OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Ursus Maior]

Human wave attacks vs US designed cluster bomb artillery shells from Turkey. This is going to be bloody.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10/turkey-cold-war-cluster-bombs-ukraine/

I remember ICM-DP rounds being worth their weight in gold in T2k, weird how it seems to be that way again.

In addition, Turkey cloned the M26 rounds for MLRS and HIMARS systems. Those are even more devastating.

[Heffe]

A lot of the systems you mentioned are at or nearing the end of their service lives and were scheduled to be phased out of service over the next couple of years anyways. In effect donating them to Ukraine just gets them off the books a few years sooner. It's kind of like a kid starting to outgrow some old clothes and, before that happens, handing them down to a younger sibling (or giving them to a needy neighbor). That says, the donating countries are getting nothing for them (whereas they could sell these systems on the secondary market to recoup a portion of the loss).

NATO defense spending has gone up since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (it was already trending that way before said). Giving Ukraine mountains of military aid in the form of weapons systems and ammo gives NATO militaries a nice excuse to ask for bigger budgets and shiny new toys.

Transactionally, I'm less concerned for NATO than I am for Ukraine. Maintaining such a motley assortment of older, but new-to-them, vehicles and weapons systems is going to be extremely challenging, especially under wartime conditions. And, despite major similarities between analogous systems (say, for example, a Chally and a Leo), each system requires an adequate training cycle in order to be employed effectively.

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Ukraine has proven remarkably adaptable when it comes to onboarding with new equipment, but you're undoubtedly correct in that it's got to be an enormous challenge managing the various logistical needs, especially in wartime. Regarding the crews, I recall hearing that Ukraine had, was it tens of thousands of soldiers training in the UK a few months ago I feel reasonable sure at least some of those were some tank crews getting up to speed on the Chally 2.

[Raellus]

Numbers Game

This is what I'm worried about. Ukraine may be able to pace, or even pull ahead, of the Russians in operational AFV and artillery numbers, but the manpower disparity is beginning to tell. 100k military casualties on both sides favors the Russians. Yeah, the replacements they're mustering are very poorly trained and equipped but, as Stalin once said, "quantity has a quality all its own". If Belarus joins the fight...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-casualties-significantly-well-over-100k-says-top-u-s-general

From the article,

"The foreign intelligence service informed security politicians in the Bundestag in a secret meeting this week that the Ukrainian Army is currently losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day in battles with the Russian invaders" in Bakhmut, according to Der Spiegel."

In all likelihood, the bulk of those casualties consist of Ukraine's more experienced troops.

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[castlebravo92]

Does anyone have any recent numbers for Ukraine's mobilization

I've read reports that they've sent a fairly sizable number of troops to NATO countries for training on various platforms, and they are clearly operating on more of a total war / full mobilization footing than Russia is, which suggests they'll be able to absorb battle casualties better than Russia can without a similar mobilization on their part.

There was a joke about this last round of conscripts and convicts Russia was sending to the front were getting more training this time around and were going to be much more formidable than the last wave - 2 days of training instead of 1!

I'm guessing the weather is preventing Ukraine from launching counter attacks to relieve the pressure on Bakhmut.

[Ursus Maior]

This is what I'm worried about. Ukraine may be able to pace, or even pull ahead, of the Russians in operational AFV and artillery numbers, but the manpower disparity is beginning to tell. 100k military casualties on both sides favors the Russians.

The casualities are vastly discrepant and by now means the same for both. It's 100k KIA for the Russians plus countless WIA, MIA and POW. The Russian chain of rescue for WIA is abysmal, their hospitals ill-equipped.

On the contrary, Ukraine has around or likely above 100,000 total casualities, including KIA, WIA, MIA and POWs with Western support in later stage medical treatments, logistical help in getting first aid material and first aid training to the front. Their ratio of KIA and WIA will be far superior to Russia's and their abilities to regenerate combat effectiveness from WIA will be far better. Also, Ukrainians are likely to reenlist and volunteer for service. Russians more or less have to force their citizens into service and have been scraping the barrel for months.

Also, Belarus isn't going to join them. Despite the fact that Lukashenka has allowed Belarus to become essentially Russia's biggest training grounds.

