OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Vespers War]

Would be nice if that license was (possibly secretly) renewed. Know it will take some time to spool up but it would allow the Koreans to spare more of their current stocks (I have read that 288 were going to Poland early next year.)

Thanks for the info. Our denizens never disappoint me when I am looking for details on these types of subjects.

Congress killed the last renewal attempt in 2015, I believe because of the desire to remain in line with the international community regarding cluster munitions even if we wouldn't ratify the actual treaty about them.

The 288 systems being sold to Poland are K239 Chunmoo launchers for delivery between 2023 and 2027. They're a heavy truck-based launcher with 2 rocket pods, so think an M270-sized HIMARS. Each pod can carry one of a set of payloads:
20x131mm rocket (unguided, 36km range)
6xKM26A2 (unguided, 45km range)
6x239mm rocket (guided, 80km range)
Also in development are a 2x400mm rocket pod (guided, 200+ km range) and a single tactical ballistic missile pod (guided, 290km range). Both of these were publicly announced this year as development projects, but I don't know how far along they are (e.g. was development work done before they were announced). Poland is buying the 239mm rockets and the tactical ballistic missiles, with total numbers across the two ammunition types being reported as 23,000. I haven't seen it split out into how many of each type are being acquired. The Polish Chunmoo will be on a locally-manufactured truck chassis, a Jelcz 8x8, so they're getting at least some local industrial production out of the purchase.

There's not a whole lot of niche space for KM26A2 in that set of pods. The 131mm rockets have 80% of the range and enough numbers that they can saturate a target at least as well as the KM26A2, while the 239mm rocket has as much ammunition, nearly double the range, and is guided like GMLRS, as well as being in current production.

[Heffe]

Not to beat a dead horse, but there certainly were some other major differences between the Soviets in the 80s and the Russians of today, beyond what has already been mentioned.

Namely, that the equipment they were using at the time was far newer and NATO gear hadn't had 40 years to be purposefully designed to counter it. There was also far more of that equipment still in working order instead of thousands of systems rotting and rusting in empty fields. Plus, while the kleptocracy still existed, it's entirely possible that the other nations of the USSR would have supplemented additional organizational and logistical capacity beyond what we're seeing today in Ukraine. The Ukrainians themselves, for example.

Finally, IMO the T2k scenarios always depended pretty heavily on the idea of full mobilizations - millions of Soviets going into the field of battle, rather than the 300-400k the Russians have put into Ukraine thus far.

All in all, the T2k versions are all a bit far fetched, but it doesn't seem like an entirely fair comparison running the Soviets of the 80s up against the Russians of today.

[kato13]

US M2s to Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=313DBV2knwQ (First 2/3rds its probably stuff everyone here knows M2 History etc)

This video suggests that if the US sends M2s to Ukraine, It will send the 89 M2A2 (ODS) versions which are scheduled to be sent to Croatia this year. In the authors opinion, these particular units should be used not as IFVs but as artillery spotting vehicles. Due to the fact that with their GPS/Laser RF systems can instantly transmit target data to allied high precision artillery.

I will admit I did not think of this application, but it seems like a very good use.

What are your expectations if the US starts to send M2s to Ukraine

Added link about Croatia sale

https://militaryleak.com/2022/01/28/croatia-announces-deal-to-buy-bradley-m2a2-operation-desert-storm-ods-armored-fighting-vehicles/

[ToughOmbres]

Bradley FV's

US M2s to Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=313DBV2knwQ (First 2/3rds its probably stuff everyone here knows M2 History etc)

This video suggests that if the US sends M2s to Ukraine, It will send the 89 M2A2 (ODS) versions which are scheduled to be sent to Croatia this year. In the authors opinion, these particular units should be used not as IFVs but as artillery spotting vehicles. Due to the fact that with their GPS/Laser RF systems can instantly transmit target data to allied high precision artillery.

I will admit I did not think of this application, but it seems like a very good use.

What are your expectations if the US starts to send M2s to Ukraine

Added link about Croatia sale
https://militaryleak.com/2022/01/28/...ting-vehicles/

Either as FV's or for FO vehicles, once they complete familiarization, the Armed Forces of the Ukraine are certainly capable of operating them.

