Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[Nowhere Man 1966]

We can't embargo them -- they have oil and a lot of minerals and metals that we can't do without.

I think the U.S. can do well if we free some restriction here at home but Europe would be more screwed, except maybe the UK and Scandinavia from North Sea oil.

Chuck

[stormlion1]

An embargo against the Russians doesn't work. But a tightening of trade restrictions and increased Tariff's does.

[adimar]

I sometimes wonder if it was wise for the Ukraine to give up their nukes

Of course not. They traded the security of their country for a worthless piece of paper.

then again, it could be a bigger mess

Please excuse me, but I beg to differ. If the Ukraine hadn't traded their nukes than this whole mess would probably not have happened.

Which is the real lesson to be learned from this story.
You can bet your last cent that just about every small country, is looking at the situation in the Ukraine coupled with the feeble reaction towards Iran. And coming to the only reasonable conclusion possible.
We need to get some nukes.

Adi

[RN7]

The Polish natural gas industry and infrastructure could also benefit from US technology, equipment, and know how. Fracking could be the key to breaking the energy grip the Russians have over Western Europe. I know the UK is considering increased fracking as well.

Fracking has been so politicized on both sides of the Atlantic. Even though IMO this is logical and in times of potential conflicts compromises should be made, I still see this being a very tough sell.

The Russians and OPEC are already starting to get worried about the potential of American oil and gas oil shale that is being tapped through fracking. America's oil and gas shale reserves are so big they could potentially eliminate the monopoly that Russia and OPEC states have over the worlds energy supply.

Shale gas and oil reserves are also found in very large quantities in other countries notably Russia, China and Argentina among others. But America has a very significant advantage over the rest of the world in exploiting shale oil and gas for five main reasons; geology, technology, incentive, infrastructure and water. Fracking is still in its infancy but through current production from 14 major shale fields in the United States; notably Bakken in North Dakota and the Barnett and Eagle Ford in Texas; America has already overtaken Russia as the biggest producer of natural gas in the world and will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest producer of oil. By the 2030's America is projected to be entirely energy self sufficient. These figures are only based on what's being produced from active shale fields and conventional oil fields in the United States, but American industry is already retooling around petrochemicals because of it. But the biggest oil shale fields in America and the world hasn't even been touched yet, as they lie on federal lands beneath US western states. The Piceance Basin, the Uintah Basin and the Green River Formation of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are believed to hold between 1.5 to 3 trillion barrels of recoverable shale oil, which on the lower figure is five times the conventional oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Good news for us, and hard luck OPEC and Russia.

[kato13]

Shale gas and oil reserves are also found in very large quantities in other countries notably Russia, China and Argentina among others. But America has a very significant advantage over the rest of the world in exploiting shale oil and gas for five main reasons; geology, technology, incentive, infrastructure and water. Fracking is still in its infancy but through current production from 14 major shale fields in the United States; notably Bakken in North Dakota and the Barnett and Eagle Ford in Texas; America has already overtaken Russia as the biggest producer of natural gas in the world and will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest producer of oil. By the 2030's America is projected to be entirely energy self sufficient. These figures are only based on what's being produced from active shale fields and conventional oil fields in the United States, but American industry is already retooling around petrochemicals because of it. But the biggest oil shale fields in America and the world hasn't even been touched yet, as they lie on federal lands beneath US western states. The Piceance Basin, the Uintah Basin and the Green River Formation of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are believed to hold between 1.5 to 3 trillion barrels of recoverable shale oil, which on the lower figure is five times the conventional oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Good news for us, and hard luck OPEC and Russia.

Yeah th US is swimming in Natural Gas and will be for a LONG time. The biggest problem is transport. Ships are not as economically feasible for transporting gas as they are with oil. A trans Atlantic pipeline has been mentioned, but it has gotten about as much serious attention as a space elevator.

[Olefin]

Keep in mind that the US doesnt buy oil from the Russians - we buy some minerals but not much really - for an embargo to work the US has to get the EU to sign onto it and the former Eastern Bloc countries - and that means being ready to step up to the bar with natural gas -

Putin right now is only staying in power because of the petrodollars and gas dollars - cut into that and he is in big trouble very fast

[RN7]

Yeah th US is swimming in Natural Gas and will be for a LONG time. The biggest problem is transport. Ships are not as economically feasible for transporting gas as they are with oil. A trans Atlantic pipeline has been mentioned, but it has gotten about as much serious attention as a space elevator.

Shale gas is only the first phase of this. US East Coast LNG refineries that were importing large volumes of natural gas from OPEC countries as little as five years ago have stopped importing due to the volumes of shale gas now being produced in America, and are converting to export terminals. Gas hungry Europe is lining up to import American gas and the Russians are worried, and there is talk about exporting it to even more gas hungry Asia as well. Oil will be the next phase and this will kill OPEC and could lead to the US pulling its forces out of the Middle East who's importance will become redundant to America for energy supplies.

