a bit of politics and history?

[headquarters]

well...

The whole domination of the world by the western powers are based on upholding a consumer economy on a scale never seen before in history.(well maybe some of the old crazy royal families in ancient Rome could match -burning down Rome and all..)

There is really only one incentive/driving power behind political and in the same footsteps -military expansion .

Economics .

There have been older systems that include less turn over,less money ( if any at all) etc -but it is a proven fact that these did not yield the same socioeconomic changes OR technological advances - and those changes that did come were infinitely slower -taking many generations to take root.

(democracy,electricity,abolition,antibiotics,legal equality etc)

Now- the consumer economy is the driving power behind the hegemony of the west -and the motivation for it .It is geared largely to run on fossil fuels -petroleum products in particular .The faster you can burn the oil means that the faster money will come in to fill your coffers.

A change will not come before it will start paying of to use other fuels and/or people start getting serious about enviromentalism meaning voting into power those who would actually let the consumer economy suffer and the enviroment thrive.This means massive social upheaval and political change .Millions of jobs will be lost .Living standards will drop drastically .The economy would have to change meaning that manufacture would be done closer to the markets,recycling would be the order of the day and people would have to pay more dearly for the items they purchase -and also they would have to take better care of them as they are more expensive than before.

Quite possibly the drop in living standards would only be felt for those of us lucky enough to be in rich western countries or are rich in the poor world .

The oil will run out .The wars to control it will become harsher and larger in scale and involve more of us than today .Hopefully noone will nuke eachother in the process ,but you never know.

Afterwards a new economic system will emerge -one that uses less petroleum products ,and quite posibly relies heavily on another fuel source .Some say this will be thorium or uranium even -meaning that new wars will follow to conquer areas where this resource is abundant etc etc .

There is always a reason to hope that alternate fuels like vegetable oils etc will win the day and become prevalent -meaning that a new economy based on the supply of such oil could become big.Some parts of the world already run vehicles on alcohol and vegetable oil etc .But in the end I take my marxist view of the historic process over the more cheery " it will all be alright in the end "..

all in my humble opinion of course

[Mohoender]

HQ

I kind of agree with you and my problem is: if someone can site me an invention that was made over the past 60 years, I'll be happy to know. I'm not talking of improvement but of pure inventions (inventions that have an impact also such as TV, car, radio, aircrafts, fuel engine...). As far as I know all that we have today was invented at least 60 years + ago and that might bring us to the point that you gave about older societies. Aren't we slowing down, making the crisis perfectly normal When I studied in the U.S. in the 1990's, I found an impressive and rich society; when I visited in the 2000's I found a country getting poorer and fast (not impressed anymore); a country that had developped some aspects that I somewhat could compare to Brazil. Today, my computer, car... are much more modern than the ones own by my U.S. friends unless they have enough money to buy foreign goods. Don't worry we are following the same path: over the past year France got less unemployed but the percentage of poor jumped from 11% to 13%. In the meantime, India got 22% more millionaires.

Then, I agree about hoping for some changes just to start the engine again. I don't know what you mean by economics but currently I found that our societies have gone for profits only, leaving benefits behind. Profit, from my point of view, is only the fuel and we forgot putting it in the engine. I have more respect for Howard Hugues when he pursues his crazy dreams or for Bill Gates when he gives 500 million$ for AIDS than for the guy currently leading Mycrosoft or IBM (I forgot which one) when he buys a third huge yacht. I'm all in support of life pleasure but when it finally goes to only that, I'm not sure we are going somewhere.

However, I agree with you about the idea that "everything will be fine at the end". Strangely I consider a possible general nuclear burst to be part of the fine end. Not one I'm hoping for so, therefore, If we could avoid that one, I'll be more than happy.

[Targan]

I kind of agree with you and my problem is: if someone can site me an invention that was made over the past 60 years, I'll be happy to know. I'm not talking of improvement but of pure inventions (inventions that have an impact also such as TV, car, radio, aircrafts, fuel engine...).

The fuel cell. Particularly the ones that run on hydrocarbons. They are the way of the future.

[Mohoender]

The fuel cell. Particularly the ones that run on hydrocarbons. They are the way of the future.

Didn't thought about them, that might be a very positive sign.

