Poland After OMEGA

[Legbreaker]

Although XI Corp have their backs solidly against the ocean, there simply aren't any port facilities in the area capable of handling them, even today. Throw in several years of warfare and nukes, and....

For the XI Corp to go anywhere, it has to be by land, at least in the initial stages.

[Abbott Shaull]

That is the entire point by Spring or early Summer 2001 there may be enough withdrew/faded away/change sides from in between the German III Corps and the US XI Corps

Then the next question is how much of the of the forces left in this area are Pro-NATO and if they would it be more productive to keep the XI Corps there to keep their portion of Poland stabilized long enough for the for NATO friendly government in Poland to take control of their region.

With the US and UK largely out of the fight. What is left of NATO on the main land have to turn their attention toward rebuilding and consolidating. I am sure there would be number of troops who would want to leave for home in the XI Corps, but I don't see Germany, Danish, Sweden, or any other government that was still left in NATO in 2001 being willing to support such a move. As a whole what remains of NATO would be disappointed in both the US and UK for their leaving them high and dry. Not many of the Governments could blame the US or UK doing so.

What real value would the US and/or the UK would get out of the XI Corps even if they were able to withdraw the remains of the Corps including the the remains of the II MEF which would have collapse upon the 2nd Marine Division. I am sure the remains of the various elements of German, Polish, and Danish Governments would love to keep the XI Corps in their region to help rebuild.

[Rainbow Six]

What real value would the US and/or the UK would get out of the XI Corps even if they were able to withdraw the remains of the Corps including the the remains of the II MEF which would have collapse upon the 2nd Marine Division.

I've said before that I personally think that as soon as the BAOR comes home the game is up for most if not all of the separatist and marauder elements in the UK - quantitively and qualitively I don't think they are any match for the BAOR. The only question is how long they can hold out (and how much damage they inflict on HMG whilst doing so).

XI US Corps (or even a relatively small part thereof) would be an immense force multiplier. I'm not suggesting thay a combined BAOR / XI Corps would "pacify" the country in six months, but XI Corps' presence could (I think) significantly reduce the time that it takes HMG to get large parts of the country back under control.

I am sure the remains of the various elements of German, Polish, and Danish Governments would love to keep the XI Corps in their region to help rebuild.

I don't doubt it, however what the UK Government might - and it is a very big might - be able to offer that others cannot is an eventual way home to North America. We know from canon that the UK has sufficient shipping to withdraw two Divisions with equipment at some point in time and also has access to North Sea oil, so there is a possibility that eventually those who want to go home can do so. And as I mentioned previously, there's an added benefit to the US Government inasmuch as they eventually get more troops home, possibly with AFV's and heavy equipment without having to arrange the evacuation themselves - the British do everything for them.

Like I said, it is a totally random, and in some ways totally "out there" idea, and there are problems - Leg pointed out the lack of suitable ports on the Baltic, which simply never crossed my mind...but maybe it could work...

[Fusilier]

If there are no enemy forces between their cantonments and Bremerhaven, why can't the elements of XI Corps just walk west A fuel shortage explains, in large part, the ultimate failure of the Summer XI Corps offensive but it doesn't explain the failure of XI Corps to evacuate northern Poland in the fall.

It can, if the nearby Pact units to the East are still mechanized and mobile. There doesn't have to be anyone blocking them in the West.

If they hoof it out on foot, leaving their heavy armor behind, then the Pact units nearby won't have a hard time running them down, outmanuevering them, and simply using superior (one sided now) firepower.

XI Corps can be fixed in place, unable to move, because if they do they won't be able to break contact and will be ultimately overwhelmed. Their armour and artillery would be like a double edged sword - keeping them alive but helplessly trapped at the same time.

[Raellus]

Part of the retcon could be that XI Corps feared there were PacWar forces in between them and Bremerhaven. Given the state of intelligence gathering, it's possible that they mistook the position of real PacWar forces or the blocking force is completely imaginary.

