4th Economics 101

[RandyT0001]

Just started this process. Anybody have a more detailed, step-by-step, explanation of going through the process

[mmartin798]

Wish I could help, but I don't think you are talking Keynesian economics here.

[RandyT0001]

I have read the examples on p.238 several times but I cannot determine for what purpose or process the multiplier in the Livestock and Aquaculture chart is used. If the author or contributor of that part of the book would explain that to me I would greatly appreciate it.

[mmartin798]

While I do not have 4th edition, I can venture a guess. Since active and efficient livestock and aquaculture, i.e. cattle ranching and fishing, gives a good amount of food for a smallish investment of human labor you get more man hours for things like manufacturing and the like. Therefore, you get a multiplier for those. But it is just a guess.

Ok, a little more explanation of my guess may be in order. A tribe of people need to expend a certain amount of effort procuring basic food, water and shelter. If the activities they use are really bad hunter/gatherer, then all their work goes into that and nothing for economic growth. So Frank, Tom, Harry, Lisa and Mary are a tribe and all are out gathering food and can only serve their needs. Let's say Frank learns to Fish and does so very well. Now Frank is able to get enough food so that Harry and Lisa don't have to do anything for the tribe to survive. This lets Harry and Lisa to start making and stringing clay beads into jewelry. Now they have something the tribe can trade because Frank is able to fish and feed more of the tribe. Does that help at all

[bobcat]

also lacking 4E at the moment but to expand on what mmartin said lets say i've got a small group of 10 survivors. if we're trying to survive by hunter/gatherer means we have to spend the majority of our time on that. this limits the time we can spend on shelter and other needs. if we have livestock we have more free time to spend on other tasks and are more readily able to spend time/effort/resources for additional pursuits. this allows us to increase our agricultural base to include more crops/livestock which further reduces the amount of time and resources we have to dedicate solely to survival allowing further economic growth and (i'm not sure if this is even in the game) increases the likelihood of making our own technological advancement or salvaging pre-doomsday tech.

granted if you permit population growth from surrounding groups of survivors moving in and increased birthrates due to excess free time you can almost achieve an exponential growth effect economically and technologically.

again however this is just how i've been wargaming the settlement developments in my games and may or may not apply to 4E. its just keynesian macroeconomics dumbed down to fewer variables so i don't go insane with my plotting.

[bobcat]

and now that i think about it i have a good idea for a GM tool to hack together in Java.

[RandyT0001]

Bump

Does anybody have a more detailed step by step process or flow chart for this section in the rule book The examples do not flow from one to the next segment very well, there are too many gaps to follow the process.

[ArmySGT.]

Worker provides a base 2000 hours per year. The labor pool is 2/3 of the population to account for those to young, old, or disabled to be part of the pool.

Determine number of laborers.

Determine food requirements.... 300 kg wheat (or equivalent), 50 kg meat, and 150 L of milk (or dairy products) per person, per year.

100 villagers requires 100 x 300 kg or 30,000 kilograms of wheat (or equivalents).
100 x 50kg or 5000 Kg of meat

100 x 150 L or 15,000 liter of milk ( or dairy products)

Crop yield multipliers are crops other than wheat; corn is x2 of wheat, or yields 600 kg equivalent of wheat per year, per hectare.

The amount of grain to feed livestock is subtracted from the total out put...... it is part of the cost for meat and milk.

Tech level is key to how much is produced and how much land to do it.

Tech level D 40 (50) or 40 hours for 50 hectares. Yield at Tech level D is 1300 kg per hectare or enough for 4.3 persons per year.

30,000 / 1300 is 23.08 hectares of wheat. 23.08 x 40 = 923.2 hours of labor for the year.

For the animals ........ I am still baffled.

[ArmySGT.]

The base units and the input units is very confusing..... It comes in at the end apparently ......

What I don't understand is does it mean the amount of labor it took to get to that output (since the village foundation) or the amount per year to get that output

[ArmySGT.]

I asked Chris Garland through the MP facebook page if an economics tutorial could be made and posted to Youtube. He wrote back that he will speak with the author of that section.

Could everyone else like or comment on that so it shows some interest from the fan base

[robj3]

Hello all.

I wrote the Economics chapter but didn't have a chance to edit it for clarity.
I agree that the final text is far from clear.

In overview:
Start with the settlement's Tech Level and population.
Calculate the size of the labor pool.
Distribute workers into agriculture, mining/mfg/construction, distribution, services.