[jester]

Didn't thought about them, that might be a very positive sign.

Are you smoking something And you aren't sharing it!!!!

Solar cells
Chemo Therapy
Microprocessor
Micro Surgery
Artificial Heart


The new developements are there, they may be small, but small things do have an impact even though they go unnoticed.

[Mohoender]

Are you smoking something And you aren't sharing it!!!!

Solar cells
Chemo Therapy
Microprocessor
Micro Surgery
Artificial Heart


The new developements are there, they may be small, but small things do have an impact even though they go unnoticed.

I was waiting for you on that one

Solar cells are known since something like 1869 (sorry the process was recognized in 1839 and the first cells were made in 1883), chemotherapy was first used in 1909 (sifylis I think), microporcessor is only an improvement and computers were invented before WWII, microsurgery is an improvement that dates back to the early 1960's (I give you that one, nevertheless, as it is only about 50 years old), artificial heart could be considered as one but the first application dates back to 1953 (55 years ago again so I wasn't that far).

So, no I'm not smoking anything but I wish I was. However, I remain open to objections and I'll be happy to be proved wrong Actually, I was by Targan (fuel cells dated back to the 1970's, I overlooked that one) and I hope someone can find more counterexemple of this. Our grandparents have done a lot, I still wait for our parents to prove the same, we haven't done that much so far (may be nothing) and hope that our kids will.

This in an opinion of course, don't take it as an offense, and I hope to change it some day. The problem, is that I have been conforted in it overtime. Moreover, when I see American friends working like crazy just to get poorer everyday that makes me mad, about as much as when I see somme people (for exemple in France) that can make a descent living just siting around in their armchair. Nothing wrong about sitting around but, then, assume your choice. I'll agree that everyone must get enough to eat but I don't see why they should deserve a flat screen cable TV and a cell phone.

[jester]

ARGH!!! You are playing with a fine line here.

Da Vinci had concepts for alot of ideas and things too, but the ability to follow through was not possible for another four hundred years. There are big differences between theory and reality.

Lets follow through with,

Synthetic Fibers
Lazer Technology
FIBER OPTICs
MASS COMMUNICATION <the ability to transfer massive amounts of data>
Micro Dot
Space Tavel
Deep Sea Exploration
Deep Space Exploration
Rusable Space Vehicle
Modern metalurgy <we have developed some stuff that leaves the bessemer process in the stone age>

As for chemo therapy I was speaking in the common use as a anti cancer drug treatment. Which is leaps and bounds ahead of what it was 40, 30, 20 and even 10 years ago.

HIV treatment, in the last 30 years it has improved.

Anti Biotics, from Sulfa drugs, to Penicilin to any number of modern drugs that are being developed all the time. <of course new bacteria are also developed as well.>


Some of the above systems needs more than one form of technology and developement to make them work.

I am certain you can find primative examples and theories in history to say "its not new" but the idea and the reality of the idea are two different things. I mean going to the moon is not a new concept. Jules Verne even wrote a storey about it, as he did with deep sea exploration. However, the actual brining it to fruitiion is something all together different.

Remember, there is often a lag of technology even when it is available. Two prime examples would be the B-52 and then the Space Shuttle. When they were designed they have the technology of the day, but by the time they were completed and came off the assembly line the technology included in them was old. The same applies to many of the modern fighter aircraft, the lag between design and completed. Which makes one wonder what the current technology is that hasn't be incorporated into something

[Mohoender]

You are right about the fine line. That's why I said pure invention no improvements or applications. In fact, what I truly think is that people are inventing new things almost every day (small ones and big ones). The true problem will be that our current society will not finance them thinking that their ideas are either too risky or too expensive (after all they are fools). Even the new exemples that you gave are mostly from the early 1960's (for the most recent ones).