Intel gathering in 2000 is definitely not what it was in early '97, but XI Corps should have enough recon assets (LRS companies, ad-hoc LRRP units, and elements of the 116th ACR) to determine that significant enemy forces aren't blocking the route west.

Granted, precedent does exist for massive intel failures in the Twilight War (i.e. the "misplaced" Pact Corps that destroys 5th ID), but that's a slightly different situation. The 5th was plunging deep behind enemy lines and at least a couple of the units that smashed it were thought to be in the Ukraine or thereabouts. In the case of XI Corps, were talking about much shorter distances and an area essentially behind friendly lines. The XI Corps commander would have to be paralyzed by fear in order not to do anything to at least determine ground truth in the AO before making such a far reaching decision (i.e. to stay put in NW Poland indefinitely).

[Raellus]

It can, if the nearby Pact units to the East are still mechanized and mobile. There doesn't have to be anyone blocking them in the West.

If they hoof it out on foot, leaving their heavy armor behind, then the Pact units nearby won't have a hard time running them down, outmanuevering them, and simply using superior (one sided now) firepower.

XI Corps can be fixed in place, unable to move, because if they do they won't be able to break contact and will be ultimately overwhelmed. Their armour and artillery would be like a double edged sword - keeping them alive but helplessly trapped at the same time.

This is a good point. I suppose that IF XI Corps was entirely out of fuel AND all the bridges between their positions and Bremerhaven were down AND they thought that significant PACT forces (at least a strong armored or mech Corps) were driving for the Baltic in order to cut them off, then staying put makes a ton of sense.

[Raellus]

Perhaps we should break it down. There are a lot of issues/factors at play here, and things are starting to get muddled.

Going Home states that "The XI Corps was cut off from higher headquarters after the Pact counteroffensive of July, and has remained in its positions out of necessity rather than by choice. It has been written off by USAEUR. The XI US Corps HQ staff is currently wintering in Kolobrzeg, Poland, along with the remnants of the 50th US AD. At of the beginning of the adventure, word of the evacuation has just arrived. Most of the Corps' personnel will decide to remain in place rather than risk the journey to Bremerhaven." (Going Home, p. 14)


1.) "The XI Corps was cut off from higher headquarters after the Pact counteroffensive of July..."

This is the smoking gun, as far as I'm concerned, suggesting a fairly serious continuity error on the part of the writers. No such forces are identified or mentioned in any of the canonical sources as being in the region in either July, autumn or winter of 2000. If a RetCon is required, this is what needs to be addressed. A powerful Soviet/Pact Corps or Army needs to be created and placed in NW Poland, either between XI Corps and the German border, or in the immediate vicinity.

2.) "...and [XI Corps] has remained in its positions out of necessity rather than by choice."

Once again, this suggests that the above-mentioned hypothetical enemy forces are still in the area between XI Corps and the German border and pose a clear and present danger to a large-scale evacuation/general withdrawal.

3.) "[XI Corps] has been written off by USAEUR."

If it's unable to move because of points 1 & 2, then this makes perfect sense and needs no further explanation. If no such enemy units exist, then perhaps USAEUR decided to sacrifice XI Corps to protect the evac site from a possible Dunkirk scenario.

Rainbow has theorized that XI Corps will be evacuated later, by way of the UK, after assisting in stabilizing that island nation. This is an interesting theory, but one belied by the "written off" bit. I still think that this alternative theory provides an intriguing segue for American PC groups wishing to play a campaign in the UK.

I've posited an alternative, political explanation, where the XI Corps command is suspected of throwing in its lot with CivGov, and is therefore deliberately left behind to strengthen MilGov's hand in CONUS upon the return of the OMEGA sealifts. Perhaps SACEUR feeds XI Corps bogus intel suggesting a possible PACT attack to keep them in place.

4.) "At of the beginning of the adventure, word of the evacuation has just arrived. Most of the Corps' personnel will decide to remain in place rather than risk the journey to Bremerhaven."

