OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Vespers War]

The next batch of aid to Ukraine will include 90 upgraded T-72 tanks from Czech Republic, half paid for by the US and half by the Dutch. Reuters claims they'll match the T-72 Avenger upgrade from earlier this year. 26 are supposed to be delivered by the end of 2022, with the remainder being delivered next year.

[Ursus Maior]

The Avenger upgrade looks very good on paper. The Czechs already did well with their own M4 upgrade of the T-72, too. So they know what they're doing and what can be done to a T-72 in general.

[Vespers War]

Avenger is a much less expensive upgrade than M4CZ, based on the allocated funds. Each Avenger is around $1 million to upgrade, while the M4CZ was around $5.2 million when the work was done almost 20 years ago (~$7.5-8 million in today's dollars), and they spent another $47 million a couple years ago replacing obsolete parts in the 30 tanks and 3 recovery vehicles. The outlay to upgrade the 90 T-72 to Avenger status would, as a very rough guess, be about enough to upgrade 12 tanks to T-72M4CZ.

[pmulcahy11b]

Avenger...that's a new one on me. New one to research...

[Ursus Maior]

@Vespers War
As you said, the M4CZ upgrade is around 20 years old, that alone makes prices incomparable, because of inflation on the one side and R&D on the other. What was terribly expansive in the early 2000s is now readily available. Also, if I remember correctly, the M4CZ upgrade included development of a new 125 mm APFSDS round, which would still be useful, but needs no money spent on R&D.

Avenger...that's a new one on me. New one to research...

The Avenger upgrade is very similar to the early upgrade called "Scarab", also done by the company named "Excalibur Army". Avenger T-72s include 196 ERA tiles with an alleged equivalent of 400 mm RHA, modernized night vision for all crew, a new LRF, fully passive night vision without the need for active IR (probably just for the gunner), a thermal sight with a ballistic computer, periscopal optics with laser protection, a new 840 HP power pack, a new digital driver's cockpit, a new fire protection system and new internal and external communications, including an encrypted digital radio.

I also presume, the 12.7 mm NSVT machine gun in a remotely controlled weapon station, which the Scarab fields, would be present with the Avenger, too. Also, the ERA bricks on the turret are hidden under a clean metal bodywork, altering the appearance of the turret significantly. The turret rear and sides, directly adjacent to the frontal ERA protection, are covered with SLAT armor bars, giving at least some protection against handheld AT systems, such as the ubiquitous RPG-7.

So, it's completely refurbished on the inside, including a new power pack, but the main weapon system seems to remain pretty standard.

[Vespers War]

I'm currently unconvinced about the ERA protection amount. That 400mm RHA equivalent would be Kontakt-1 levels of protection. Scarab mounted DYNA, which is closer to 600-650mm RHA equivalent on a T-72M1 hull. They certainly could be using Kontakt-1 if Ukraine requested it for logistical reasons, but Ukraine already imports Kontakt-1 from STV Group in Czech Republic, so either ERA system would require importing replacement tiles.

[Ursus Maior]

Yes, I was surprised about the rather low number of 400 mm RHA. It just seems so little today.

[pmulcahy11b]

Here's an interesting look at WWII weapons in use in Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=yDd8NFftuXI

[Raellus]

Kherson Liberated!

Back in March, who would have predicted Ukrainian forces liberating Kherson

Although I'm very happy for the UAF, I am doubtful that they can seize a sizeable bridgehead on the east bank. The Russians have spent the past few weeks digging in there, and any crossing attempt would be pounded by Russian artillery. This may be the high water mark of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region. Still...

Slava Ukraini!

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[Targan]

Back in March, who would have predicted Ukrainian forces liberating Kherson

Although I'm very happy for the UAF, I am doubtful that they can seize a sizeable bridgehead on the east bank. The Russians have spent the past few weeks digging in there, and any crossing attempt would be pounded by Russian artillery. This may be the high water mark of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region. Still...

Slava Ukraini!