Work through each sector.
- how do I feed the population with the farmers available
- how do I produce the raw materials the community needs
- how is agricultural and factory product distributed
- how are service workers distributed
- how much energy is required to run everything
- where does everyone live


RandyT0001 wrote:

I have read the examples on p.238 several times but I cannot determine for what purpose or process the multiplier in the Livestock and Aquaculture chart is used.

It is the same as that used for other forms of crops. If wheat is 1, milk is 1/12.

Example:
At tech level E, each hectare allocated to wheat will produce 1,300kg per year.
If I run dairy cattle, that hectare will produce 1300/12 ~ 108kg of milk per year. But I'm going to need more area than that to run a cow.

ArmySGT wrote:

For the animals ........ I am still baffled.

For the 100 person village, you need to produce 5,000kg of meat or 15,000L of milk per year.

15,000L milk at Tech Levels A-C:
~83 hectares of pasture, requiring 15,000kg of corn equivalent feed.

5,000kg meat at Tech Levels A-C:
eggs - ~33 hectares for egg-laying chickens which need 15,000kg of feed
*poultry - ~43.5 hectares for broilers which need 12,500kg of feed
*pork/mutton - 100 hectares for pigs/sheep which need 30,000kg of feed
*beef - 200 hectares for cattle which need 65,000kg feed
*lamb - ~278 hectares for lambs which need 85,000kg feed
*shellfish - ~2.3 hectares which need 15,000kg of feed
*fish - 23 hectares which need 15,000kg feed

* This is for what is going to be eaten that year. Typically, 1/10 of a herd/flock is eaten each year.

Raising livestock needs a lot of land and food at any tech level.
Labor requirement falls away quickly with higher tech levels.
See the 'Tech Level Multiplier' table on p.236 (if my proof copy is the same as the final print).

What I don't understand is does it mean the amount of labor it took to get to that output (since the village foundation) or the amount per year to get that output

Each worker has a base and input cost "expressed in labor years per worker at that tech level" (p.237).

The base and input cost varies with industrial sector - it is meant to represent the resources required to maintain productivity at that tech level.
Base is initial capital cost, inputs are annual maintenance, fuel etc. cost.

So a single Tech A farmer can manage 143 hectares of wheat in a 2,000 hour labor year, producing 314,600kg of wheat. This farmer needs 40 Tech A-years worth of equipment with annual costs of 3 Tech A-years worth of fuel, parts, pesticide, etc.

[ArmySGT.]

Hello all.

I wrote the Economics chapter but didn't have a chance to edit it for clarity.
I agree that the final text is far from clear.

First let me say, thank you very much for taking your time to explain this here. Have you written a flow chart, or any step by step tutorials, for this economics section I think it is one of the more important tools in the new edition.

In overview:
Start with the settlement's Tech Level and population.

Is this something the PD determines on his / her own I did not see a min/max for this, or does the economics at the end determine if the population can support itself

Calculate the size of the labor pool.
Distribute workers into agriculture, mining/mfg/construction, distribution, services.

This is based on the percentages on page 237, correct Everything is lumped under farmers but, raising livestock is a complete other vocation.
I realize that farmers often have livestock in addition to their crops, this is however more like a side job or alternate revenue. For a rancher or dairy operator the livestock is all the work, making for long days on its own..... I milked cows one summer. Seven days a week, twice a day, no days off. Not my fondest memory but, the pay was sweet for a young man.

Work through each sector.
- how do I feed the population with the farmers available
- how do I produce the raw materials the community needs
- how is agricultural and factory product distributed
- how are service workers distributed
- how much energy is required to run everything
- where does everyone live

I understood these were all modifiers..... So it begins with the total yearly hours for all farmers combined, as a base 2000 hours per farmer, without community traits.
One farmer = 2000, Ten farmers = 20,000

Can you explain how to determine the base value for inputs

The necessities for pesticide, fuel, feed, material, etc; I understood what this was for but, not how to determine the base cost of inputs.
Pesticide and fuel would come from petrochemicals, while feed for livestock is diverted from feed (cereals) for humans. Then the other stuff; is input something that must be deducted from the village output So that there is enough to maintain, or expand the following year
The inputs have to be significantly different by tech level, yes

RandyT0001 wrote:
It is the same as that used for other forms of crops. If wheat is 1, milk is 1/12.

Example:
At tech level E, each hectare allocated to wheat will produce 1,300kg per year.
If I run dairy cattle, that hectare will produce 1300/12 ~ 108kg of milk per year. But I'm going to need more area than that to run a cow.

Should the PD determine the food requirements for the village, and all the village livestock, then determine what the farmers are producing That is how I would go about it. After everyone is fed, then I can determine who is growing a surplus for trade, or luxury items like tobacco.