Less than one hundred will not be enough to dramatically shift the battlefield calculus although it might be enough to tip a crucial small sector here or there.

From a logistics standpoint, Ukraine is slowly becoming a logisticians nightmare. Not completely WP nor NATO, not complete West nor East but a hodgepodge. France is apparently sending wheeled AMX 10's soon-another platform to support. Even with western/NATO technical help or contractors this is eventually going to be a challenge at least in my view.

[Raellus]

Motley Motor Pool

What are your expectations if the US starts to send M2s to Ukraine

This piece offers a couple of different perspectives.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-what-bradley-fighting-vehicles-will-bring-to-the-fight-in-ukraine

From a logistics standpoint, Ukraine is slowly becoming a logisticians nightmare. Not completely WP nor NATO, not complete West nor East but a hodgepodge. France is apparently sending wheeled AMX 10's soon-another platform to support. Even with western/NATO technical help or contractors this is eventually going to be a challenge at least in my view.

I'm really curious as to how the AMX-10, a fairly unique late Cold War system (not many wheeled, gun-armed AT platforms out there), performs against Russian MBTs. To add to your point about logistical issues, TO, the AMX-10 isn't fitted with the NATO-standard L7 105mm gun (like Ukraine's new Slovenian upgraded T-55s is). Apparently, it uses "proprietary ammunition" instead of NATO standard.

I also read a piece fairly recently claiming that hundreds of captured Russian AFVs are sitting in Ukrainian warehouses because the Ukrainians don't have the spare parts to return them to operational status- and that's for PACT stuff that both countries have long operated! With its motley, polyglot collection of cast-off Western AFVs, I imagine that when one breaks down, it stays broken down for lack of spare parts (or until such time as another example can be cannibalized to provide said). I imagine that THIS would be a very common issue during the Twilight War.

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[Vespers War]

I'm really curious as to how the AMX-10, a fairly unique late Cold War system (not many wheeled, gun-armed AT platforms out there), performs against Russian MBTs. To add to your point about logistical issues, TO, the AMX-10 isn't fitted with the NATO-standard L7 105mm gun (like Ukraine's new Slovenian upgraded T-55s is). Apparently, it uses "proprietary ammunition" instead of NATO standard.

The AMX-10 RC uses a 105x527mm round instead of the NATO-standard 105x617mm. It's also an old round, with the APFSDS being of 1987 vintage, with a small penetrator even for that caliber and age, taking the existing dart from 90mm F3 ammunition and just putting that in a bigger shell. It'll penetrate a NATO Single Heavy Target at 1.2 kilometers and a Triple Heavy Target at 2.2 kilometers, with the latter designed to simulate shooting through an armored skirt, road wheel, and tank hull side. I don't think it will perform well against MBTs unless it ambushes them on a road march, but equipped with HE shells it should do nicely in an infantry support role while having some anti-tank capability if the right circumstances arise.

[Raellus]

Polish Leopards

The AMX-10 RC uses a 105x527mm round instead of the NATO-standard 105x617mm. It's also an old round, with the APFSDS being of 1987 vintage, with a small penetrator even for that caliber and age, taking the existing dart from 90mm F3 ammunition and just putting that in a bigger shell. It'll penetrate a NATO Single Heavy Target at 1.2 kilometers and a Triple Heavy Target at 2.2 kilometers, with the latter designed to simulate shooting through an armored skirt, road wheel, and tank hull side. I don't think it will perform well against MBTs unless it ambushes them on a road march, but equipped with HE shells it should do nicely in an infantry support role while having some anti-tank capability if the right circumstances arise.

If I haven't told you before, Vespers War, your wealth of technical knowledge is darned impressive. Thanks.

Since you posted, I've seen 3 or 4 headlines from major media outlets along the lines of, "France sends these tank killers to Ukraine" (in reference to the AMX-10 RC). I wish the media did more due diligence before publishing. Hyperbole gets views, but it can also be very misleading.

In other news...