[Ursus Maior]

Does anyone have any recent numbers for Ukraine's mobilization

Latest official numbers by the Ukrainian - minister of defense Reznikov - government were from July and stated that:

"There are up to 700,000 people mobilized for the Armed Forces, up to 60,000 border guards, up to 90,000 National Guards, and up to 100,000 National Police. Today, we have more than 1 million people in uniform ensuring the security and defense sector," said Reznikov.

https://babel.ua/en/news/81183-the-minister-of-defense-named-the-number-of-ukrainians-mobilized-to-the-armed-forces

I'm guessing the weather is preventing Ukraine from launching counter attacks to relieve the pressure on Bakhmut.

Both sides seem to mass troops around Zaporizhzhia and Russia claims it started an offensive their: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/16167...on-supply-live

[Raellus]

General Mud

I'm guessing the weather is preventing Ukraine from launching counter attacks to relieve the pressure on Bakhmut.

The winter weather is undoubtedly miserable, but sub-zero conditions means the ground is frozen, which allows heavy AFVs to move off-road/cross-country. In the spring, when the ground thaws, Ukraine's infamous Rasputitsa makes it difficult, if not impossible, for heavy AFVs to operate off-road.

If Ukraine isn't pressing to relieve pressure on Bakhmut now, there must be other reasons besides the weather.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/mud-in-ukraine-history-of-russian-army-and-rasputitsa.html

The almost clockwork arrival of the Rasputitsa in early spring makes Russia's decision to launch its invasion of Ukraine in February deliciously ironic.

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[Vespers War]

The winter weather is undoubtedly miserable, but sub-zero conditions means the ground is frozen, which allows heavy AFVs to move off-road/cross-country. In the spring, when the ground thaws, Ukraine's infamous Rasputitsa makes it difficult, if not impossible, for heavy AFVs to operate off-road.

If Ukraine isn't pressing to relieve pressure on Bakhmut now, there must be other reasons besides the weather.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/mud-in-ukraine-history-of-russian-army-and-rasputitsa.html

The almost clockwork arrival of the Rasputitsa in early spring makes Russia's decision to launch its invasion of Ukraine in February deliciously ironic.

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Depending on where in Ukraine one looks, they haven't necessarily had sustained sub-zero temperatures. Kharkiv, sure, they've stayed below zero all month. In Kherson, the only days in January where the high temperature was at or below zero Celsius were the 8th and the 19th. In Melitopol, only the 19th and 20th had a high of zero, every other day this month has been above freezing. Zaporizhzhia has had 9 days above freezing and 13 at or below freezing. I've seen speculation that Ukraine's not moving much along the southeastern front because the ground's not frozen hard and mobility is worse than if it was colder.

[Ursus Maior]

If Ukraine isn't pressing to relieve pressure on Bakhmut now, there must be other reasons besides the weather.
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My take is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are getting to the point of being overstretched. Not necessarily is this the case in form of personnel, there are plenty of light forces in the Bakhmut area available (cf. https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-333-summary/ and here: https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/), but they begin to feel the lack of tanks, IFVs and ammunition. They have been pretty clear on that for months now: warning of coming Russian offensive operations and dire logistical situations, especially concerning Soviet type ammunition.

With the newfound attacks in the Zaporizhzhia oblast and front, there might not be enough of an armored relief force available as of now, in order to counterattack north of Bakhmut against Russian forces at Soledar.

I wouldn't be surprised, if Ukraine has to regroup to towns West of Bakhmut soon, maybe as far as Kostyantynivka. That's only 10 km to the Southwest and the city is pretty well fortified by now. But it'd still be a problem regarding the information warfare for some time.

[Raellus]

The casualities are vastly discrepant and by now means the same for both. It's 100k KIA for the Russians plus countless WIA, MIA and POW. The Russian chain of rescue for WIA is abysmal, their hospitals ill-equipped.

On the contrary, Ukraine has around or likely above 100,000 total casualities, including KIA, WIA, MIA and POWs with Western support in later stage medical treatments, logistical help in getting first aid material and first aid training to the front. Their ratio of KIA and WIA will be far superior to Russia's and their abilities to regenerate combat effectiveness from WIA will be far better.

Recent reports put Russian KIA and WIA, combined, at between 100-180k. Ukrainian losses- again, both KIA and WIA combined- are believed to be upwards of 100k. That's not even a 2 to 1 ratio in Ukraine's favor.