Synthetic Fibers (artificial silk 1799)
Lazer Technology (Einstein 1917, 1950 for a working one)
FIBER OPTICs (principle 1840, 1952 for a working one)
MASS COMMUNICATION <the ability to transfer massive amounts of data> (field of study not an invention)
Micro Dot (working process in 1870, WWI and WWII...)
Space Tavel (working process 1919, V2 in space in 1942, sputnik 1957)
Deep Sea Exploration (first working instrument 1840, lowest ocean point at 10911m, Jacques Piccard in 1960, nothing more ever since)
Deep Space Exploration (1957-1976, no program since that time outside of probes)
Reusable Space Vehicle (probably)
Modern metalurgy (to vast a domain as you said)

As a result we do a lot of research to improve the existing. Why starting an all new concept we just need to improve the old ones. If you go to people they are inventive, many have talents (if not all) and they are often dedicated. That's why I agree with HQ when he says that everything at the end will be fine.

I grew up dreaming about Mars and whatching Outlands. I woke up recently to learn that U.S. will stop actively participate in the international space program (too expensive). In the meantime, chinese have made a missile that can destroy sattelites (2005), they are sending people into space, they plan to land on the moon, they have organized olympics games for the handicaped that matched the normal one (almost no images of it), the Russians are selling Europe Soyuz, Iran sent a sattelite in orbit... I happen to hope being Chinese and I don't like that idea.

A friend of mine who died last year told me some times before that our society is not collapsing. He argued that it already collapsed some 40 or 50 years ago, stating that we just don't know about it. He had a good chance to be right but that doesn't mean the end. There is a good chance that we will go for a new start but it might be good not to wait too long. It's nice to finance the banks but he might be wiser to finance "Joe the Plumber" to put it as your candidates did. I would think that we baddly need some Openheimer, Einstein, Ferdinand Porsche, Clement Ader, Wrights brothers...

[kato13]

You are right about the fine line. That's why I said pure invention no improvements or applications.

There is a problem with the concept of "pure invention". IC engines can be traced back to the Greek steam engines.

Personally I think cell phones are a revolutionary advance which happens to be bolted onto an older technology (telephone system) and using another older technology (radio waves). But look at how it revolutionized communications in Africa and eased communications in areas of Europe where stringing wire was difficult.

My suggestions would include
Cell Phone
RFID tags
CAT/MRI scanning equipment
Internet
Digital Data Storage
GPS
Buckytubes

Of course someone could say GPS is just an improvement over the compass, sextant and clock. While digital data storage is only an advanced form of punch cards. When you increase the ease of use of something by a factor of over one million it really should be considered a revolutionary advance IMO.

And there is a reason why 60 years was picked. World War II accelerated development in some areas by 30 years IMO, leading to a bit of a skew in a chart of humanity's development of technology.

[jester]

You are right about the fine line. That's why I said pure invention no improvements or applications. In fact, what I truly think is that people are inventing new things almost every day (small ones and big ones). The true problem will be that our current society will not finance them thinking that their ideas are either too risky or too expensive (after all they are fools). Even the new exemples that you gave are mostly from the early 1960's (for the most recent ones).

Synthetic Fibers (artificial silk 1799)
Lazer Technology (Einstein 1917, 1950 for a working one)
FIBER OPTICs (principle 1840, 1952 for a working one)
MASS COMMUNICATION <the ability to transfer massive amounts of data> (field of study not an invention)
Micro Dot (working process in 1870, WWI and WWII...)
Space Tavel (working process 1919, V2 in space in 1942, sputnik 1957)
Deep Sea Exploration (first working instrument 1840, lowest ocean point at 10911m, Jacques Piccard in 1960, nothing more ever since)
Deep Space Exploration (1957-1976, no program since that time outside of probes)
Reusable Space Vehicle (probably)
Modern metalurgy (to vast a domain as you said)

As a result we do a lot of research to improve the existing. Why starting an all new concept we just need to improve the old ones. If you go to people they are inventive, many have talents (if not all) and they are often dedicated. That's why I agree with HQ when he says that everything at the end will be fine.

I grew up dreaming about Mars and whatching Outlands. I woke up recently to learn that U.S. will stop actively participate in the international space program (too expensive). In the meantime, chinese have made a missile that can destroy sattelites (2005), they are sending people into space, they plan to land on the moon, they have organized olympics games for the handicaped that matched the normal one (almost no images of it), the Russians are selling Europe Soyuz, Iran sent a sattelite in orbit... I happen to hope being Chinese and I don't like that idea.