-

Cross the river elsewhere and bypass and encircle the entrenched Russian forces. The Ukrainians seem to be very proficient at flanking maneuvers and interdiction of supply lines. Isolate Russian pockets and let them wither on the vine.

[Heffe]

This seems to be the clear path forward. If Ukraine ends up attacking into Crimea, they'll have to do it through the Melitopol path. Unless Ukraine has some magical way of instantly transporting huge numbers of Ukrainian soldiers across the Dnipro, it seems like that part of the front is going to become static for now. I imagine this will open up a number of forces on both sides however as it will be easier for both sides to defend the Dnipro with fewer troops. I don't see Ukraine making much headway in the south anytime soon as it gets reinforced with all of these soldiers from Kherson, but there might be a path up in the north.

[Raellus]

Cross the river elsewhere and bypass and encircle the entrenched Russian forces. The Ukrainians seem to be very proficient at flanking maneuvers and interdiction of supply lines. Isolate Russian pockets and let them wither on the vine.

That would be good, but any UAF attacking force would have a long, exposed flank and the Dnipro bisecting their MSR (we've seen how that impeded Russian resupply operations during the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive); the Russians, meanwhile, would have the interior lines of supply.

This seems to be the clear path forward. If Ukraine ends up attacking into Crimea, they'll have to do it through the Melitopol path. Unless Ukraine has some magical way of instantly transporting huge numbers of Ukrainian soldiers across the Dnipro, it seems like that part of the front is going to become static for now. I imagine this will open up a number of forces on both sides however as it will be easier for both sides to defend the Dnipro with fewer troops. I don't see Ukraine making much headway in the south anytime soon as it gets reinforced with all of these soldiers from Kherson, but there might be a path up in the north.

This seems the most likely next phase.

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[Ursus Maior]

Although I'm very happy for the UAF, I am doubtful that they can seize a sizeable bridgehead on the east bank. The Russians have spent the past few weeks digging in there, and any crossing attempt would be pounded by Russian artillery. This may be the high water mark of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region. Still...

-

The Ukrainians of course are already on the Eastern side of the Dnipro, since Russia never took the North of Zaporizhia oblast (including Zaporizhia itself) or indeed the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Hence, the Ukrainian forces are now in the comfortable position to either shift their forces in Kherson to Donbas or cross the Dnipro at Kherson, which is risky, because it's a wide river and the enemy is entrenched. However the enemy is also on the run and his forces consist mainly of untrained and inexperienced mobilized men.

A third option would be, to move through Zaporizhia oblast and cut into Melitopol in the South, where partisans have been fighting the Russians for months now. This would cut of southern Kherson and Crimea from Donbas and Southern Russia (Rostov-on-Don). Since the Kerch bridge will likely be down for month to come, that would necessitate to supply Crimea by sea, which likely means that support in any meaningful way is out of the question.

Personally, I think that the Ukrainians will want to pressure the Russians on as many fronts as possible at the same time, keeping them guessing on what happens next. If the Russians don't rally their troops soon in southern Kherson, their entrenchments will be useless and the Ukrainians can cross the river to establish a bridge head either at Nova Kakhovka or across from Nikopol.

Either way, the Russians are screwed and have been for a long time now. But the Kremlin has no way out. Basically, I think the Kremlin power circles will keep throwing their male population under the bus for as long as the current power structure remains in place.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

[Ursus Maior]

This seems to be the clear path forward. If Ukraine ends up attacking into Crimea, they'll have to do it through the Melitopol path. Unless Ukraine has some magical way of instantly transporting huge numbers of Ukrainian soldiers across the Dnipro, it seems like that part of the front is going to become static for now. I imagine this will open up a number of forces on both sides however as it will be easier for both sides to defend the Dnipro with fewer troops. I don't see Ukraine making much headway in the south anytime soon as it gets reinforced with all of these soldiers from Kherson, but there might be a path up in the north.

The Russians have few good troops left and even less equipment to reequip these forces. Melitopol seems the way to go for the Ukrainians I think, unless they assess the situation of the Russians on the other side of the Dnipro as so dire that crossing the river seems viable. I lack information on that, obviously.

