Poland After OMEGA

[Raellus]

I'm currently reading Rising '44 (by Norman Davies) about the valiant but doomed efforts of the AK (Polish Home Army) to liberate Warsaw ahead of the advancing Soviet Army in the late summer of 1944 and it's inspired me to try to steer the player group in my campaign towards helping the Poles whether the storm and regain their independence in the wake of the American's withdrawal from Europe (ie OMEGA).

I'm learning that the Poles have a long history of vigorously opposing occupying armies, especially those from the East, and I can't see them rolling over and allowing dozens of Soviet divisions, some of which have gone rogue, to camp out on their territory indefinitely. I think that many Poles would want to get them out as soon as possible but it's a pretty complicated proposition.

The [loyal] Polish armed forces are clearly outnumbered by the Red Army forces in Poland. Significant Polish forces are no longer under centrallized control (the Krakow ORMO, the Margrave of Silesia's forces, etc.). The Soviets presumably still have nuclear weapons and might be tempted to use them to close their back door should they decide on a general withdraw from Polish territory (especially if "loyal" Polish Army units become rebellious).

Working in the Poles' favor, the Soviets might want to bring some (or, less likely, all) of their divisions back to the Motherland to deal with the various separatist and marauder elements already operating on home soil. Perhaps the Soviets could be persuaded to leave peacefully.

There seem to be a lot of interest "macro"-level, strategic gaming opportunities in Poland, post-OMEGA: uniting Polish factions (this may be a good time to explore the Black Madonna, if it's not been addressed earlier), negotiating with independent Polish, Soviet, and German units. Fighting marauders and hostile foreign forces. General rebuilding operations. It seems like a rich, dangerous, Byzantine setting for all kinds of RPing fun.

I'm not very familiar with Polish canon after OMEGA. Return to Warsaw seems like a rehash of Ruins... . White Eagle appears to deal mostly with Poland south of Krakow. Perhaps some of the questions I've raised are already addressed by these "Return to Poland" modules. None of them appear to deal with the activities of the various Soviet Armies still listed as being on Polish soil as of late summer, 2000.

What is your take on post-OMEGA Poland

[rcaf_777]

I image Poland being devided after a formal ceasefire is signed, with small units of Marine have FOB along a DMZ with a few units of Army troop UK and US training a new Polish Army the New West Poland would the free Polish legions and the Krakow ORMO, and the Margrave of Silesia's forces. Krakow would become a new Captial and Polish Government in Exile would set up a government

[pmulcahy11b]

There's some fanfic (can't remember which site) about an operation that takes place after OMEGA. It's pretty decent. If no one can find the site, let me know; I'm pretty sure I downloaded the whole thing to my hard drive at some point, and hopefully, the author won't object to my posting it on my site.

[kato13]

Wouldn't the "Return to Europe" series cover some of this. I never played through it so I don't remember any details.

[Abbott Shaull]

I had the Warsaw but don't remember what was mention. One thing I do remember what was left of the Soviet Army was by all practically purpose melting away as an organized army following orders from Stavka and Theater Commanders.

There were areas under the control of the Polish Free Congress. Most regions where what was left of the Polish First, Second, and First Tank Armies had various militias reinforced, many of them working with the PFC other going independent for the time being waiting to see who to support. The Soviet supported government was still Lublin, but they controlled on the city. Some of the best organized areas were those under the control of the 14th MRD and their feudal state that was set up there and the 8th MRD and it City-State of Krakow.

While those areas that had Soviet troops station or such as areas east of Krakow and south of Lublin had marauder problems. Other units were on the move back to their homelands in the Soviet Union. Some units had stayed put either setting up their own feudal states/petty dictatorship or absorbing into the local militia. By this time there were few Soviet units in Eastern Europe who were accepting orders. If they were, they more interested in preserve what limited forces they had than waste lives.

Just some thoughts.

[Raellus]

Wouldn't the "Return to Europe" series cover some of this. I never played through it so I don't remember any details.

Not really. Like I said, Return to Warsaw is basically Ruins of Warsaw Part II and White Eagle deals with southern Poland. Bear's Den is set in the Ukraine. There's not much about northern Poland were Polish units predominate or western Poland where there are numerous Soviet units (as of 07/00). I haven't looked very closely at Castle by the Sea yet, though.

Maybe I missed a module somewhere. That's why I asked. I'm also wondering if any forumites out there have worked anything up for post-Omega Poland.

