Mexican Army Sourcebook

[Turboswede]

I just sent Paul my Polish Army Sourcebook and revised V2 timeline and I am currently working on a Mexican Army Sourcebook as a follow up. Its hard to reconcile the T2K images of Mexican tanks across the Rio Grande given the equipment levels of the Mexican Army as of 1996 per Janes Armor & Artillery. I mean really, how would Mexico invade America with M3 and M5 tanks that were marginal performers in 1945 I know that the invasion was supposedly to have occurred after the 1997 nuclear exchange, but I think the City of Dallas police department has more armor than the Mexican army (they both use the LAV-150). Seriously, the exhibits at the Yuma proving grounds museum would have a good chance of repelling a Mexican invasion.

I like the concept of a Mexican invasion though and would like to include it in any T2K US scenario so the Mexican Army needs a good overhaul. I figure some good old Peronist nationalism / militarism needs to be infused into the Mexicans sometime in the late 80s. I am going with the premise that the Mexican military/political establishment could have cozy up to the Germans prior to unification and entered into an agreement for domestic production of armored vehicles. If production were moderate then I dont think the US would have raised any objections, especially if the decision to oemodernize the armed forces came at the tail end of the 80s when the cold war was still going strong. I picked the Germans because I know a bit about the TAM project and the support Germany provided to Argentina following the Malvinas war.

I guess France could work too, but the Leopard I is sooooooooooo much better than the AMX-30, why would anyone have bought a tank with such a soft skinbut I digress. Another option would be the US (or maybe Spain) setting up an M48 production line for the Mexicans. I avoided this route because I would think a Nationalist Mexico would want to discourage reliance on U.S. designs.

Anyway, I would like any ideas about how Mexicos arms procurement policies could have led to a force capable of sending oearmored columns across the Rio Grande (per the original rule sets)

[weswood]

I don't know about the Mexican Arms Procurement policy, but what about Mexican Special Forces types in conjunction with La Familia/MS 13 sneaking across the border with the mass of immigrants. Said forces then sabotaging the US forces supply chain so that US forces were unable to respond in time to repel the Mexican Armed Forces.

[Turboswede]

Said forces then sabotaging the US forces supply chain so that US forces were unable to respond in time to repel the Mexican Armed Forces.

Point taken, but there still needs to be some kind of Mexican Armed Forces. As it stands a single M60A3 with an ERA package (for the odd Milan) could pretty much take out the whole Mexican army circa real world 1996. Without some kind of force I think one could justify a terror campaign or even a guerrilla war (although in the desert thats a tough one), but not an invasion capturing California, Arizona, New Mexico and most of Texas.

[kato13]

The Mexican Invasion is one of the three hardest points for me to reconcile (The Alaskan invasion and failure of US Continuance of government plan being the others). I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

The only thing I can imagine the Mexicans having an advantage in is fuel and therefore mobility. Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive. One they are attacking the US's primary ADA school , and two the aircraft they have are generations behind what the US could send to counter them, even taking into account limited fuel.

[Turboswede]

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

I never thought of that, maybe it was the French

[Turboswede]

Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive.

Um, thats just funny.

Combat aircraft constituting the Mexican Air Amada, Circa 1996
10 F-5E Tiger II
2 F-5F Advanced trainers
12 AT-33s Jet trainers
12 Bell 205, 206, and 212 armed helicopters

I agree, I seriously doubt that Mexican airpower would have been decisive.

[Fusilier]

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

How about Sovs hit to deny to USA the fuel... blame the USA. How is Mexico going to know the truth The book also states they elect a marxist government so they may be more willing to believe Moscow as opposed to the Imperialists.

The only thing I can imagine the Mexicans having an advantage in is fuel and therefore mobility. Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive. One they are attacking the US's primary ADA school , and two the aircraft they have are generations behind what the US could send to counter them, even taking into account limited fuel.

Slow build up from allies... particularly Cuba Not the Cuba of today, but the Cuba of the 80s. That's where the tanks, artillery and aircraft come from. Add in some Nicaraguans and maybe even Venezuela (if you want to advance what's his name's ascension to power.

