Putin's nuclear talk back in February I think it's apparent he has no intention of ever using nukes.

1. Putin has a decent enough lock on power within Russia. Even if Russia pulled out of Ukraine tomorrow the internal spin would just say "Mission Accomplishski" and the majority inside Russia would cheer.
2. People outside of Russia don't care about Russia. Russia only is concerning to some ex-Soviet satellites that are now backed up by NATO. Russia won't invade them. Russia is also ruined economically and militarily for decades now. Putin will be gone before they're able to threaten anyone again.
3. The US likely has a pretty good handle on Russia's nuclear arsenal and isn't worried about them using it. Like the rest of Russian equipment it's been rotting since the 90s. Hydrogen bombs need constant maintenance (tritium expires) lest they become just low yield fission bombs.
4. Putin nuking anyone runs a very real risk one of several nuclear armed powers says "screw it" and drops a ground burst on whatever dacha he spends the most time at. The rest of the world would probably give that country a mulligan and a sternly worded letter of thanks.