[kato13]

How is Europe set up for offloading It looks like 3-4 ships a day could offset the volume of Russian gas, but I am expecting it would require a total revamping of the distribution network. West to East rather than the other way around.

[RN7]

How is Europe set up for offloading It looks like 3-4 ships a day could offset the volume of Russian gas, but I am expecting it would require a total revamping of the distribution network. West to East rather than the other way around.

A lot of the OPEC gas that used to be shipped to America has been diverted to the European market so they already have an alternative source if things turn tasty. Europe is mainly a gas importer so they already have the infrastructure in place.

[stormlion1]

Shipping wise the US doesn't have enough ships to send anything to Europe large scale. The US and the EU would have to depend on short-term foreign flag carriers and there are not many set up for that kind of transport. That being said, shipyards across the planet would quickly receive orders for ships to carry product across the Atlantic, good for the ship building industry. The only other real option would be to build that long made fun of pipeline across the Atlantic. Of course they could do it from Newfoundland to Greenland down to Iceland and across to Europe from there. Only sections would be underwater and the rest on land. Only problem would be the Environmentalist screaming bloody murder and the potential for some foreign power in attempting to cut that pipeline at some point.

[RN7]

Shipping wise the US doesn't have enough ships to send anything to Europe large scale. The US and the EU would have to depend on short-term foreign flag carriers and there are not many set up for that kind of transport. That being said, shipyards across the planet would quickly receive orders for ships to carry product across the Atlantic, good for the ship building industry. The only other real option would be to build that long made fun of pipeline across the Atlantic. Of course they could do it from Newfoundland to Greenland down to Iceland and across to Europe from there. Only sections would be underwater and the rest on land. Only problem would be the Environmentalist screaming bloody murder and the potential for some foreign power in attempting to cut that pipeline at some point.

I couldn't see any US president signing off on a Trans-Atlantic oil or gas pipeline stretching from Newfoundland across to Greenland and Iceland and then terminating in England or France. It is probably feasible to build one but imagine what would happen if the there was a big oil leak under the Atlantic Ocean such as in the Grand Banks and it started killing off all the fish!

Among European countries only Denmark and the Netherlands are self sufficient in gas, and of the major European economies only Britain has large gas resources and that only meets half of its needs. I think there are about 400 LNG carriers afloat around the world at the moment. I don't know who owns them but I suspect all of the American and British supermajor oil companies have a few as well as the traditional main shipping countries in Europe and Asia.

[stormlion1]

That's the interesting part. It wouldn't be a US President who had to sign off on a transatlantic pipeline. Notice I said it started from Canada Plus it would have the advantage of going the shortest route. Environmental problems could also be managed by compartmentalizing the entire thing. A leak in one section can be quickly sealed by shutting down individual compartments.
And from what I can gleam from the depths of the Internet there are 370 LNG Carriers (50 owned by Shell) worldwide of various sizes that could be put to use transporting from the New World to the Old..

The interesting thing would be would someone attempt to cut this line (both pipeline or shipping) during peacetime to drive Europe back into Russia's economic embrace.

[Targan]

Australia exports natural gas to markets in Asia by ship. At the moment most of our gas comes from offshore fields in waters off the NW of my state. Production has really ramped up in the past couple of years and will continue to grow.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Of course not. They traded the security of their country for a worthless piece of paper.
Please excuse me, but I beg to differ. If the Ukraine hadn't traded their nukes than this whole mess would probably not have happened.

Which is the real lesson to be learned from this story.
You can bet your last cent that just about every small country, is looking at the situation in the Ukraine coupled with the feeble reaction towards Iran. And coming to the only reasonable conclusion possible.
We need to get some nukes.

Adi

I did some thinking about that today and I did come to the conclusion that you are correct. It's the old argument, would the Russians want to lose Moscow for Kiev Leningrad for Kherson I think this teaches one thing, perhaps you can count on some friends but when you cannot count on them or they can't help you, you got to take care of yourself.

Come to think of it, if the prevailing winds go my way, if I was the Ukraine and Russia does not stop, I'd dynamite, or otherwise blow, the containment system and Chernobyl and let the mayhem ensue.

Chuck

[Targan]

I have mixed opinions on the issue of small countries and nuclear weapons. My own country has an estimated 30% of the world's known uranium reserves and we are a technologically advanced nation so clearly we are well capable of becoming a nuclear-armed state.

As early as 1956 the Australian government investigated obtaining tactical nuclear weapons from the UK. We also poured a lot of money and resources into the Blue Streak missile program with the obvious intention of arming them with nuclear warheads.

Of course, that never came to pass. Apparently the British government back then was warm to the idea of assisting Australia in that area but the US definitely was not. Kind of sad really, especially since we let the Brits detonate a bunch of nukes out in the South Australian desert and on the Monte Bello Islands.

Then in 1970 we signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and ratified it in 1973, and that was that. Lucky for us we have powerful friends