Why no China?

[Olefin]

FYI if there was one area that got hit big time and I bet its the reason the Soviets were unable to finish the job in Korea is the area north of the Yalu River - if you read the canon the Soviets used a bunch of tactical nukes in that area to not only take out the 28th Chinese Army but also to majorly damage several US divisions - and have a feeling the US hit that area pretty hard as well as payback after they pulled back

must make getting any kind of supplies to North Korea and the troops that are there no fun at all if you basically have to traverse a wasteland to get them there

[unkated]

I agree completely with you - look at their delivery systems that they had - basically bombers that had very little chance of penetrating Soviet air space and if they Soviets got off their shots first most likely no surviving long range missiles - a few Soviet cities in the Far East might have been within their capabilities but no way do they hit the vital areas around Moscow or Kiev or Leningrad or Baku

Have to disagree with you.

The Chinese have the DF-4 and DF-5 ICBM.

• DF-4 (from China) can reach to US bases in the Pacific and Alaska, and across all of Europe to the Rhine. It is either launched from a cave or garage, or a silo. There are not many of these.
  
• DF-5 (from China) can reach anything except for South America. The DF-5 is usually deployed in pairs, in underground tunnels, and are rolled out and fueled before launch. For each missile, there are about a dozen fake tunnel entries (lest someone try to target them before use.
  
• China also would have had a few Long March 2A or 2C orbital launch vehicles to allow them to drop something anywhere. On the other hand, the facilities capable of launching the Long March are few - and well known.

However, the Chinese have few ICBMs missiles compared to the US or Soviets - a couple dozen DF-5s and fewer DF-4s. Unlike the US & USSR (who stock enough to destroy the other side even if hit first, as well as nukes for tactical (as opposed to strategic) uses, Chinese nukes are meant as a regional deterrent against against other nations with no or few nukes.

Now, having said that, this is not a nuclear force whose use would bring the USSR to its knees. If all survived to strike, the Chinese nuclear force is a fraction of the NATO/USSR exchange - and I doubt all of the Chinese units would have survived long enough to strike back - and some number were used operationally against Russian units in the field.

And that's before we discuss a "robust ABM defense"...

Uncle Ted

[Olefin]

One thing to keep in mind with the canon is that it was written in the mid-1980's and many of the Chinese missiles they were familiar with were deployed in small numbers - or they may have only known about the liquid fuel ones - and they have a crucial vulnerability

i.e. the DF-4 only had four missiles operational in 1984 - but they can definitely bust a city if they get off the ground - 3,300 kt explosive yield - but they have to be fueled prior to launch

the DF-5 of which they had around 15-20 took as long as two hours to fuel which had to be done in the open - giving the Soviets a pretty good chance to nail them on the pad - that is for the ones in the tunnels

the ones in the silos can be maintained at ready to fire - but they had a very limited number in silos

the DF-3 has a range of 3,300 km - not enough to reach Moscow but they could really screw up cities closer - there were 50 of them in 1993 but they also had to be fueled prior to firing - so they could be caught on the ground

the DF-11 is solid fuel and is the one that could be launched under attack with no prep time - but it has much shorter range - only around 300 km - but there are a lot of them - the question is would China have used them conventionally first and how many were left to put nukes on

you also have the DF-21A which went into service in 1996 which the canon authors would have had no information at all - its road mobile and has good range and a 300kt warhead - but who knows how many were ever made before the Soviets hammered China

as for bombers the canon writers would only have known about the 120 H-6 bombers they had that were a variant of the Tu-16

the Xian JH-7 Flying Leopard that has a range and payload exceeding that of the F-111 wasnt deployed until 1992 - those planes had a real chance of making it to target versus the H-6 bombers

So the real question is given the existence of ABM's in the timeline how many would have gotten off the ground (you figure the Soviets would go all out to get as many as possible) and how many would have been shot down

[Olefin]

Also China would have had no operational satellites for early warning - the only way they would have known about launches was from the US - and there isnt enough time to launch the liquid fuel rockets under attack - so that leaves you basically the solid fuel ones and maybe they get lucky and actually have a couple of liquid fuel rockets actually survive to get off the pads or silos

as for their Air Force - after two years of war with the Soviets it may be more a question of what was left of their nuclear capable aircraft when the time came - and you can see the Soviets going all out to knock as many out prior to the start of nuking China - and as opposed to the strikes against the US they didnt kid around with China - it was basically a full all out strike not just a couple here and there and slowing building up

[Olefin]

Example of a place I sure wouldnt have wanted to be in 1997 in the timeline

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-Second-Artillery-Corps.html