I'd like to see some POW figures from both sides. My impression is that more Russian troops have been captured, but what's the actual difference Is it statistically significant

Again, Ukraine is at or near full mobilization. Russia, on the other hand is not. They still have untapped manpower reserves. Yes, qualitatively, Russia's replacement troops are inferior but, quantitatively, Russia still has a decided edge.

Also, Ukrainians are likely to reenlist and volunteer for service. Russians more or less have to force their citizens into service and have been scraping the barrel for months.

True, but I worry about the psychological toll that almost a full year of near continuous combat operations is taking on the Ukrainian military. Combat exhaustion is real. Physical and psychological wounds tend to degrade combat effectiveness over time.

Also, Belarus isn't going to join them. Despite the fact that Lukashenka has allowed Belarus to become essentially Russia's biggest training grounds.

Why are you so certain

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[kato13]

I know the Russians have a history of coming back after unfathomable losses, but so many intangibles are working against them:

• Return rate of WIA (after recovery)
• Nearly 100k troops being trained outside of Ukraine up to NATO standards.
• Equipment is shifting to more current generations rather than the opposite
• New trucks daily, while Russia never really focused on them and is really scraping the barrel for anything to move equipment.
• Ukraine has greater sources of Artillery rounds, yes both sides are going to need to curtail their usage, but unless China starts to supply Russia they will be hit much harder.
• US/Nato Satellite Imagery and C3I.

[Raellus]

Abrams On the Way! (or How do you say Leopard in Ukrainian)

The floodgates have opened, it seems. Not only is Germany authorizing the transfer of several nations' Leopard II tanks to Ukraine, but the US is sending 30+ of its own Abrams MBTs as well.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-german-tanks-435da2221bf452a8aae9d2e58d23acae

I'm a bit concerned about the Abrams' logistical requirements (especially re their gas turbine engines). Apparently, that was one reason that the US initially balked at the transfer. It might end up being more helpful symbolically than militarily. The acquiescence may have been required to end Germany's reticence to authorize the transfer of the more numerous, less thirsty Leopards. Reports indicate that Ukrainian tank crews have been training on the Leopard in Poland for weeks now.

My biggest worry is what Putin's response will be. There's been saber-rattling before the transfers were even confirmed. He may try something desperate before the modern Western MBTs arrive on the battlefield. This could lead to the escalation the German government was worried about. We shall see.

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[kato13]

Current MBT commitments and possibilities.

UK - 14 Challenger 2 battle tanks,

Germany - 14 Leopard 2 tanks (Arriving within 3 months),

Poland - 14 Leopard 2 tanks,

USA - 31 Advanced M1 Abrams tanks,

Portugal - 4 Leopard 2 tanks

Spain, Norway and Finland also said that they are going to send their own Leopard tanks but they are currently weighing the numbers.

Also, Netherlands is considering to buy 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and providing them to Ukraine as they don't own any.

Funny after always looking at a minimum of battalion numbers(40-58), these counts do look like T2k Division MBT numbers.

[Raellus]

Also, Netherlands is considering to buy 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and providing them to Ukraine as they don't own any.

This is particularly ironic being that, during the Cold War, the Dutch did own/field the Leopard II. They got rid of them in around 2010, essentially because Russia was no longer perceived to pose a threat to Europe (resulting in budget cuts and force restructuring).

Funny after always looking at a minimum of battalion numbers(40-58), these counts do look like T2k Division MBT numbers.

So true!

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[Vespers War]

Current MBT commitments and possibilities.

UK - 14 Challenger 2 battle tanks,

Germany - 14 Leopard 2 tanks (Arriving within 3 months),

Poland - 14 Leopard 2 tanks,

USA - 31 Advanced M1 Abrams tanks,

Portugal - 4 Leopard 2 tanks

Spain, Norway and Finland also said that they are going to send their own Leopard tanks but they are currently weighing the numbers.

Also, Netherlands is considering to buy 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and providing them to Ukraine as they don't own any.

Funny after always looking at a minimum of battalion numbers(40-58), these counts do look like T2k Division MBT numbers.

The 18 from the Netherlands are tanks they're currently leasing with an option to buy.

Spain's Leopard 2 apparently will be whatever can be repaired within 2 months from the 53 Leopard 2A4 currently in storage at Zaragoza. They have 108 total of that model, but the other 55 are in Spain's North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. They also have a bunch of Leopard 2E/2A6, but those are in active service and (AFAIK) not being discussed as potential transfers.