Paul, anything you can share would be much appreciated.

[simonmark6]

I haven't got my modules to hand, but there are some clues to the situation in Poland that might help:

1) White Eagle: Free Polish Partisans are fighting the paranoid King of Silesea, there are a few clues to the state of Southern Poland;
Filipowicz is becoming an egomanical despot
There are independant forces in Czecoslovakia that are looking at Krakow and Silesia greedily
There's been a coup in Krakow and it's looking more fragile than ever, it's suggested that Krakow may soon fall into either chaos or to enemy forces
2) The ruins of Warsaw: The continuing existance of the Black Baron as a threat to peacful citizens suggests that there are few organised forces policing theland. The fact that the Black Baron could last a hard winter without the Northern Polish and Soviet forces crushing him suggests that units in the north are not interested in or able to aid recreation.
3) The Bear's Den: the Ukraine is making a bid for independance and is also threatened by a Pro-Nato unit in the Caucuses.
If the Soviets want to maintain internal security, they are probably pulling units back to deal with this. I'd make the Ukraine a major theatre in the Summer of 2001, returning Ukranian deserters would swell the Bear's army and Soviet forces from Poland, Russia and Roumania would be fighting to retake the Ukraine and establish lines of communication between the Motherland and the Ploesti oilfields.
This potential conflict might start to empty of organised Soviet units and allow Poles to reassert themselves somewhat.
4) Eastern European Sourcebook
The 8-ball division are trapped in the Baltic States and ae likely to get tangled up with these States' attempts to stay independent of the Soviets. Again, if the Soviets decide they want the Baltic States back, this would draw forces from Poland.
5) Survivor's Guide to the UK
In the summer of 2001, the UK are planning their own OMEGA but they also plan to bring their heavy gear home with them. If they succeed, this leaves the Germans facing the Poles pretty much on their own. With the French on German territory, I can't see the Germans taking offensive actions against the Poles, but if the same adventurers that started the war are still in command I could be completely wrong....
6) Howling Wastelands
The drought that effectively kills of the USA results in bumper crops in the UK and Europe, this will help recovery in the long run.

So, looking at all the clues and basing assumptions (which could be totally spurious and incorrect), I'd suggest that as the Americans and British leave, the Soviets will withdraw their organised divisions from Poland to deal with internal issues, fighting marauders, regaining the Ukraine and Baltic States. This would leave Poland with breathing space and growing crops to start recovery.

The problem is, which Poland There lies the rich roleplaying environment that Rae craves. I think it's more than feasible and also a very interesting scenario.

[Legbreaker]

Poland in 2001 is a desolate, war ravaged and almost unpopulated wasteland by and large.
Poland more than any other country suffered from the front crossing it twice, uncounted nukes spattered all over, depredation by marauders, disease, famine, and just about everything else imaginable.
According to the East Europe Sourcebook (EES) the prewar population stood at 38,300,000. In mid 2000 it's down to barely 9,000,000 - a decrease to just 23.5% of 4 years before. 735,000 (about 8%) of these live in the remains of the major cities. Looking at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Poland and EES, we can work out on average cities have a population just under 10% of prewar.
From The Black Madonna we know that 2.9 million of these casualties were in Silesia - a staggeringly high percentage of the whole countries deaths. Again looking at the above sources, we can work out 80% of the population in Silesia lives in the three largest centres leaving the countryside with a population density of about 1.6 per square kilometre, or 4 per square mile (down from a prewar rural figure of 81 per sq km - 210 per sq mile).

So, as can be seen in the south, there must be a lot of bodies still laying about unburied - it's not like there's too many people around to take care of them all!

The situation is certainly better in most other parts of the country, but with a greater population density probably comes greater problems in the form of marauders. When in areas not directly under the influence of a powerful faction of some kind, lawlessness is likely to prevail.

To put it into T2K 2.0 terms, Silesia could be considered Devastated while in other areas the default might be Terrorised. It's doubtful that there'd be many regions that could be classified as Organised or Independant outside the range of the nearest machinegun.

[Targan]

Poland more than any other country suffered from the front crossing it twice, uncounted nukes spattered all over, depredation by marauders, disease, famine, and just about everything else imaginable.

Front crossing it twice At least four times, possibly more.

[Legbreaker]

Nato attacked across it in 1996/97 and was pushed back in late 1997.
Other than some minor local activity, most of the action in 1998 appears to have taken place to the south and not in Poland.
1999 saw the front lines staying relatively stable and in 2000 nothing much happened until the summer offensives.