The 54th Base consists of six missile units in eastern China. These units are as follows:
801st Brigade, DF-5A, Lushi
804th Brigade, DF-5A, Luoning/Luoyang
813th Brigade, DF-31, Nanyang
U/I Brigade, DF-4, Sundian
U/I Brigade, DF-31, Xixia
U/I Brigade, U/I missile, Sanmenxia

Now the DF-31 wouldnt have been there but the rest would have - so you can pretty much count on those areas getting very heavily hit by the Soviets - those are the rockets that have the best chance of devastating the Soviet heartland

[Legbreaker]

Yes, I just can't see the Chinese nukes being a credible threat to the Soviets given the history of the war to date and clear advantage the Soviets had with satellite surveillance.
You can bet any silos would have been identified early and targeted with the first wave. Satellites and other resources would certainly be focused on the mobile launchers with strikes occurring the moment they were exposed.
Strategically, Chinese nukes are only likely to be of much use in a first strike, surprise situation. In T2K they had no chance to get more than a handful off the ground, and as written in the timeline, the Soviet ABM system was very effective against them.

[RN7]

In the mid-1990's the Chinese nuclear arsenal was very weak compared with the US and USSR in both real life and T2K timelines, and was in fact less capable than British and French nuclear forces. Even today it is still weak.

At this time China had two ICBM: DF-4 and DF-5.

DF-4 ICBM (Range: 5,500-7,000 km with 1x 3.3 Mt warhead)
DF-5 ICBM (Range: 12,000-15,000 km with 1x 4.5 Mt warhead)

The DF-4 was barely even an ICBM and could scarcely reach Moscow from the Chinese east coast. The DF-5 was a minimal Chinese strategic nuclear deterrent against both the US and USSR. Numbers for both missiles varies (from a dozen up to 40) but I doubt China had more than 25 of both missiles in total at this time.

China's force of IRBM's was more formidable, they had at least 50 DF-3 and maybe a dozen DF-21

DF-3 IRBM (Range: 3,100 km with 1x 3,3 Mt)
DF-21A IRBM (Range: 2,150 km with 1x 300 kt)

Depending on where they were launched both missiles could hit anywhere in the Soviet Far East, and also most of Siberia and Soviet Central Asia. China also had over 100 tactical ranged DF-15 SRBM with a range of 600 km that were nuclear capable.

The Chinese Navy had only one operations SSBN at this time, the single Xia Class with 12 J-1 SLBM with a range in the IRBM class. It was old and noisy and probably sunk early in the war. China's nuclear bomber force consisted of about 120 Xian-H-6, a Chinese built version of the Tupolev Tu-16. China's stock of air dropped nuclear bombs was about 20. The Xian H-6 would have been shot to pieces by the Soviet air defenses.

[Olefin]

In the mid-1990's the Chinese nuclear arsenal was very weak compared with the US and USSR in both real life and T2K timelines, and was in fact less capable than British and French nuclear forces. Even today it is still weak.

At this time China had two ICBM: DF-4 and DF-5.

DF-4 ICBM (Range: 5,500-7,000 km with 1x 3.3 Mt warhead)
DF-5 ICBM (Range: 12,000-15,000 km with 1x 4.5 Mt warhead)

The DF-4 was barely even an ICBM and could scarcely reach Moscow from the Chinese east coast. The DF-5 was a minimal Chinese strategic nuclear deterrent against both the US and USSR. Numbers for both missiles varies (from a dozen up to 40) but I doubt China had more than 25 of both missiles in total at this time.

China's force of IRBM's was more formidable, they had at least 50 DF-3 and maybe a dozen DF-21

DF-3 IRBM (Range: 3,100 km with 1x 3,3 Mt)
DF-21A IRBM (Range: 2,150 km with 1x 300 kt)

Depending on where they were launched both missiles could hit anywhere in the Soviet Far East, and also most of Siberia and Soviet Central Asia. China also had over 100 tactical ranged DF-15 SRBM with a range of 600 km that were nuclear capable.

The Chinese Navy had only one operations SSBN at this time, the single Xia Class with 12 J-1 SLBM with a range in the IRBM class. It was old and noisy and probably sunk early in the war. China's nuclear bomber force consisted of about 120 Xian-H-6, a Chinese built version of the Tupolev Tu-16. China's stock of air dropped nuclear bombs was about 20. The Xian H-6 would have been shot to pieces by the Soviet air defenses.