A friend of mine who died last year told me some times before that our society is not collapsing. He argued that it already collapsed some 40 or 50 years ago, stating that we just don't know about it. He had a good chance to be right but that doesn't mean the end. There is a good chance that we will go for a new start but it might be good not to wait too long. It's nice to finance the banks but he might be wiser to finance "Joe the Plumber" to put it as your candidates did. I would think that we baddly need some Openheimer, Einstein, Ferdinand Porsche, Clement Ader, Wrights brothers...

So you are saying that we as a society, I mean most of the world at least are stagnating, standing still and in some cases slipping backwards instead of moving ahead ceatively. Hmmm, yeah, I will beleive that! Then again toss in bueracracy and that stifles everything, but then again with finite resources how do you determine who gets what

As for dreams of Mars and such, yes Iwas promised a mansion on the moon by the time I grew up! That missions to Mars and Jupiter would be as common as driving to grandmothers house for Sunday Dinner!!!!

As for space exploration. NASA is strange, you know they will be retiring the Space Shuttle fairly soon. They are already working on a new reentry orbiter. From some of the designs it is supposed to just fly rather than blast off like the traditional rocketships.

And these is/was some talk of returning to the moon.

Plus, we have had a couple vehicles land on Mars and they lasted much longer than their intended lifespan. And they did find signs of water! And those two were within the last year to 18 months.

And another lander went to one of the other planets, Mercury or Jupiter, I forget, maybe it was Saturn That was about six months ago as well.

However, you are talking about a what, 50 or 60 year period in time which is really just a blink of the eye in comparison to time of man and even less when compared to times beginings. So eh, no biggie.

I mean think of this, how long did it take for something of metal to catch on and spread throughout mankind

[Mohoender]

Jest

I agree and, of course, you right about the lifetime. However the previous bursting period was no more than about 100 years, 150 at most (not much more then).

Every society goes from bursting to slow moving period from time to time and as comm is faster these periods might get shorter. Usually, it ends up with hard political changes (often peaceful).

No really big deal in fact and also that is the positive point with crisis. They force governments and people to react out of their small comfy habits. As you kept saying, people don't like changing, but time of changes are not always negatives. As I said I'm a pragmatic idealist. I like dreaming but I know I'm living in a real world. The only thing is that I'm not averse to change.

[Targan]

I have to disagree with the suggestion that deep space exploration has ceased. Yes it has been decades since the launch of probes designed to leave our solar system but with the advances made in areas such as radio interferometry and aperture synthesis, the commissioning of near earth orbit telescopes operating on various wavelengths and even techniques such as using black holes as telescopes by taking advantage of gravitational lensing, astronomers have now been able to look so far back into our universe's past that they are nearing the actual limit. This is because the early universe, prior to the birth of the first stars, was so compact and hyper-dense in energy that it is not actually possible to look at what was going on inside.

Being able to perceive the earliest possible echoes of our primordial universe is, IMO, pretty darn impressive.

[Targan]

I mean think of this, how long did it take for something of metal to catch on and spread throughout mankind

I suspect even today there are still a few isolated tribal peoples who have not yet encountered (or are yet to start using) metal implements. In the deepest parts of the Amazon for instance. Even here in Australia there are still a few desert dwelling Aborigines who can remember encountering white people for the first time and thinking they were spirits or monsters of some kind.

[Mohoender]

I have to disagree with the suggestion that deep space exploration has ceased. Yes it has been decades since the launch of probes designed to leave our solar system but with the advances made in areas such as radio interferometry and aperture synthesis, the commissioning of near earth orbit telescopes operating on various wavelengths and even techniques such as using black holes as telescopes by taking advantage of gravitational lensing, atronomers have now been able to look so far back into our universe's past that they are nearing the actual limit. This is because the early universe, prior to the birth of the first stars, was so compact and hyper-dense in energy that it is not actually possible to look at what was going on inside.

Being able to perceive the earliest possible echoes of our primordial universe is, IMO, pretty darn impressive.

You right Targan but I found it too late to take that one out

[kato13]

I suspect even today there are still a few isolated tribal peoples who have not yet encountered (or are yet to start using) metal implements.

Or perhaps glass ones. Just a recommendation that everyone here should see the movie "The Gods Must be Crazy" if they have not.