"[R]isk the journey..." supports the RetCon placing strong Pact units between XI Corps and the German border in the Autumn of 2000.

Also, its possible that the command element and soldiers of XI Corps are personally invested in the area and have made a conscious decision to "remain in place".

[Adm.Lee]

This is a good point. I suppose that IF XI Corps was entirely out of fuel AND all the bridges between their positions and Bremerhaven were down AND they thought that significant PACT forces (at least a strong armored or mech Corps) were driving for the Baltic in order to cut them off, then staying put makes a ton of sense.

XI Corps doesn't need to be completely out of fuel, but "low" can be low enough. If they have to abandon their heavy vehicles to walk out, even Red cavalry or barely mechanized forces can mop them up easy.

There may not be strong Pact forces in position to their west, but the possibility exists (not least in the minds of XI Corps HQ) that the Soviets could move one there. Once 5th Division ceases transmitting, does the Corps HQ really know where 4th Guards Tank Army is IMO, they could believe that there are more Pact forces, gas/diesel-fueled, lurking over the horizon. For a general & staff trained to fight for years with the benefits of radio communication, satellite and aerial reconnaissance, and other goodies; now that they've lost them, the "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" can add up pretty quickly. Do they really know where Red Bear Chelkov and his Army is The CIA claims to be in contact with forces near him, but do you trust them Those reports are pretty out of date by the time they get to XI Corps HQ.

Also, it's been mentioned that the Corps and its forces have some reconnaissance assets, but those can't go very deep and still provide rapid information anymore. If there are cavalry patrols (Pact Poles and Soviets) to the east, they can report that. How would you interpret it Whatever is out there to the east, it drove off III German Corps. That's a significant point of data.

Someone above said "paralyzed with fear"-- I would expand that to "with fear and uncertainty." And maybe command exhaustion. "There are no tired regiments, only tired colonels."-- Napoleon()

As for the Danes, I could support either the idea that they followed the Germans out, or that they found enough shipping on their own to float out. Neither event is likely to raise the morale of XI Corps HQ.

Finally, I think the idea of the British making an offer to pull them out in 2001 via the UK would make an excellent "Return to Europe" adventure for a group of PCs.

[Legbreaker]

I...the units that smashed it were thought to be in the Ukraine or thereabouts.

The 22nd Cavalry Army had in fact been confirmed to be in Byelorussia at the beginning of the offensive.
The 4th GTA were also confirmed to be in the Ukraine.

As of November 2000, there is little to indicated that either of these formations (particularly the 4th GTA) were short on fuel. It can be assumed though that the destruction of the US 5th ID took a lot out of them, requiring weeks, or even months to rebuild.

Throughout all the available resources, we see that there was widespread activity in the summer of 2000 all along the Poland / German front. It can be presumed that few units were not in contact to varying degrees with the enemy. It can also be presumed (or should have by the various commanders) that units pushed back from the front and relieved would have been rallied and held in reserve. Without modern recon abilities (air, satellite, etc) a commander could not know the exact state of these units and had to assume (until evidence was provided otherwise) they could be a problem for any operations.

We, as players, GMs, writers, etc know that the real state of affairs was one of utter confusion. Almost no unit retained much structural integrity, let alone offensive capability. The people on the ground however had lived, fought, and seen men die for up to five years. Even after units, cities, factory complexes and civilisation in general had been nuked almost back to the stone age, the military had remained. A relatively small (compared to a few years before) offensive wasn't likely to do what the nukes couldn't...

So, right up until physical confirmation had been received that the enemy had given up and gone home, commanders HAD to assume the war was still being fought and react accordingly, or risk their entire unit, nay, the entire war being lost.

This fact has to be at the core of all decisions a commander makes - in our current topic of conversation, the decision to stay put in a defensible location and not withdraw as per Omega.

Now, NATO in general may have felt the US leaving to be a betrayal, however they left all their heavy equipment behind, allowing the Germans to rebuild their military. The reduction of tens of thousands of hungry mouths from Germany would also have been a welcome relief for those who stayed.