[kato13]

How about Sovs hit to deny to USA the fuel... blame the USA. How is Mexico going to know the truth The book also states they elect a marxist government so they may be more willing to believe Moscow as opposed to the Imperialists.

I fully agree that 95% of the population including parts of the Civilian leadership could be convinced of this, but I would expect the higher-ups in the military would have serious doubts.

[Benjamin]

I think the only way to have the Mexican invasion happen is to assume that oil paid for a military build up some time during the late eighties/ early nineties. The price of oil went up during this time giving Mexico the ability to partially recover, and perhaps pay for a rebuilt military. The 1988 presidential elections were very controversial due to a computer failure in the election process and it is possible that President Salinas, who was already deemed a fraud by some could end up assassinated. This would cause chaos and open the door for a national socialist to take power on an anti-American platform.

During the nuclear exchange, I've always assumed it was the Soviet that struck the Mexican refineries. First of all, despite Division Cuba, which seems to be a rushed on the fly commitment, there is no way the Soviets can benefit from Mexican oil. Second there is a good chance that the Soviets already had nukes targeted on Mexico during the actual Cold War. Finally, I just don't see the US nuking a non-nuke neighbor especially given the chain of command chaos occurring within the US.

As for arming Mexico...
MBT: OF-40, an Italian designed and built export MBT. It was similar to, and even used some parts from the Leo 1. In our timeline only the UAE purchased it.

The remaining vehicles could come from a mix of countries but I think they'd primarily be from Italy, France and perhaps Brazil.

Benjamin

[Raellus]

Just to play devil's advocate/v1.0 canon apologist, here are a couple things to think about.

Although not a match for an M60, the Mexicans do have quite a few Panhard ERC-90 Lynx armored cars with 90mm guns and several Panhard VBL M-11 light armored cars fitted with Milan ATGMs.

With their recent history of buying AFVs from France, I can see them buying the French Army's old AMX-30 (being replaced in French service by the LeClerc) MBTs (this is the most logical MBT procurement options listed here, IMO).

They also use the German HWK-11 tracked APC (sources suggest they've got around 40 of them). I can see the Germans building and/or retrofitting some of them with high velocity 90mm or 105mm turreted guns, creating de facto tanks.

The Mexicans retired their M4 Shermans quite some time ago but I can see them paying (w/ high priced oil export revenues) the Israelis (experts at getting the most out of the Sherman tank) to soup them up. Upgunned Israeli Shermans routinely knocked out T-54/55 and T-62 tanks during the '73 Yom Kippur War.

There's always the Chinese. A lot of the tanks (mostly Soviet T-rip-offs) they build are marketed for export. I'm sure Mexico could have bought a bunch before the the Russo-Chinese War began.

I also like the idea of other Central/South American nations sending "expeditionary forces" to Mexico to assist in an offensive against the U.S.

Also, as Wes said, Mexican Army SF would have infiltrated dozens of teams across the rather porous border in the months and weeks prior to the invasion. They would launch a series of attacks against C&C and transportation networks immediately preceding the conventional invasion.

I was researching this same topic a few months ago and came across these sites. I hope they prove useful to you.

http://www.paperlessarchives.com/mexico.html

http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/mxtoc.html

Lastly, perhaps the Soviets approached the Mexicans with promises of economic and military aid (Division Cuba being the down payment) in a sort of Zimmerman Note parallel.

[Turboswede]

Thanks everyone. The more I think about it the more I could see the Mexicans taking France's AMX-30s. I am sure that the French would unload them at a bargain price (always important to SEDENA). Granted, the T-55 and Chinese Type 59 are arguably better tanks (better armor, similar mobility, worse gun) but I think the US would have vehemently opposed any arms transfers from the Warsaw Pact or PRC to Mexico, especially in the late 80s. The nice thing about France is that we are nominal allies, but we let the French sell arms to just about anyone.

I think the Mexican version of the AMX-30 would need ERA. Without it they would never get past San Diego or El Paso. Every 16 year old kid would be punching holes in them with M72s.