But taking Melitopol would cut of southern Kherson and Crimea from the rest of Russian GLOCs and put the UAF in a position to encircle Russian forces or hit them in the rear (again) as they flee into Crimea. By then, Crimea would be yet another dead end, however, since the Kerch bridge remains out of operation. Also, taking Melitopol would allow Ukrainian forces to strengthen it's forces in Donbas.

This winter will bring a lot of action and as far as I read it, the Russians don't have enough winter equipment for their forces. Oh, the irony.

[Heffe]

The Russians have few good troops left and even less equipment to reequip these forces. Melitopol seems the way to go for the Ukrainians I think, unless they assess the situation of the Russians on the other side of the Dnipro as so dire that crossing the river seems viable. I lack information on that, obviously.

But taking Melitopol would cut of southern Kherson and Crimea from the rest of Russian GLOCs and put the UAF in a position to encircle Russian forces or hit them in the rear (again) as they flee into Crimea. By then, Crimea would be yet another dead end, however, since the Kerch bridge remains out of operation. Also, taking Melitopol would allow Ukrainian forces to strengthen it's forces in Donbas.

This winter will bring a lot of action and as far as I read it, the Russians don't have enough winter equipment for their forces. Oh, the irony.

I don't disagree at all, but targeting Melitopol is such an obvious move right now that I have to imagine Russia is reinforcing that direction as we speak, likely with troops from the Kherson Oblast (there and in the east near Bakhmut).

Some other observations -

• This is the first time in the war that the front has become just a static line without the Dnipro cutting it in half. and it's also reduced the length of the front line significantly. Any movement from either side at this point is going to be taxing that side's supply lines heavily while the other side will be free to respond largely without impediment.
• Ukraine is likely suffering more losses than any of us actually know. Paired with them having a far smaller military than Russia at the start of the invasion means that they have to play it much more conservatively with any attacks.
• Attacking Melitopol or pushing south will be a really hard campaign. Russia has had months to reinforce the direction, add mines and defensive fortifications, etc. Ukraine would need to have a resounding opportunity there to try for it since it would be such a big risk to their own units getting surrounded/cut off.
• Russia moving forces from Kherson east is going to increase pressure on their already taxed logistics hubs, and reduce the number of targets for HIMARs, which will only help Ukraine.
• Totally agreed that Russia is in big trouble with regard to winter approaching. If the rumors are true about their lack of cold weather gear, the first cold storm of the season is going to see Russians getting frostbite and taken out of action. This could definitely open some opportunities for Ukraine, especially once the ground freezes.

Overall, I see the war as being like a boxing match - an old heavyweight champ against a spry young fighter. The younger boxer took a couple of mean hits in the beginning of the fight, but has since been guarding, trying to wear the older fighter out. He's patient and smart - jabbing to the stomach, and then baiting the older fighter with feints and ducking in with heavy hits anytime the champ makes a mistake. This preserves his own energy while sapping the older boxer's energy. The young fighter's already won on points at this stage of the fight, but the older champ is still holding out hope for a stray knockout.

In this analogy, I don't see things changing a whole lot in the immediate future. Zelensky has done a really admirable job of restraining his own desires to push harder and risk his own forces on unnecessary assaults. I think Ukraine continues to hold for now and keeps hitting Russian logistics nodes while keeping its defenses tight, and then strikes hard when Russia makes mistakes. In short, anyone hoping for a big sudden push from Ukraine anytime in the near future is probably in for a disappointment. But once winter hits and parts of the Russian front begin to fall apart from lack of morale/winter clothing/supplies, we might see some great movement. Since Russia seems most intent in the east (that's where they claim they're making the most gains) they'll probably continue to reinforce the east to the detriment of the other directions -> future Ukrainian pushes will likely be up in the north near Svatove, or like you say, down near Melitopol. Personally I think we'll see a hard drive for Svatove first, but I'd be happy to be wrong if its in the south.