It looks like we might soon see how the Leopard 2, arguably one of the best MBT designs of the late Cold War period, stacks up against Russian armor of the same era, and later. The UK is also considering giving Challenger 2s to Ukraine. With their 120mm smoothbores, both are definitely legit tank-killers.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/poland-is-ready-to-send-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine

There's no doubt that Ukraine will need these kinds of systems if it is going to continue to liberate its Russian-held territory. I do wonder how Russia will respond as more and more patently offensive-oriented heavy weapon systems continue making their way into Ukrainian hands. One can reasonably argue that towed artillery, AAA/SAM systems, and ATGMs are primarily defensive weapons. It's much harder to make that argument for M2 Bradleys, Marders, and Leo IIs. I worry that a flood of potent offensive weaponry will trigger Putin to threaten escalation, especially of the tactical nuclear variety, against what he perceives as a growing threat to Mother Russia's territorial integrity.

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[kato13]

The Leopards (I or II) will be a nice addition.

Odd discovery. I have been pronouncing the tank name wrong for 4 decades, as leh-paRd. However I heard General Petraeus (who I would think is light years better informed than I) says it as Lee-oh-pard.

Google and youtube confirm.

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=SzT8mlh-jIU

[ToughOmbres]

Leopard MBT

The Leopards (I or II) will be a nice addition.

Odd discovery. I have been pronouncing the tank name wrong for 4 decades, as leh-paRd. However I heard General Petraeus (who I would think is light years better informed than I) says it as Lee-oh-pard.

Google and youtube confirm.
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=SzT8mlh-jIU

That was certainly how the Bundeswehr officer and NCO's I was around pronounced it. They were slightly bemused when I pronounced it in the American "Leh-perd" or "Leh-pard".

The Austrian Bundesheer NCO's I was around had a similar pronounciation for the MBT.
Funny Fact-my (limited) northern accented German sounded so strange to the Austrians it was practically unintelligible to them. Their medic asked me if I was having a stroke.
They appreciated I was speaking German but couldn't understand much of it-another wondered if I was Swiss.

[Spartan-117]

Funny Fact-my (limited) northern accented German sounded so strange to the Austrians it was practically unintelligible to them. Their medic asked me if I was having a stroke.
They appreciated I was speaking German but couldn't understand much of it-another wondered if I was Swiss.

hehe... I've had conversations in India where English was being translated to English, because the accents of the primary speakers were so unintelligible to each other, it required a third party who had experience with both.

[ToughOmbres]

hehe... I've had conversations in India where English was being translated to English, because the accents of the primary speakers were so unintelligible to each other, it required a third party who had experience with both.

I can see (and hear) that. "One people, separated by a common language."

[Spartan-117]

I can see (and hear) that. "One people, separated by a common language."

TK... It is like that only...

(the Indian version of 'It is what it is')

[ToughOmbres]

Leopard II MBT's

The Leopards (I or II) will be a nice addition.

Odd discovery. I have been pronouncing the tank name wrong for 4 decades, as leh-paRd. However I heard General Petraeus (who I would think is light years better informed than I) says it as Lee-oh-pard.

Google and youtube confirm.
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=SzT8mlh-jIU

US MLRS and M2 Bradley IFV's, UK Challenger's, FRG Leopard II's, French AMX-10's-the Ukraine is beginning to resemble a NATO composite battle group in equipment terms-minus the actual soldiers and support staff. A battlefield "slice" if you will of the Alliance.

[Spartan-117]

US MLRS and M2 Bradley IFV's, UK Challenger's, FRG Leopard II's, French AMX-10's-the Ukraine is beginning to resemble a NATO composite battle group in equipment terms-minus the actual soldiers and support staff. A battlefield "slice" if you will of the Alliance.

Like a 90's battle group...

We'd clean the Ruzzian's clock if NATO was unleashed on them with current equipment, professional troops, and unconstrained logistics.

[Targan]

We'd clean the Ruzzian's clock if NATO was unleashed on them with current equipment, professional troops, and unconstrained logistics.

Indeed. Were it not for the threat of armageddon, I'd love to see that happen.