It wasn't until the following year, once the situation had apparently stabilised and information was available to indicate the Pact were no longer a credible threat that the British withdrew. With the situation at home, it was also quite clear to the remains of the British government that leaving the troops in Europe was probably going to cause more problems than it solved. Bringing them home and using them there was definitely going to solve more problems than it created.

[Abbott Shaull]

The same said UK Forces were already in and around the Hanover region of Germany. Quite a bit far from their starting points of the 2000 offensive began and not in direction that would place them in contact with enemy Pact Forces either.

[Legbreaker]

A VERY different situation. The British, as far as I can work out, were Nato's reserve prior to the 2000 actions. Although there are indications they fought in the summer of 2000, they were never in danger of being cut off.
The British are also in a stronger bargaining position than the Americans too - they don't require anywhere near the same amount of fuel to get home (and as previously indicated, they can probably supply it themselves from the North Sea wells). Therefore, it's extremely likely they'd be able to take all their heavy equipment with them (not that they'd really need tanks and artillery back home, unlike the Americans with Mexican and Soviet forces on their soil).

[sglancy12]

This is probably a bit out of the box, but from time to time I've thought about the possibility of XI Corps "catching a lift" with the BAOR when it returns to the UK.

I don't think that's out of the box at all.

Even if XI Corps couldn't make OPOMEGA's departure date, where do you think a couple of thousand English speakers are going to want to settle down permanently Poland or the U.K. If I were HMG I sure as heck would be mulling over the possibility of recruiting all those Americans and Canadians.

Besides the language barrier, I've always wondered why US forces are always treated so hospitably by Poles in TW2000. Sure, the Sovs are brutal douche-nozzles, but the Americans sure did toss a lot of nukes around the Polish country-side. Even if there is such a thing as pro-NATO Polish Free Congress, I can't imagine their attitude towards Americans is going to be anything other than "Thanks for the Rads and for the mauling the Red Army... now f@*& off."

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Trooper]

Besides the language barrier, I've always wondered why US forces are always treated so hospitably by Poles in TW2000. Sure, the Sovs are brutal douche-nozzles, but the Americans sure did toss a lot of nukes around the Polish country-side. Even if there is such a thing as pro-NATO Polish Free Congress, I can't imagine their attitude towards Americans is going to be anything other than "Thanks for the Rads and for the mauling the Red Army... now f@*& off."

Living in Poland was not easy in the 80s. Eastern Europeans also had a very low standard of living during the Cold War.

I have read several books on the Estonian Forest Brothers. Only a small part of the Estonians began to resist the brutal oppression of the regime. Even food donations freedom fighters demanding a great deal of courage. This, therefore, despite the fact that Estonians have had universal military service (men knew how to use weapons) and weapons were readily available as soon as the fighting ended on Estonian soil. In real world partisan action is for those who are very brave or who have nothing to lose.

I can well imagine the Polish village. Local young men have died in the war at China in 1996 and 1997. Soviet troops committed quite serious raping & looting while they retreated through the village.

The villagers feared that scorpions will follow the snakes. To everyone's surprise, the Americans behaved like gentlemen. Freedom of speech was introduced. Communist regime absurd regulations were withdrawn. All unemployed men received well paying jobs from road building engineer unit. State owned land was distributed to local farmers. And there was something to buy from local shops.

When NATO retrieved many villagers were shot by polish state police. Nobody owned nothing anymore and kids were hungry - again. And now the russian started to use nuclear weapons! In october 1999 villagers killed their local communist officials and last ZOMO troops.

[helbent4]

If I were HMG I sure as heck would be mulling over the possibility of recruiting all those Americans and Canadians.

Besides the language barrier, I've always wondered why US forces are always treated so hospitably by Poles in TW2000. Sure, the Sovs are brutal douche-nozzles, but the Americans sure did toss a lot of nukes around the Polish country-side. Even if there is such a thing as pro-NATO Polish Free Congress, I can't imagine their attitude towards Americans is going to be anything other than "Thanks for the Rads and for the mauling the Red Army... now f@*& off."