For the APC/IFV I think they could make some pretty cool derivatives of the oeDN series which is basically a LAV-150. Put a 25mm cannon and a Milan on it and you have a good IFV, etc. Only problem is wheels vs. tracks, I dont think that would be a major problem in the desert/urban setting (look at how we employ LAVs in Iraq).

[Benjamin]

Buying from France is probably the way to go for Mexico. Perhaps they could augment the piss poor AMX-30s with a regiment of AMX-40s, an improved version offered solely for export.

As for a fifth column of Mexicans arising in America, I don't buy it. Most Mexicans, especially in the pre-Fox era, came to the US because it wasn't Mexico and they had no particular love for the Mexican government or socialism. Pro-Mexican infiltrators are a possibility but may end up not being super reliable for the Mexican military.

Depending on when and how the Mexican government went socialist, there is the possibility of an interesting campaign based along the Mexican-American border. Unrest in Mexico, especially involving a mix of drug lords and socialists, could prompt a level of American intervention. With the advent of war in Asia and Europe attention would turn elsewhere and Mexico, bitter over American meddling, would be left to its own devices. From there it could escalate into a civil war in Mexico and a guerrilla war in the Southwest US. When the Mexican invasion finally occurs the few forces left along the Mexican border would be hard pressed to halt any type of offensive.

And remember the Mexican Civil War began prior to the invasion of the US. It was the Civil War that prompted the flood of immigrants that traveled into America. Given that America had been hit by nukes and was in a deplorable state of affairs, one can surmise that the Mexican Civil War was a particularly bitter affair which brutalized the civilian population. Given what we've seen from communists elsewhere (Pol Pot, Idi Amin, Stalin and so on) its not hard to believe that living in a war ravaged America still looked great compared to the hell that was communist held Mexico.

Benjamin

[Turboswede]

My timeline is based off of the V2 version and assumes that communism faded away after 1990. I like the idea of a right-wing ultra nationalist Mexico invading the US to protect ethnic Mexicans from the gringos up north. Besides, the bad guys in Latin America have always historically been on the nationalist right (Pinochet, Molina, Videla, Mart-nez de Per3n, etc.)

Another catch with the Mexican invasion is that the peace time army in 1995 was roughly 10% Hispanic, assuming that Hispanics would enlist and be drafted at a similar rate, that would mean every squad would have one guy who would be perceived as a possible traitor. Not very good for morale I would think.

[Raellus]

Buying from France is probably the way to go for Mexico. Perhaps they could augment the piss poor AMX-30s with a regiment of AMX-40s, an improved version offered solely for export.

Good call. Perhaps, as part of the same arms deal, Mexico could have acquired a squadron's worth of Mirage 2000s. This would go a very little ways to address the gross imbalance in the air but at least it's something.

As for a fifth column of Mexicans arising in America, I don't buy it. Most Mexicans, especially in the pre-Fox era, came to the US because it wasn't Mexico and they had no particular love for the Mexican government or socialism. Pro-Mexican infiltrators are a possibility but may end up not being super reliable for the Mexican military.

I don't think anyone is suggesting a 5th Column. The idea is that Mexican army commandos would cross the border ahead of the offensive. If drug and people smugglers can do it, why can't Mexican SF They would come across dressed in civilian garb. If caught without weapons, they'll claim to be illegal migrants. If caught with weapons, they're smugglers. I live in Southern Arizona and illegal border crossings happen every day.

One last thought: When the Mexicans invade, the U.S. is in a state of disarray due to the TDM strikes. Also, its best and brightest have already deployed to Europe, Korea, and CENTCOM is preparing to deploy to the Middle East. So, the Mexican army, primed and ready and miraculously achieving strategic and/or operation surprise, would have at least a little combat experience (at least in the officer corps) with campaigns against the Zapatista rebels in Southern Mexico and the long-running campaign against Mexicos narco-cartels.

Also, expect the Mexicans to be pumped up on nationalist sentiment (regardless of whether it's a left or right wing gov. in charge)- "let's take back what is rightfully ours!"

[Targan]

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

Last week someone pointed out that SLBMs launched at France would allow an attacker to plausibly deny having nuked Franch targets.So whether or not it was the Soviets that nuked Mexico, if they denied it how would the Mexicans know any better