The other thing is the time to yield......... I fully understand that a Tech A or B farmer on a tractor is going to out produce the lower tech levels. What effect does this have on village creation Less farmers dedicated to feeding the population / livestock, and more producing surpluses for trade Is this meant as a way to divert excess farmers back over to other trades The base number of hours per year / hours per hectare yield simply means more hectares can be worked by one farmer Am I reading to much into this

ArmySGT wrote:
For the 100 person village, you need to produce 5,000kg of meat or 15,000L of milk per year.

15,000L milk at Tech Levels A-C:
~83 hectares of pasture, requiring 15,000kg of corn equivalent feed.

5,000kg meat at Tech Levels A-C:
eggs - ~33 hectares for egg-laying chickens which need 15,000kg of feed
*poultry - ~43.5 hectares for broilers which need 12,500kg of feed
*pork/mutton - 100 hectares for pigs/sheep which need 30,000kg of feed
*beef - 200 hectares for cattle which need 65,000kg feed
*lamb - ~278 hectares for lambs which need 85,000kg feed
*shellfish - ~2.3 hectares which need 15,000kg of feed
*fish - 23 hectares which need 15,000kg feed

15,000 kg of corn divided by the modifier for the corn yield at that tech level This determines how many farmers are diverted to cattle feed

Does this come from the base cost + inputs Is this what has to be at a minimum, or a minimum plus seed for the next year Wheat and Milk are the base of the food chain for people, and corn is the base for livestock Should the PD be trying to vary the meat types Wouldn't rabbit, turkeys, and goats make more sense at lower tech levels without refrigeration and means to process a large carcass Salt..... Animals need it, people need it, picking, smoking, and drying foods for preservation of meats need it. How would this factor into base cost and inputs Salt may be easy for a village by the sea or in Utah, someplace is can be mined, others salt may be very precious indeed.

* This is for what is going to be eaten that year. Typically, 1/10 of a herd/flock is eaten each year.

Raising livestock needs a lot of land and food at any tech level.
Labor requirement falls away quickly with higher tech levels.
See the 'Tech Level Multiplier' table on p.236 (if my proof copy is the same as the final print).

Is the other 9/10ths part of the input or over and above the input for the succeeding year

Each worker has a base and input cost "expressed in labor years per worker at that tech level" (p.237).

The base and input cost varies with industrial sector - it is meant to represent the resources required to maintain productivity at that tech level.
Base is initial capital cost, inputs are annual maintenance, fuel etc. cost.

So a single Tech A farmer can manage 143 hectares of wheat in a 2,000 hour labor year, producing 314,600kg of wheat. This farmer needs 40 Tech A-years worth of equipment with annual costs of 3 Tech A-years worth of fuel, parts, pesticide, etc.

I think how to determine the inputs went over my head. Are inputs equal to and in addition to labor years

[RandyT0001]

So I am submitting this community to be used as an example for Robj3 to use in order to demonstrate the step-by-step process of creating a community. It is the largest town within the town classification.

Summerset, Kentucky in Pulaski County
Summerset sustains itself with food and meat. It exports opiates to New Manhattan. Summerset is the single source for tires for the Free States M35 trucks, P-47 planes and the V300 vehicles. The tire plant also exports tires for other trucks and cars used within the Free State. Summerset also exports lumber to New Manhattan to supply its building boom.

Tech level: C
Population: 5,000
Compassion, Discipline, Curiosity, and Organization at 50%
Labor force: 2,222
Agriculture: 222
Mining, etc.: 666
Distribution: 556
Other Services: 778

Agriculture
Required Food: 1,500,000kg
Cabbages, etc.: 300,000kg
Potatoes, etc.: 300,000kg
Corn: 300,000kg
Apples, Beans, etc.: 300,000kg
Wheat, Peanuts, etc.: 300,000kg
Required Meat: 50kg
Poultry: 40kg
Beef: 10kg
Opiates: (1-10 farmers worth)

Mining, etc.
Extraction
Forestry Must produce at least 365 tons per year of lumber for export. It also must produce 1/4 of the communitys yearly inputs.
Manufacturing
Refinery, coal to liquid plant Must provide 800 barrels of oil per year for tire production. It must provide enough coke to serve as coal for the communitys power plant. It also must produce 1/4 of the communitys yearly inputs. The necessary coal is imported.
Tire plant Must produce 1000 tons of tires for export per year.
Food processing - Must provide enough capacity to process 750 tons of food per year.
Workshop, general - It also must produce 1/2 of the communitys yearly inputs and that which is required for the manufacture of tires.