Scott,

As tempting as that might be to HM's government to poach such personnel, Canada is still an ally (and Commonwealth member), still at war and who still needs all the personnel it can get. There might be a political cost, perhaps a diplomatic break some time in the future. Granted, Canadian and British personnel have been welcome in each others' ranks in wartime due to Canada's close relationship to the "mother country". Perhaps there would be some kind of quid pro quo with British personnel stuck in Canada being taken into service in the CF (as opposed to merely being part of the Anglo-German brigade).

Your point about Poland is well-taken. This element tends to be glossed over because American PCs (and other NATO countries, particularly German) would otherwise be put into a rather difficult position. I would imagine that even in games where NATO was fighting against a communist Polish government (v1 and v2/v2.2, depending) even the considerable numbers of Poles sympathetic to Solidarność and the Free Polish government will have a complicated relationship with their "liberators".

In Raellus' T2K game (running for a few years now at least) I play a Pole who in the past was a little ambivalent about his companions. Near the start of the game, my character had a philosophical discussion with a fellow Pole about the group's commanding officer, a German, as they passed through the ruins of Nowy Huta floating down the Wisla:

[Dawid] slouched over the rail, thinking about what [Griet] said. "Well, let us say I trust Kapitan Bayer as a leader, even though as a Pole I have little love for the rest of his people. After all, we're perhaps only 50 kilometres downriver from Oświęcim... what the Hitlerites called "Auschwitz"."

"I am proud to be a Pole and I love Poland! It hurts me what's been done to our country. The North Atlantic Pact [aka NATO] soldiers say they came to liberate us, but," he gestured at the destroyed city around them, "please, let us not ask the good people of Nowy Huta if they feel "liberated" in their graves. Those that have graves, that is."

While playing this game I also came to the realisation that the people of Poland, communist and non-communist, were getting a raw deal with the "RESET" situation. There were suggestions in "Free City" about how different factions could benefit from the plans and how the players could turn a profit. Nothing about how the Poles could benefit from what is one of the few remaining Polish national treasures (so to speak) that was likely gained at the expense of the lives of many or most of the remaining Polish scientific community. At least in "Black Madonna" there is the option of benefiting the Polish people via supporting the Wojsko Ludowa ("People's Army").

Tony

[Rainbow Six]

It wasn't until the following year, once the situation had apparently stabilised and information was available to indicate the Pact were no longer a credible threat that the British withdrew.

Per the Survivor's Guide to the UK, the first two Divisions to come home (2nd and 5th) left Bremerhaven for England some time in December 2000.

Therefore, it's extremely likely they'd be able to take all their heavy equipment with them (not that they'd really need tanks and artillery back home, unlike the Americans with Mexican and Soviet forces on their soil).

LOL...better to have and not need than need and not have...

Scott,

As tempting as that might be to HM's government to poach such personnel, Canada is still an ally (and Commonwealth member), still at war and who still needs all the personnel it can get. There might be a political cost, perhaps a diplomatic break some time in the future. Granted, Canadian and British personnel have been welcome in each others' ranks in wartime due to Canada's close relationship to the "mother country". Perhaps there would be some kind of quid pro quo with British personnel stuck in Canada being taken into service in the CF (as opposed to merely being part of the Anglo-German brigade).

Tony, original theory was that after an agreed time assisting to stabilise the situation in the UK, the final part of the deal would be HMG providing transport to the US and Canada for any member of XI Corps who wished to go home. That said, I don't doubt HMG will offer all sorts of incentives to any individuals who choose voluntarily to stay in Britain, but ultimately anyone who wants to go home would be able to do so.

You raise a valid point about the Anglo German Brigade - perhaps once the Canadian contingent of XI Corps is home, the Canadians might be able to look at ways of getting those troops back to the UK, possibly using the same ships that brought XI Corps to North America.

Dave