Completely agree on the weakness of the Chinese nuclear force - have a feeling the Soviets didnt stop them all - thats impossible - but compared to the hellstorm that hit the Chinese the damage they took was minor - maybe at most 2-5 nukes that actually got thru and definitely not any of the city busters

[Legbreaker]

Completely agree on the weakness of the Chinese nuclear force - have a feeling the Soviets didnt stop them all - thats impossible - but compared to the hellstorm that hit the Chinese the damage they took was minor - maybe at most 2-5 nukes that actually got thru and definitely not any of the city busters

Chinese mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit. Strike aircraft deliver warheads on the northern Chinese population and industrial centres still in Chinese hands. The Chinese response is immediate, but Soviet forward troop units are dispersed and well prepared. Ballistic missile attacks on Soviet population centres are frustrated by an active and efficient ABM system, and the Soviet Air Defence Command massacres the handful of Chinese bombers that attempted low-level penetration raids. Within a week, the Chinese riposte is spent, but Soviet attacks continue. The Chinese communication and transportation system, already stretched to the breaking point, disintegrates.The roads are choked with refugees fleeing from the remaining cities, all of them potential targets. China begins the rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder.

While the books certainly don't rule out a Chinese success here or there, the text definitely downplays the handful that did get through. Besides a few units hit by tactical warheads, the nukes were pretty much one way.
I'd be surprised if the Chinese attacks lasted the week mentioned above, and didn't die out after the first 24 hours or so. Ok, there may have been one or two after that, but those missiles are likely to have been delayed more due to technical reasons than a desire to wait for the right moment. Those last few were almost certainly sent off out of pure desperation and/or refusal by generals and politicians to accept they weren't just beaten, but obliterated.

[Olefin]

I would say that the successful attacks were on the Soviet troops - i.e.

"The Chinese response is immediate, but Soviet forward troop units are dispersed and well prepared."

Meaning the bombs got to target and caused damage - but we arent talking concentrated forces that got hit - dispersed and well prepared - meaning ok maybe a couple of nukes hit a Soviet division but instead of taking it out as intended its more like maybe one or two battalions took it on the chin but the rest were ok - and they had electronics shut down to avoid EMP damage and men dug in deep so basically unless you were at ground zero you made it

whereas the Chinese units were hit either in road formation or in combat formation on the move - i.e. not dug in, electronics on and able to be fried by EMP, etc.. "Chinese mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit."

about the only Soviet unit that really got hit was the 148th Motorized Rifle Division - nuked and thought to be destroyed by the Soviets in the fall of 1997 but may be survivors - i.e. either they didnt get the word in time or something happened that instead of pulled way back, dispersed and dug in they were fighting for their lives against the Chinese and the Soviet nukes took them out too - or their communications failed and it was a case of friendly fire - i.e. they were in the wrong place at the wrong time and got nuked instead of the Chinese unit the strike craft was supposed to hit

[Legbreaker]

I think that's a pretty good assessment overall. China as a whole got decimated while the Pact forces and homelands received a comparative rap on the knuckles.

[shrike6]

A source book would probably need to focus on the southern part of the country plus a bit of SE Asia (Vietnam, Cambodia, etc but excluding the island nations such as the Philippines and Indonesia) to fill the pages with just a cursory coverage of the north.

Didnt one of the books say that Vietnamese got involved in opening a southern front against the Chinese Im not at home to look it up.

[Legbreaker]

Didnt one of the books say that Vietnamese got involved in opening a southern front against the Chinese Im not at home to look it up.

Yes, it's mentioned in the Merc Gazetteer that

"In 1999, the forces of General Ch'en Mien-wu, warlord of Yunnan, invaded Vietnam, advancing down the Gam River valley with the intention of acquiring the city of Hanoi and the port of Haipong (Yunnan being landlocked and in need of access to the sea for economic reasons)."

Vietnam and Yunnan are far enough away from the fighting against the Pact that this is still possible in T2K, but with the lack of international, even regional trade occurring in T2K, and the obliteration of the bulk of Chinese forces (besides some lesser quality garrison type units) I think it's doubtful.
Advance the timeline at least five years though when the region has made some headway towards recovery and I think it becomes an interesting possibility.

[Olefin]

Actually if any of the Chinese forces would be intact it might be the ones along the Vietnamese border - they are ones that the Soviets would be highly unlikely to attack with nukes - mainly because they would be no threat to them - thus a warlord trying to attack Vietnam (as Leg said maybe in 2002-2003) that is the commander of those forces could be very plausible

[.45cultist]

I always laughed at "Peoples Liberation Army Navy". Just the name, not the organization itself.