It's hard to say that US XI Corp alone "crossed" the country - only the US 5th ID and 8th ID really made any headway.

[pmulcahy11b]

According to the East Europe Sourcebook (EES) the prewar population stood at 38,300,000. In mid 2000 it's down to barely 9,000,000 - a decrease to just 23.5% of 4 years before. 735,000 (about 8%) of these live in the remains of the major cities.

IIRC, that death toll is, percentage-wise, worse than the Black Plague of the Middle Ages!

[Legbreaker]

Somehow I tend to think uncounted nukes fired off at anything even vaguely worthwhile would have a greater impact on population than a simple disease....

[Raellus]

Somehow I tend to think uncounted nukes fired off at anything even vaguely worthwhile would have a greater impact on population than a simple disease....

At the risk of getting us OT, the Black Death of the mid-14th century was no "simple" disease. Most modern scholars believe it was actually two diseases, Bubonic Plague and, later, the much more deadly Pneumonic Plague. Some people have postulated that it was actually neither but instead a hemoragic fever of some sort, much like Ebola.

Furthermore, medieval folks had no idea what caused it, maving prevention and treatment alomst impossible.

[Adm.Lee]

Poland in 2001

This is a campaign I'd wanted to play/run, 'cause I always wanted to see who would emerge on top in Poland. The first run of Poland modules actually hooked me on Polish history, it's now habit for me to root for the Poles whenever possible.

I've stared at the "Return" modules long and hard, but by the time they came out, my group had long dispersed, and soon the end of the Cold War drained away the enthusiasm. "White Eagle" seemed the best starting place for such a campaign. When reading "Black Madonnna" the possibility of a King touched a romantic nerve. Then I read about him going nuts-- oh, well. The sentimental favorite would seem to be the People's Army, with the Black Madonna, gaining the power of Krakow and the trade league there to win. Even if they could defeat the King and keep the Czechs at bay, would they then be strong enough to hold off the rest



IMO, what would happen is that political groups would build around some cores, like Krakow, Silesia, and whatever local powers rose up, including marauders. Warlords would be the common term, and their power base would be their wartime commands, plus any foreign mercenaries they could get their hand on.

The Soviets would melt away as a threat on their own, I think. Some divisions had already started to melt away as men deserted, I could easily see a lot of men just deserting to try to go home. Small or large bands of these could become mercenaries for whoever wanted to rule an area. Some Soviet generals might decide to become warlords, like their Polish counterparts. Any Soviet forces still listening to orders, or higher HQs, would likely walk out sooner or later, as the NATO threat to the homeland diminishes.

Given that neither side retains much capability to mount a real ground-gaining offensive, and about half of the Americans and nearly all of the British are leaving the Continent in the winter of '00, NATO is at least as crippled as the Soviets. It certainly would seem unable to press all the way to the Soviet border. Were I a Soviet front commander, I would say, "job done," and go home.

Hmm-- here's a thought. One or more Soviet higher-ups get the idea to talk cease-fire with the Germans, say, a Front commander. If he can tell the troops around him, "I've ended the war, let's go home!" he would be fantastically popular with "his boys." And with the local Poles, whom he could badger for a one-time gift of food and fuel, to enable their withdrawal. But not with any KGB hard-cases, if there are any left. That sounds like a game-- the PCs are NATO (or German or Polish) operatives tasked to keep Marshal Popularov alive, at least until he goes far away.

Anyway, as I see, Poland is depopulated, both sides' armies are going home, so the new Poland will coalesce around several centers, that will have to jockey for position against one another. Foreign mercenary soldiers will be important, as local men might be preferred to settle on the land. Some of the mercenaries could be paid off in land, as well, after a suitable term of service (5 years 10 If they live that long).

Edit: I'm probably going to be thinking on this again for a while today, time to break out the maps again!

[pmulcahy11b]

At the risk of getting us OT, the Black Death of the mid-14th century was no "simple" disease. Most modern scholars believe it was actually two diseases, Bubonic Plague and, later, the much more deadly Pneumonic Plague. Some people have postulated that it was actually neither but instead a hemoragic fever of some sort, much like Ebola.

Furthermore, medieval folks had no idea what caused it, maving prevention and treatment alomst impossible.

I vaguely remember seeing on one of the science or history channels that the "Black Death" may have been as many as five diseases with similar symptoms, including both bubonic and pneumonic plague.