Distribution
Services and Government
Farms
Forestry
Community trade

Other Services
Services and Government

Education
Students: 1,250
Primary: 875
Secondary: 250
Tertiary: 40
Teachers:
(Structures, transportation)

Health Care, etc.
Firefighter (full time):
Ambulance:
Doctor:
Dentist:
Nurse:
Pharmacist:
Beds:
(Structures)

Law Enforcement and Military (quiet/mature)
Judiciary:
Police:
Soldiers:

Energy and Infrastructure
Housing: Density of 25 people per hectare
Transportation Network: Must have at least one rail line through the main town for importation of coal and exportation of tires, lumber and opiates.
Energy: Coal power plant burning coke from refinery.

[ArmySGT.]

In overview:
Start with the settlement's Tech Level and population.
Calculate the size of the labor pool.
Distribute workers into agriculture, mining/mfg/construction, distribution, services.

Tech Level E.. Late Steam 1880s (pg 208)
Large Settlement 300 persons
Organization. 60% Leadership 30% Domain 3km2 per person 900 km2 (Pg 212)
Community trait None (pg214)
Labor pool: 47% under 15, 50% 15-64, 3% over 64%, 141, 150, 9 (pg 236)
Labor pool = 150 persons 15-64 / .66 = 99 Laborers
2000 labor hours per worker = 198, 000. Tech level E multiplier 4. 198000*4= 792,000 labor hours per year. (Pg 236)

Work through each sector.

Tech level E. Farming 11-25, Miners, Makers, Builders 25, Deliverers 20, Services (32+. 99*0.25= 25, 99*0.25=25, 99*0.25 =25,99*0.32=32)
25+25+25+32= 104 (more workers needed than currently available. Depending on farms output this may balance out with a reduction in agriculture workers. (Pg 237)

- how do I feed the population with the farmers available

Agriculture Sector Tech level E. 80 hours per 25 Hectares per farmer (2khours per farmer per year)
Yield for Tech level E. 1300 kg wheat per hectare. Supporting 4.3 persons base cost 6, input 1 (WTF is the explanation for base cost and input Description in the rule book is lacking. Where do you use this What are the modifiers per tech level)
Can produce 900Km2 = 90,000 hectares (1 hectare = 10k meters2) One person requires 300kg equivalent per year. Village needs 90,000 Kg equivalent of wheat for 300 persons. 300*300=90000 (pg 237)
25 farmers with 25 hectares apiece per year equals 625 Hectares in farmland. (Pg 237) 812,500 kg of wheat per year possible; enough to feed 2708 persons annually. Outputs from other crops have their own modifiers (Pg237) 90,000kg wheat/1300Kg per hectare = 69 hectares = 2.76 or 3 farmers to produce the minimum wheat requirement at tech level E for 300 person.
Consumption = 50Kg meat and 150L milk per person per year.
Village need 300*50kg meat per person, per year, or 15,000 kg of meat produced. Village needs 300*150 liters of milk per person, per year, or 45,000 liters consumed as milk, cheese, butter, etc.
Milk = 180kg per hectare. 45000/180= 250 hectares to produce 45K liters with 2-10 hectares per animal, assuming 10 hectares for a cow and 2 hectares for a dairy goat.
This is where I quit again. The table on (pg 238) has no explanation for the production, amounts per hectare, or why this spins off into man hours (to determine number of farmers) so one can eventually determine the kilograms per food type to feed the village.

So I can never get past agriculture to eventually get on to any of the other Economic sectors in determining whether a village is functioning or starving.

- how do I produce the raw materials the community needs

- how is agricultural and factory product distributed

- how are service workers distributed

- how much energy is required to run everything

- where does everyone live

[mmartin798]

(WTF is the explanation for base cost and input Description in the rule book is lacking. Where do you use this What are the modifiers per tech level)

My reading is that the base cost is used when establishing or expanding a farm for things like additional harnesses, tractors, buildings, etc. The input cost is recurring for things like seeds, fertilizer, etc. So it you are just building a settlement under the assumption it is functioning normally, you really can ignore all the base costs, since those would have already been paid, and just use the input costs to determine the overhead of running the farms in this case. Same would hold true for all the industrial and energy sectors.

All the descriptions of base cost talk about durable equipment and personnel training. That is why if the settlement is assumed to be stable, you can ignore those. If there was a plague or something that wiped out people, equipment or structures, the base costs would have to be paid again. At least that is how I read it.

I am still trying to figure out the tech level modifiers though.